2013 Elections in Germany

[Middle-aged Europe]

^^

While being less likely than CDU/SPD and probably also SPD/Greens, I happen to think that the chances of a CDU/FDP revival (/survival) are generally underestimated. If you take the latest Emnid/Infratest polls and add a percent to the FDP's numbers, black-yellow isn't that far from winning another majority again.

[Franzl]

I dunno, I have trouble seeing the Union actually stay at 40%. I think Steinbrück can only go up with swing voters (not that there are many in Germany) at the moment.

I don't doubt the FDP will make it back into the Bundestag. Actually, I think it's very likely...but the left-wing would really have to implode for the current government to be re-elected...

[Franzl]

26.12.2012, Forsa, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU 41
SPD 27
Grüne 13
Linke 8

FDP 4
Piraten 3

SPD-Green with no majority (40-49).

If the FDP were 1% higher, black-yellow would almost be re-elected (46-48).

[Tender Branson]

New Berlin Forsa poll:

state



federal

[jaichind]

Wow.  FDP now is part of "other" in Berlin.

[Kitteh]

Wow.  FDP now is part of "other" in Berlin.

And Left and Greens are up and Pirates are almost out. I'm liking this election (as opposed to the federal one which sucks).

[Franknburger]

26.12.2012, Forsa, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU 41
SPD 27
Grüne 13
Linke 8

FDP 4
Piraten 3

SPD-Green with no majority (40-49).

If the FDP were 1% higher, black-yellow would almost be re-elected (46-48).

Usual seasonal bumps. College students and young professionals are visiting their parents over Christmas (and high-school teachers are off to Crete or La Gomera for a bit of sun), so SPD and Greens drop by a point, while the CDU gains a bit. Wait until late January, when the well-off pensioneeers cruise the Caribbeans or take their annual spa treatment in the Czech Republic and Hungary, and you will have the CDU at 38%, while the SPD is back at 30%, and Greens at 15%.

The only interesting thing appears to be a slight move from the SPD towards the Left - not surprising, as Steinbrück is anything but a left-leaning SPD candidate.

[Tender Branson]

There are just 2 words that explain why the Berlin-SPD has fallen behind the CDU:

"Fucked-up Airport"

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wait, why are they having another election in Berlin so early?

[Franzl]

Wait, why are they having another election in Berlin so early?

They aren't.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wait, why are they having another election in Berlin so early?

They aren't.

So why poll a local election which is 3 or 4 years away?

[Tender Branson]

Wait, why are they having another election in Berlin so early?

They aren't.

So why poll a local election which is 3 or 4 years away?

Because the main newspapers in the states want some polls once in a while.

Usually, if the election is just over you already see a new poll within a few months already.

In Germany and here as well ...

[Antonio the Sixth]

I see.

[Tender Branson]

Hahaha, poor Steinbrück:

Steinbrück: Merkel gets 'women's bonus' in polls

Peer Steinbrück, SPD challenger to Angela Merkel in next year's election, has committed a second PR blunder in two days. After complaining that chancellors get paid too little, he said Merkel's popularity was down to a "women's bonus."

"Angela Merkel is loved because she gets a women's bonus," Steinbrück told the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung newspaper.

The statement was part of a slightly clumsy attempt to praise his election opponent, during which he said that female voters in particular admired Merkel's career trajectory.

He said the chancellor had "asserted herself in a men's world, seems very unpretentious and presents herself very modestly," which he said were all qualities that those who traditionally voted for his Social Democratic Party valued too.

"But that doesn't mean that I'm seen as the 'God help us' candidate," he added.

Steinbrück also said that he did not intend to adapt his own presentation style in the upcoming election campaign to counteract Merkel's "advantages."

"That would just be exposed as play-acting anyway," he said, before arguing that elections weren't won by popularity in any case. Steinbrück pointed out that, as state premier of North-Rhine Westphalia in 2005, he had been ahead of his election opponent Jürgen Rüttgers in the popularity polls, but had still lost the election.

The SPD candidate's faux pas comes close on the heels of Saturday's complaint that the German chancellor is paid too little for the amount of responsibility he or she has. "Almost every bank director in North-Rhine Westphalia earns more than the chancellor," he told the FAS.

http://www.thelocal.de/politics/20121230-47045.html

[RogueBeaver]

This guy is even more of a self-parody than Romney, albeit from the other side of the aisle. An SPD candidate supposed to represent blue-collar voters saying that he'd be underpaid... in comparison to bankers. Then saying his female opponent's female supporters vote their gender. I don't know if Germany has a political satire show like Private Eye or SNL but if they do this would be a marvelous skit. Cause you couldn't make this sh**t up.

At least he's basically resigned to losing, so not totally detached from political reality.

[minionofmidas]

I don't know if Germany has a political satire show like Private Eye or SNL

It's called the SPD.

[DC Al Fine]

What the heck happened to the SPD to make them so bad?

[Antonio the Sixth]

What the heck happened to the SPD to make them so bad?

That's what happens when you stand for nothing. The SPD as a party has the same problem Romney had as a person. They have no convictions, so nothing to say, so they have to figure out on their own what to say... except they are idiots, thus what they come up with ends up being a gaffe.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Eh, plenty of politicians suffer from chronic foot-in-mouth syndrome; probably best to separate Steinbrück's rather severe case of that condition (which has been known about for many years anyway) from the SPD's structural difficulties.

