2013 Elections in Germany

[Famous Mortimer]

If the FDP want to increase their support, they need to re-define what they stand for. It seems like right now they're trying to be vague as possible and let voters project what they want. That might work with the Pirates or Beppe Grillo, who are seeking a young, angry, protest voters but not with a bunch of pro-business technocrats.

[Famous Mortimer]

Two questions/musings:

Chances that the Greens come out ahead of the SPD in Bavaria?

Chances that the Greens come out ahead of the SPD in the Federal election?

Bonus question musing:

Chances that the CDU/CSU wins in the high 40s in the Federal election and wins an outright majority of seats?

[Famous Mortimer]

Is there something going on with the Greens and pedos?

[Famous Mortimer]

The FDP has very few real supporters, when it does well, it's getting votes from CDU supporters. When the CDU is very popular like it is now, those supporters are less likely to cross over.

[Famous Mortimer]

Can someone please explain the Green pedo scandal? I've been trying to find it in the old comments but I'm having some trouble.

[Famous Mortimer]

I thought AfD were wonkish libertarians. I wouldn't expect wonkish libertarians to do well in a former Communist country.

Are there actually far-right elements hiding in the party? Or are they just happen to let far-right voters project onto them?

[Famous Mortimer]

Let me make sure I'm understanding you guys right when you talk about how the CDU has changed.

Are you saying:

The CDU used to be a socially conservative party that embraced the mixed economy.

Under Merkel it's a socially liberal party that wants to implement mild liberal reforms to the economy?

[Famous Mortimer]

There won't be a Red-Red-Green government because the SPD are stupid.

[Famous Mortimer]

There won't be a Red-Red-Green government because the SPD are stupid.

If there was a RRG coalition, the SPD would likely drop below 20% at the next federal election.

You said this even before the election though. Why would a government with Die Linke make them go below 20%? Let's assume hypothetically that SPD, Die Linke, and the Greens had won 51%.

[Famous Mortimer]

It's not a glaringly obvious in this case because 1) Germany has a history of grand coalitions and 2) AfD didn't actually make it into parliament but really this is another example of the shift towards protest parties making an ideological government impossible.

It's the same thing that happened in Italy, the Czech Republic, The Netherlands, Belgium, and Greece.

Although some of those cases are worse than others, there's a clear trend of traditional right or left governments being unable to achieve majorities due to protest parties.

This is seriously starting to be a real problem and it's only going to get worse. Something needs to be done. A switch to a presidential system would be the most obvious fix but that's probably too radical.

[Famous Mortimer]

I have counted now: It seems that 20 members of the new Left caucus have been members of the SED, but some (2 or 3) have only been after the "turn" and three of them have no wikipedia article or bundestag.de article yet and don't state an SED membership on their sites, but have taken seats for the PDS at communal level in 1990, so this is likely, but does not need to be true and the count of "Left caucus members that have been in the SED before the "turn" my fall to 14 of 64. 18 is the most likely number.

How many of those 14-18 were in positions of power?

[Famous Mortimer]

So they lost almost half their votes in Saarland.

[Famous Mortimer]

I don't see how a Merkel minority government works when every other party in parliament can clearly be considered opposition.

I mean, a red-green minority tolerated by the Left works because their programs are relatively similar, even if they dislike each other.

This.

Aren't most minority governments these days establishment parties being tolerated by extremist parties they share an ideology with but don't want to be formally linked to?