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  Census population estimates 2011-2019
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Author Topic: Census population estimates 2011-2019  (Read 92010 times)
hopper
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« Reply #150 on: March 08, 2015, 01:49:29 am »
« edited: March 08, 2015, 01:51:36 am by hopper »

Top Migration Gains(International and Domestic Combined.) (2010-2014)

Florida 917,135
Texas 905,754
California 459,574
North Carolina 233,880
Colorado 183,324
Washington 179,873
Arizona 172,848
Georgia 151,661
Virginia 145,072
South Carolina 139,545

Top Migration Losses(International and Domestic Combined.)

Illinois -190,144
Michigan -72,674
Ohio -50,959
New Mexico -18,886
Mississippi -16,999
Kansas -15,299
Wisconsin -11,288
Missouri -8,048
Connecticut -5,861
Alaska -4,700
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Southern Speaker Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #151 on: March 08, 2015, 01:53:00 am »

Top Migration Gains(International and Domestic Combined.) (2010-2014)

Florida 917,135
Texas 905,754
California 459,574
North Carolina 233,880
Colorado 183,324
Washington 179,873
Arizona 172,848
Georgia 151,661
Virginia 145,072
South Carolina 139,545

Top Migration Losses(International and Domestic Combined.)

Illinois -190,144
Michigan -72,674
Ohio -50,959
New Mexico -18,886
Mississippi -16,999
Kansas -15,299
Wisconsin -11,288
Missouri -8,048
Connecticut -5,861
Alaska -4,700


Almost a million for Florida and Texas?  Truely surprising.  Illinois losing almost 200,000 is also very surprising.
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Flake
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« Reply #152 on: March 08, 2015, 07:29:19 pm »

Top Migration Gains(International and Domestic Combined.) (2010-2014)

Florida 917,135
Texas 905,754
California 459,574
North Carolina 233,880
Colorado 183,324
Washington 179,873
Arizona 172,848
Georgia 151,661
Virginia 145,072
South Carolina 139,545

Top Migration Losses(International and Domestic Combined.)

Illinois -190,144
Michigan -72,674
Ohio -50,959
New Mexico -18,886
Mississippi -16,999
Kansas -15,299
Wisconsin -11,288
Missouri -8,048
Connecticut -5,861
Alaska -4,700

We're #1! Cheesy
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muon2
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« Reply #153 on: March 08, 2015, 08:36:40 pm »

Top Migration Gains(International and Domestic Combined.) (2010-2014)

Florida 917,135
Texas 905,754
California 459,574
North Carolina 233,880
Colorado 183,324
Washington 179,873
Arizona 172,848
Georgia 151,661
Virginia 145,072
South Carolina 139,545

Top Migration Losses(International and Domestic Combined.)

Illinois -190,144
Michigan -72,674
Ohio -50,959
New Mexico -18,886
Mississippi -16,999
Kansas -15,299
Wisconsin -11,288
Missouri -8,048
Connecticut -5,861
Alaska -4,700

We're #1! Cheesy

So are we. Sad
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hopper
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« Reply #154 on: March 15, 2015, 01:40:13 am »

Top 10 Natural Population Increases(2010-2014.)

Texas 1,711,241
California 1,466,489
Florida 1,041,077
North Carolina 384,476
Georgia 382, 879
New York 345,360
Washington 319,619
Arizona 319,485
Colorado 307,291
Virginia 300,913

Top 10 Slowest Natural Population Increases(2010-2014)

West Virginia -3,850
Vermont 770
Rhode Island 2,095
Maine 2,728
New Hampshire 10,296
Connecticut 17,332
Wyoming 19,795
New Mexico 20,622
Alaska 22,876
Mississippi 23,368
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KingSweden
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« Reply #155 on: March 23, 2015, 07:59:47 pm »

Top Migration Gains(International and Domestic Combined.) (2010-2014)

Florida 917,135
Texas 905,754
California 459,574
North Carolina 233,880
Colorado 183,324
Washington 179,873
Arizona 172,848
Georgia 151,661
Virginia 145,072
South Carolina 139,545

Top Migration Losses(International and Domestic Combined.)

Illinois -190,144
Michigan -72,674
Ohio -50,959
New Mexico -18,886
Mississippi -16,999
Kansas -15,299
Wisconsin -11,288
Missouri -8,048
Connecticut -5,861
Alaska -4,700

We're #1! Cheesy

So are we. Sad

Where in Illinois are these people leaving from? Downstate or Chicagoland?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #156 on: March 23, 2015, 08:23:49 pm »

Top Migration Gains(International and Domestic Combined.) (2010-2014)

Florida 917,135
Texas 905,754
California 459,574
North Carolina 233,880
Colorado 183,324
Washington 179,873
Arizona 172,848
Georgia 151,661
Virginia 145,072
South Carolina 139,545

Top Migration Losses(International and Domestic Combined.)

