What happened to Obama in Appalachia?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Only three counties have never voted Republican.

Elliott, KY
Brooks, TX
Washington, DC

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Only three counties have never voted Republican.

Elliott, KY
Brooks, TX
Washington, DC

South Texas has changed amazingly little in its voting/demographic history. It's almost always been heavily Mexican, very Democratic, and very poor.

[Landslide Lyndon]

There are lies, damned lies, and statistics, my friends. 

They should make room for one more category: Oldie's posts.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

The swing in 2008 was a mix of racist sentiment, Hillary butthurt, and coal. In 2012 it was almost entirely coal (if not for the Clintons, I suspect Obama would have fared even worse in Appalachia).

Obama and Kerry have the exact same position on abortion.  Where are you even getting this?

In fact, Obama ran to the right of Kerry in 2008 on gun control (see D.C. handgun ban ruling) and capital punishment (Kerry opposed it except for terrorists, while Obama also favored it for murderers and repeat child rapists).  Of course this is offset with progress made on alleviating the cocaine / crack sentencing disparity, repealing DADT, a more humanitarian immigration policy, etc., but it is not as though Obama was running as somehow more 'liberal' than Kerry.  The reason these areas swung against him was largely discomfort with the cultural image he would project in representing the United States.  We saw rural dixiecratic Tennessee massively swing towards Romney this year, after a huge swing to McCain.  Indeed, given that all of these areas, especially coal country, have been swinging and trending Republican in every election since 2000, it can only be assumed that whether or not a new Democratic candidate has some slight deviation to the prior standard-bearer's orthodoxy, the voters in these places are not going to suddenly become more receptive.

First, how do you prove that Appalachia is as racist as it might have been in the past?  And secomd, Obama was the only State Senator in Illinois to oppose the Born Alive Infant Protection Act.  That sounds pretty far-left on abortion to me.  And even if he wasn't further left than Kerry, he was perceives that way.  And what is "rural Dixiecratic Tennessee?"  Most of the Appalachian regions in Tennessee are heavily Republican and have been since the Civil War.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I seriously have a tough time believing that some Illinois State Senate bill I have not heard of until now was the reason for such a swing in 2008. It never came up in the campaign.

Take a look at the county swing maps, Appalachia CLEARLY stands out. There were plenty of socially conservative areas to swing heavily to Obama, Upper South and Appalachia are the exceptions, these also voted heavily against Obama in the primary. The reason becomes kind of obvious. Stating that this was simply due to Obama being far to the left of Kerry is not only based on inaccurate premise but doesn't hold up everywhere, it's almost as bad as J. J.'s argument for the Bradley Effect.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Obama might be a little to the left of Kerry, but he's certainly well to the left of the Clintons. Obama said he opposed school uniforms in an argument with Rahm Emanuel.

Obama is a better candidate regardless, because he's better at explaining his positions. But that doesn't do much good in rural Appalachia, where young adults are leaving by the thousands.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Oldies: Yes, much of Eastern Tennessee has been heavily Republican since the Civil War. However, parts of east-central Tennessee, as well as rural areas west of Nashville, are historically Democratic, and had heavy swings against Obama in 2008 (and 2012 to a lesser extent).

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I seriously have a tough time believing that some Illinois State Senate bill I have not heard of until now was the reason for such a swing in 2008. It never came up in the campaign.

Take a look at the county swing maps, Appalachia CLEARLY stands out. There were plenty of socially conservative areas to swing heavily to Obama, Upper South and Appalachia are the exceptions, these also voted heavily against Obama in the primary. The reason becomes kind of obvious. Stating that this was simply due to Obama being far to the left of Kerry is not only based on inaccurate premise but doesn't hold up everywhere, it's almost as bad as J. J.'s argument for the Bradley Effect.

Yes, that bill did come up.  Gianna Jessen did an ad for a pro-life organization in 2008 about it.

[Smash255]

I seriously have a tough time believing that some Illinois State Senate bill I have not heard of until now was the reason for such a swing in 2008. It never came up in the campaign.