[Franknburger]

Eh, plenty of politicians suffer from chronic foot-in-mouth syndrome; probably best to separate Steinbrück's rather severe case of that condition (which has been known about for many years anyway) from the SPD's structural difficulties.

Well, I knew from the start that with Steinbrück, things would not be easy. He single-handedly killed a reasonably working red-green coalition in North-Rhine Westphalia, just to find himself on the opposition bench after a historically unprecedented CDU-FDP win of the subsequent state election. But these two gaffes in a row go beyond my wildest expectations ..

One more reason to look for a black-green coalition in 2013 as the only feasible way to get some issues moved foreward in Germany. The last thing I want to see at the moment is Peer Steinbrück as Foreign Minister of a Grand Coalition - we Germans have already enough problems in the international (Euro) arena...

My prediction for the coming opinion polls:
CDU 40%  (-1, as the Christmas holiday bump recedes)
SPD 27% (no change, as post-Christmas upswing is eaten away by Steinbrück's gaffes)
Greens 15% (+2, half of it post-Christmas upswing, other half thanks to Steinbrück)
Linke 9% (+1%, thanks to Steinbrück)
FDP 4% (unchanged), maybe getting 5% due to Steinbrück)
Pirates 3% (unchanged), others 2%

[mubar]

So why poll a local election which is 3 or 4 years away?

As has been said, the newspapers want new polls to publish once in a while. In addition, state elections and satisfaction with state governments really are a big deal in a federal country, unlike in an unitary state. State elections in Germany or Austria are therefore not local elections - elections in cities normally would be local, but Berlin is a city state. And of course in any parliamentary system you're going to see a lot of party support polls at any point of the electoral cycle, which is different from a presidential system like France where the person who holds the presidency is most important and the exact level of support for political parties comparatively less crucial.

In Berlin, it's the local newspaper Berliner Zeitung which wants a poll every month and so Forsa conducts that for them. There is also a poll conducted by Infratest dimap every few months for another paper Berliner Morgenpost and for the local public broadcaster RBB.

Incidentally, the Forsa/BZ polls have not had FDP as separate entry since December 2011. For them, FDP in Berlin state elections is firmly among "Others". However the competing polls from Infratest dimap have shown the state FDP consistently at 2% during the year 2012 too. Since the "Others" in Forsa polls are at 8-9% while their share in Infratest polls is more like 5 or 6%, it seems clear that Forsa also polls FDP at around 2%, but when publishing the results Berliner Zeitung chooses to not show that and instead shoves the party in the Others column. Not that two percent would be anything to be particularly happy about, either...

[Peter the Lefty]

Never thought I'd say this, but I'm praying for another black-yellow majority, and for the SPD to get shattered.  It's exactly what it deserves.

[Tender Branson]

New Brandenburg poll by Forsa for the MAZ:

Federal

28% [+3] SPD
27% [+3] CDU
26%  [-3] Left
  7% [+1] Greens
  4%  [-5] FDP
  3%  [nc] Pirates
  5% [+1] Others

Merkel leads Steinbrück by 51-22 in her "home state".

State

36% [+3] SPD
24%  [-3] Left
22% [+2] CDU
  7% [+1] Greens
  3%  [-4] FDP
  2% [+2] Pirates
  6%  [-1] Others

http://www.maerkischeallgemeine.de/cms/beitrag/12447543/62249/MAZ-Umfrage-Kanzlerin-liegt-vor-Gegenkandidat-Steinbrueck-SPD.html

[Franknburger]

New Brandenburg poll by Forsa for the MAZ:

Federal

28% [+3] SPD
27% [+3] CDU
26%  [-3] Left
  7% [+1] Greens
  4%  [-5] FDP
  3%  [nc] Pirates
  5% [+1] Others

Merkel leads Steinbrück by 51-22 in her "home state".

Merkel's 'home state'? You might say so, considering she grew up in Brandenburg - and was born in Hamburg, studied in Saxony (Leipzig), worked in Berlin pre-1990, then in Bonn (NRW)  ..

But her constituency is in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (since 1990), where her second husband works and resides. That state's interests is also what she is pushing forward - G8 summit in Heiligendamm, promoting wind energy (NORDEX is Mecklenburg's largest company by turnover), supporting shipbuilding deals with Russia, etc. So, the common German perception would be Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, not Brandenburg being Merkel's home state.

[Tender Branson]

New Brandenburg poll by Forsa for the MAZ:

Federal

28% [+3] SPD
27% [+3] CDU
26%  [-3] Left
  7% [+1] Greens
  4%  [-5] FDP
  3%  [nc] Pirates
  5% [+1] Others

Merkel leads Steinbrück by 51-22 in her "home state".

Merkel's 'home state'? You might say so, considering she grew up in Brandenburg - and was born in Hamburg, studied in Saxony (Leipzig), worked in Berlin pre-1990, then in Bonn (NRW)  ..

But her constituency is in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (since 1990), where her second husband works and resides. That state's interests is also what she is pushing forward - G8 summit in Heiligendamm, promoting wind energy (NORDEX is Mecklenburg's largest company by turnover), supporting shipbuilding deals with Russia, etc. So, the common German perception would be Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, not Brandenburg being Merkel's home state.

I know. That's why I wrote "home state", not home state.