Illinois -190,144
Michigan -72,674
Ohio -50,959
New Mexico -18,886
Mississippi -16,999
Kansas -15,299
Wisconsin -11,288
Missouri -8,048
Connecticut -5,861
Alaska -4,700

We're #1! Cheesy

So are we. Sad

Where in Illinois are these people leaving from? Downstate or Chicagoland?

We'll find out on Thursday when the county estimates are released.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #157 on: March 24, 2015, 08:43:38 am »

Top Migration Gains(International and Domestic Combined.) (2010-2014)

Florida 917,135
Texas 905,754
California 459,574
North Carolina 233,880
Colorado 183,324
Washington 179,873
Arizona 172,848
Georgia 151,661
Virginia 145,072
South Carolina 139,545

Top Migration Losses(International and Domestic Combined.)

Illinois -190,144
Michigan -72,674
Ohio -50,959
New Mexico -18,886
Mississippi -16,999
Kansas -15,299
Wisconsin -11,288
Missouri -8,048
Connecticut -5,861
Alaska -4,700

We're #1! Cheesy

So are we. Sad

Where in Illinois are these people leaving from? Downstate or Chicagoland?

We'll find out on Thursday when the county estimates are released.

So Thursday is the day, then? Very exciting. I look forward to the county estimates more than the state ones.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #158 on: December 10, 2015, 01:36:40 pm »
« Edited: December 22, 2015, 12:54:33 pm by Tender Branson »

On December 22 to be exact.

Some early trends from states who are releasing their own population estimates before the Census Bureau:

California (Jan. 1, 2015)Sad +0.9% (+358.000)

http://www.dof.ca.gov/research/demographic/reports/estimates/e-1/view.php

Florida (April 1, 2015)Sad +1.6% (+308.000)

http://www.edr.state.fl.us/Content/population-demographics/data/FLcopops.xls

Washington (April 1, 2015)Sad +1.3% (+93.000)

http://www.ofm.wa.gov/pop/april1

Colorado (July 1, 2015)Sad +1.7% (+90.000)

https://www.colorado.gov/pacific/dola/population-data-components-change

Oregon (July 1, 2015)Sad +1.3% (+51.000)

https://www.pdx.edu/prc/sites/www.pdx.edu.prc/files/PrelimEst2015_Web.xlsx

...

These numbers would indicate a slightly higher population growth for the US compared with the year before (maybe up by 2.4-2.5 million compared with the 2.36 million between 2013-14).

But this is based only on these handful of states and their estimates are often totally different to the ones from the Census Bureau.
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Snowguy716
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« Reply #159 on: December 10, 2015, 11:23:16 pm »

I'd imagine growth slowed down significantly in North Dakota.  The boom is over for the time being so I'd imagine many have left the state again.

Minnesota is probably around +0.7%.  Domestic migration continues negative even though millennials are moving to the state (esp the 25-34 age group).  It is being offset by baby boomers leaving.
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cinyc
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« Reply #160 on: December 10, 2015, 11:44:07 pm »

I'd imagine growth slowed down significantly in North Dakota.  The boom is over for the time being so I'd imagine many have left the state again.

Minnesota is probably around +0.7%.  Domestic migration continues negative even though millennials are moving to the state (esp the 25-34 age group).  It is being offset by baby boomers leaving.

The county population estimates will be even more interesting in North Dakota and Texas when they are released.  Many of the fastest-growing counties in the past few years have been in the oil patch in those states.  Will those become the fastest-declining counties now?  Statewide, will North Dakota just have slowed growth or has it gone in reverse?  The economies of the non-oil patch cities like Fargo are still vibrant, so growth probably isn't negative statewide yet.
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Snowguy716
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« Reply #161 on: December 10, 2015, 11:52:47 pm »

I'd imagine the census won't catch the rapid migration due to the oil boom... at least not this year.  So I'd say ND will still have decent growth.  The price crash was thought to be very temporary and many banks still lent money to oil companies until quite recently.

But even during the rush many employees were doing 2 weeks on 2 weeks off rotations and many of those people were commuting from Minnesota.  A guy I know bought a house that way... in MN of course.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #162 on: December 11, 2015, 01:39:01 am »

Yeah, ND's growth of over 2% in the previous years will end with the new estimates.

In the November jobs report, ND lost almost 10.000 jobs compared with November 2014 - a decline of more than 2% - which means people are likely moving out of the state again.