Take a look at the county swing maps, Appalachia CLEARLY stands out. There were plenty of socially conservative areas to swing heavily to Obama, Upper South and Appalachia are the exceptions, these also voted heavily against Obama in the primary. The reason becomes kind of obvious. Stating that this was simply due to Obama being far to the left of Kerry is not only based on inaccurate premise but doesn't hold up everywhere, it's almost as bad as J. J.'s argument for the Bradley Effect.

Yes, that bill did come up.  Gianna Jessen did an ad for a pro-life organization in 2008 about it.

First off, he voted against it because the law was already on the books.  Secondly, it didn't have any impact elsewhere.  Is Appalachia really the only are where that bill was made into an issue?

Come on.  Coal was part of the reason, as was a continuation of the trend in more rural socially conservative areas to move more Republican.  However, you really need to have your head in the sand to believe race wasn't part of it.  Or the fear of Obama being a Muslim, or whatever.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Only three counties have never voted Republican.

Elliott, KY
Brooks, TX
Washington, DC

It looks like that streak in Elliott may soon come to an end, given the latest results.   

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Only three counties have never voted Republican.

Elliott, KY
Brooks, TX
Washington, DC

It looks like that streak in Elliott may soon come to an end, given the latest results.   

If the 2016 Democratic nominee isn't somehow Obama, it probably won't end. Brooks, TX (poor Latinos) and DC (self-explanatory) obviously won't end their streaks for a long time.

[old timey villain]

I just returned from a trip to Southeastern Kentucky and I was surprised at how important coal still appears to be there.  Many cars had pro-coal bumper stickers, with 'If you don't like coal, don't use electricity' particularly popular.  Cashiers in convenience stores had 'I support coal' buttons.  The state has an official 'Friends of Coal' license plate.  A billboard for a lawyer boasted that she was a coal miner's daughter.  Supporting coal seems to be a way to show support for their local communities. 

One county I made sure to visit was Knott County, Kentucky, where 92% of the registered voters are Democrats, yet Obama received 25% of the vote, 20 points less than in 2008.  The county used to be so Democratic that two-thirds voted for McGovern in 1972 and President Reagan didn't even get 30% there in 1984.

So, basically, it's not that everyone in the region is a coal miner, it's just that everyone thinks coal is VERY important since its a big part of their economic and cultural heritage. So an enemy of coal (Obama) isn't just an enemy to coal miners but an enemy to the entire community.

[pbrower2a]

Much the same happened in the Ozarks of Arkansas and Missouri, places similar in culture to the Appalachians because they were settled by people of similar stock. Barack Obama is simply a horrible cultural match for the Mountain South, an exotic city-slicker and an egghead.

The Ozarks have little coal, so it wasn't only coal.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Much the same happened in the Ozarks of Arkansas and Missouri, places similar in culture to the Appalachians because they were settled by people of similar stock. Barack Obama is simply a horrible cultural match for the Mountain South, an exotic city-slicker and an egghead.

The Ozarks have little coal, so it wasn't only coal.

The Ozarks were heavily Republican to begin with. That's why they're so Republican now. The region of Missouri that trended the most to the GOP was a band of counties about 50 miles outside St. Louis. That's not really the Ozarks.

[pbrower2a]

Much the same happened in the Ozarks of Arkansas and Missouri, places similar in culture to the Appalachians because they were settled by people of similar stock. Barack Obama is simply a horrible cultural match for the Mountain South, an exotic city-slicker and an egghead.

The Ozarks have little coal, so it wasn't only coal.

The Ozarks were heavily Republican to begin with. That's why they're so Republican now. The region of Missouri that trended the most to the GOP was a band of counties about 50 miles outside St. Louis. That's not really the Ozarks.

From 1992 to 1912:

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/data.php?year=1992&datatype=county&def=1&fips=29&f=0&off=0&elect=0

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=1996&fips=29&f=0&off=0&elect=0

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2000&fips=29&f=0&off=0&elect=0

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2004&fips=29&f=0&off=0&elect=0

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2008&fips=29&f=0&off=0&elect=0

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2012&fips=29&f=0&off=0&elect=0

Except that Republicans still dominated suburbia (St. Louis County went R) the pattern holds from as early as 1976. The Ozarks of southwestern Missouri went Republican as early as 1976. The Ozarks of south-central and southeastern Missouri had gone D for Carter and Clinton, but  have drifted away from Democratic nominees. It could also be that Gore forgot his Southern roots and that John Kerry is about as much a city-slicker as anyone.     

