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April 23, 2019, 08:56:49 pm
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  US House Redistricting: General
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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: General  (Read 78429 times)
Former Senator Zaybay
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« Reply #125 on: February 28, 2019, 12:30:49 pm »

Is it realistically possible to pack Kevin McCarthy and Devin Nunes into the same district of California loses a seat?  What about to eliminate one of their seats without endangering any Democrats via ripple effect?

Due to the fact that a commission makes the maps in CA, although its rather easily influenced, the most likely result would be a loss of a D seat.
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« Reply #126 on: February 28, 2019, 12:32:36 pm »

Is it realistically possible to pack Kevin McCarthy and Devin Nunes into the same district of California loses a seat?  What about to eliminate one of their seats without endangering any Democrats via ripple effect?

Due to the fact that a commission makes the maps in CA, although its rather easily influenced, the most likely result would be a loss of a D seat.

Well, sure, but is there a map accomplishing the above that could realistically get through the committee?
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Former Senator Zaybay
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« Reply #127 on: February 28, 2019, 12:34:00 pm »

Is it realistically possible to pack Kevin McCarthy and Devin Nunes into the same district of California loses a seat?  What about to eliminate one of their seats without endangering any Democrats via ripple effect?

Due to the fact that a commission makes the maps in CA, although its rather easily influenced, the most likely result would be a loss of a D seat.

Well, sure, but is there a map accomplishing the above that could realistically get through the committee?

Most likely no. The best that could pass the commission is a Blue seat is gone and an R seat like Nunez's seat becomes really close.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #128 on: February 28, 2019, 12:41:47 pm »

Is it realistically possible to pack Kevin McCarthy and Devin Nunes into the same district of California loses a seat?  What about to eliminate one of their seats without endangering any Democrats via ripple effect?

Due to the fact that a commission makes the maps in CA, although its rather easily influenced, the most likely result would be a loss of a D seat.

Well, sure, but is there a map accomplishing the above that could realistically get through the committee?

Most likely no. The best that could pass the commission is a Blue seat is gone and an R seat like Nunez's seat becomes really close.

Most of the population loss is in the Northeast part of the state. It's possible that CA-01 could get ripped apart with 2, 3 and 4 taking the scraps.
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Former Senator Zaybay
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« Reply #129 on: February 28, 2019, 02:31:18 pm »

Is it realistically possible to pack Kevin McCarthy and Devin Nunes into the same district of California loses a seat?  What about to eliminate one of their seats without endangering any Democrats via ripple effect?

Due to the fact that a commission makes the maps in CA, although its rather easily influenced, the most likely result would be a loss of a D seat.

Well, sure, but is there a map accomplishing the above that could realistically get through the committee?

Most likely no. The best that could pass the commission is a Blue seat is gone and an R seat like Nunez's seat becomes really close.

Most of the population loss is in the Northeast part of the state. It's possible that CA-01 could get ripped apart with 2, 3 and 4 taking the scraps.

The problem with that idea is that you are ripping apart an R seat. The commission tries to make competitive seats and respects the minority party to a degree. They would not take another seat from the GOP.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #130 on: February 28, 2019, 06:22:33 pm »

Is it realistically possible to pack Kevin McCarthy and Devin Nunes into the same district of California loses a seat?  What about to eliminate one of their seats without endangering any Democrats via ripple effect?

Due to the fact that a commission makes the maps in CA, although its rather easily influenced, the most likely result would be a loss of a D seat.

Well, sure, but is there a map accomplishing the above that could realistically get through the committee?

Most likely no. The best that could pass the commission is a Blue seat is gone and an R seat like Nunez's seat becomes really close.

Most of the population loss is in the Northeast part of the state. It's possible that CA-01 could get ripped apart with 2, 3 and 4 taking the scraps.

The problem with that idea is that you are ripping apart an R seat. The commission tries to make competitive seats and respects the minority party to a degree. They would not take another seat from the GOP.

Then it might be the 3rd.
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BWP Conservative
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« Reply #131 on: March 11, 2019, 02:03:52 am »

Is it realistically possible to pack Kevin McCarthy and Devin Nunes into the same district of California loses a seat?  What about to eliminate one of their seats without endangering any Democrats via ripple effect?

Due to the fact that a commission makes the maps in CA, although its rather easily influenced, the most likely result would be a loss of a D seat.

Well, sure, but is there a map accomplishing the above that could realistically get through the committee?

Most likely no. The best that could pass the commission is a Blue seat is gone and an R seat like Nunez's seat becomes really close.

Most of the population loss is in the Northeast part of the state. It's possible that CA-01 could get ripped apart with 2, 3 and 4 taking the scraps.

The problem with that idea is that you are ripping apart an R seat. The commission tries to make competitive seats and respects the minority party to a degree. They would not take another seat from the GOP.

Then it might be the 3rd.
Yeah that would make sense.  Could shift CA-4 west.  Give up the mountains and take in Yuba, Sutter, Colusa, and Glenn, making it a central valley/exurban Sacramento district.  Also keep in mind if the citizenship question makes it on the census, biggest population losses come from the valley and socal.  I could see a seat in LA county being ripped up if there's an undercount of hispanics.  Maybe CA-40?
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Lincoln Councilor-elect Suburban New Jersey Conservative
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« Reply #132 on: March 20, 2019, 11:08:58 pm »

Do we think that Republicans are likely to draw Jim Cooper out of a seat following 2020?  It is really easy to carve up Nashville given how Republican the surrounding districts are (and since Nashville is actually only moderately Democratic-leaning itself).

I don't know if I'd call 60-34 a moderately Democratic leaning county, but yes. We can probably assume that unless the Supreme Court rules partisan gerrymandering unconstitutional the Nashville, Louisville, and maybe Kansas City seats will be ripped apart. 

Louisville cannot be gerrymandered, Anne Northup was the last stand there and Louisville got bluer and bluer until it voted out Anne Northup, Kansas City will make one of the Western MO seats competitive. Out of these, Nashville is probably the most feasible, but I don't think Republicans want to gerrymander Democratic cities and create dummymanders, as they did in NJ, VA, TX, and GA
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Situationist
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« Reply #133 on: April 01, 2019, 07:59:47 pm »

Does anyone have maps for Georgia after the 2020 census?
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