I guess ND's population growth is down from 2.2% to ~1% in the new estimates.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/laus.nr0.htm

Also, another state which is badly hit by the mining/oil downturn is West Virginia, which is already one of the slowest growing (or already declining) states due to more deaths than births and almost no migration.

The state lost 14.000 jobs between Nov. 2014 and Nov. 2015, the only state to do so after ND.

Also, Texas' job growth almost halved as well (growing by 400K in previous years, but only 200K in the past year.

In general this could mean that states like NV, CO and UT are now the fastest-growing states in the country, with TX close behind. ND could actually fall out of the top-10 and states like WV could lose population at a higher clip ...
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #163 on: December 11, 2015, 01:31:36 pm »

Yeah, it would be quite an upset if anyone could compete with WV as biggest loser.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #164 on: December 12, 2015, 01:53:06 am »

New AZ numbers:

July 1, 2015: +1.4% (+91.000)

https://population.az.gov/population-estimates
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muon2
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« Reply #165 on: December 13, 2015, 03:14:48 pm »

Yeah, it would be quite an upset if anyone could compete with WV as biggest loser.

Last year IL lost more in total pop than WV.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #166 on: December 14, 2015, 01:17:24 am »

Yeah, it would be quite an upset if anyone could compete with WV as biggest loser.

Last year IL lost more in total pop than WV.

Not percentage wise, and no matter what travails Illinois may be facing they don't come anywhere close to the demographic and public health problems WV  has.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #167 on: December 17, 2015, 01:41:39 am »

New CA numbers for July 1, 2015 came out yesterday:

http://www.dof.ca.gov/research/demographic/reports/estimates/e-2/documents/pressrelease_package_Jul15.pdf
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muon2
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« Reply #168 on: December 17, 2015, 07:45:06 am »

New CA numbers for July 1, 2015 came out yesterday:

http://www.dof.ca.gov/research/demographic/reports/estimates/e-2/documents/pressrelease_package_Jul15.pdf

Net domestic migration remains negative with foreign migration slightly more than replacing the domestic outflow. They largely cancel, and the growth is mostly natural growth from births minus deaths.
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Torie
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« Reply #169 on: December 17, 2015, 08:32:09 am »

New CA numbers for July 1, 2015 came out yesterday:

http://www.dof.ca.gov/research/demographic/reports/estimates/e-2/documents/pressrelease_package_Jul15.pdf

My goodness, Orange and San Diego counties have below average growth in CA, while San Francisco is considerably above it. Hip inner city urban areas are the cat's meow now. Smiley
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Cubby
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« Reply #170 on: December 18, 2015, 11:57:08 pm »

Florida will reach 20,000,000 people. Only a few more years till it's bigger than Australia.

Oil prices started to plunge in Fall 2014, the estimates are for 7/1/15, so its possible North Dakota's rate will slow, but its probably too soon. Though if we have more weeks like this one, with oil below $35 a barrel, then we'll be back to 80's (declining) or 90's (slowest growing in the nation) rates of growth. Then hopefully we can find some land there for Buffalo Commons.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #171 on: December 19, 2015, 10:30:09 am »

Also, NC will break 10 Mio. people for the first time.

AZ will overtake MA.

TN could overtake IN, but probably not this year but next.

MD will break 6 Mio. people for the first time.

SC will overtake AL.

OR will break 4 Mio. people for the first time.

MS and AR might break 3 Mio. people for the first time (but it's more likely that UT does before them).

NH could pass ME.

Puerto Rico could drop below 3.5 Mio. people.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #172 on: December 22, 2015, 12:56:24 am »

These will be out later today ...
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Vern
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« Reply #173 on: December 22, 2015, 01:54:04 am »

should be interesting
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muon2
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« Reply #174 on: December 22, 2015, 09:55:04 am »
« Edited: December 22, 2015, 09:49:08 pm by muon2 »

Here's my annual projection from the new estimates. I used the July 2015 estimates and the April 2010 Census base to get an annual growth rate. This correctly accounts for the 5 and a quarter year period between the Census and the estimate. I then applied the annual growth rate to the 2010 reapportionment population to get the 2020 projection. This accounts for the extra overseas population used in reapportionment but not for redistricting. Ten years is a long stretch for a simple model like this, but here are the projected changes.

AL -1
AZ +1
CA +1
CO +1
FL +1
IL -1
MI -1
MN -1
NY -1
NC +1
OH -1
OR +1
PA -1
RI -1
TX +3
WV -1

There a number of changes since my projections last year. AL is down, AZ is up, OR is up and VA isn't up. The bubble seats in this projection are based on the last five awarded and the next five in line.
The last five awarded are CA-53, TX-39, OR-6, CA-54, and AZ-10 (#435).
The next five in line are FL-29, AL-7, VA-12, NY-27, MT-2.
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