[HoosierPoliticalJunkie]

I seriously have a tough time believing that some Illinois State Senate bill I have not heard of until now was the reason for such a swing in 2008. It never came up in the campaign.

Take a look at the county swing maps, Appalachia CLEARLY stands out. There were plenty of socially conservative areas to swing heavily to Obama, Upper South and Appalachia are the exceptions, these also voted heavily against Obama in the primary. The reason becomes kind of obvious. Stating that this was simply due to Obama being far to the left of Kerry is not only based on inaccurate premise but doesn't hold up everywhere, it's almost as bad as J. J.'s argument for the Bradley Effect.

Yes, that bill did come up.  Gianna Jessen did an ad for a pro-life organization in 2008 about it.

First off, he voted against it because the law was already on the books.  Secondly, it didn't have any impact elsewhere.  Is Appalachia really the only are where that bill was made into an issue?

Come on.  Coal was part of the reason, as was a continuation of the trend in more rural socially conservative areas to move more Republican.  However, you really need to have your head in the sand to believe race wasn't part of it.  Or the fear of Obama being a Muslim, or whatever.

In 2008, race had to have been a factor.

North Dakota and South Dakota both swung heavily toward Obama in 2008 despite being religious and socially conservative. 

Certainly social issues could have hurt, but it seems absurd to say race wasn't big there.  Same with Arkansas, TN, KY, LA, etc. in 2008

[DS0816]

In 2008, race had to have been a factor.

North Dakota and South Dakota both swung heavily toward Obama in 2008 despite being religious and socially conservative.  

Certainly social issues could have hurt, but it seems absurd to say race wasn't big there.  Same with Arkansas, TN, KY, LA, etc. in 2008

Agreed.

Just refer to Hillary Clinton and how she would have performed in Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, and West Virginia—all carried in both 1992 and 1996 by her husband—had she been the 2008 Democratic presidential nominee.

Clinton would have won the popular vote by more than that near-53 percent for President Obama. He received 49% of men and 56% of women. Bump the men up to 52% and the women to 59% and she would would have won about 56 percent of the U.S. Popular Vote. Degrees of shifts (2004/2008) may have been not as high (like a ceiling) with all the Blue Firewall from Obama (numerous he carried about 10 points above the national number). So, to have a 13-point national margin of victory, that would have meant a near-16-point shift (2004/2008). That would have delivered for Hillary Clinton at least Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, and West Virginia. Kentucky and/or Tennessee might have also flipped for Hillary.

This could have been the case for Hillary Clinton, as those in Appalachia would have been more even favorable to her than North Dakota and South Dakota. Along with Nebraska and Kansas, the four voted the same as Indiana (an Obama/Democratic pickup in 2008) from 1920 to 2004. (They resumed their five-state agreement in 2012.)

What happened to Obama in Appalachia … is they rejected him well before the general election. And racism was very much key to explaining why they did that in a presidential year where the incumbent Republican party lost the White House (thanks to George W. Bush) and the Democratic party had a national shift of nearly 10 percentage points as Ark., La., Tenn., and W.Va. were four of five states which shifted in the opposite direction of the 45 other states (plus District of Columbia) with that election cycle.

[HoosierPoliticalJunkie]

Also, I want to make sure it's clear that I don't believe the majority of voters in AR, TN, LA, KY, and WV are racist.  Most are not.  However, there are a sizable proportion that are.  They were leaning D before in those states at least a little because of their economic situation.  The R voters were probably less racist in those states at the time as more affluent/educated people, who trend Republican in those areas (remember, conservative/liberal =/= Republican/Democrat in terms of divide) and those factors correlate negatively with racism. 

In 2008, Obama lost a lot of votes in those areas largely due to race and some social issues.

In 2012, the shift further was pretty much due to coal and the bad economy. 

I think this is pretty fair......