Census population estimates 2011-2019

[Tender Branson]

A sad fact might be that Los Angeles County, California might hit 10 million in population before Georgia. As of now (2012 estimate) its at 9.96 million.

According to the CA DoF estimates for Mid-2013 it already did:

http://www.dof.ca.gov/research/demographic/reports/estimates/e-2/documents/E2_press_release_Jul2013.pdf

The Dof estimates use a different method though.

[Tender Branson]

States that have grown faster/slower in the past year than on average in the past 3.25 years since the Census:

green => faster
red => slower

...

For example:

CO grew 73.600 on average in the past 3.25 years, but by 78.900 in the past year.

TX grew 401.000 on average, but only 387.000 last year.

[Tender Branson]

http://www.calendarwiz.com/calendars/calendar.php?crd=cens1sample&&jsenabled=1&winh=947&winw=1466&inifr=false

The most likely estimates for the TOP-10:

  1 - CA - 38.67 Mio.
  2 - TX - 26.84 Mio.
  3 - FL - 19.79 Mio.
  4 - NY -19.73 Mio.
  5 - IL - 12.90 Mio.
  6 - PA - 12.78 Mio.
  7 - OH - 11.59 Mio.
  8 - GA - 10.07 Mio.
  9 - NC - 9.95 Mio.
10 - MI - 9.91 Mio.

USA: 318.35 Mio. (+2.22 Mio., +0.7%)

FL overtakes NY. NC overtakes MI.

[Tender Branson]

Any predictions for which states will have the biggest increase in % terms ?

Probably ND and DC will have the highest growth rates again, like last year.

I think CO might actually overtake UT for 3rd.

Or maybe NV is back in the top-3 again.

Last year, only ME, WV and PR lost population.

[Tender Branson]

Some states, such as WA, OR, CA, WI, FL and GA (Atlanta Metro) release their own annual estimates - independently to the Census Bureau numbers (which means they often differ from those).

There are indications that the population growth in WA, OR and GA has picked up in the past year between July 1, 2013 and July 1, 2014.

CA's growth rate is steady at around 0.9% and FL has picked up 250.000 people, which means it has overtaken NY for sure in the new estimates out tomorrow.

[Tender Branson]

I assume the new numbers will come out at some point in the morning (EST time), which is afternoon here.

I'm at a birthday party during the afternoon, so please someone else post the figures here.

Thx.

I'll check in later.

[Tender Branson]

I'm at a birthday party during the afternoon, so please someone else post the figures here.

Thx.

I'll check in later.

Back !

...

Top numerical gainers (2013 => 2014)

451K - TX
371K - CA
293K - FL
103K - GA
  97K - AZ
  95K - NC
  88K - WA
  84K - CO
  61K - SC
  56K - VA

Top %-gainers (2013 => 2014)

2.16% ND
1.71% NV
1.70% TX
1.59% CO
1.51% DC
1.50% FL
1.45% AZ
1.38% UT
1.34% ID
1.27% SC

States that lost population (2013 => 2014)

  -1K VT
  -1K AK
  -1K NM
  -3K CT
  -3K WV
-10K IL
-47K PR

[Tender Branson]

Any predictions for which states will have the biggest increase in % terms ?

Probably ND and DC will have the highest growth rates again, like last year.

I think CO might actually overtake UT for 3rd.

Or maybe NV is back in the top-3 again.

Last year, only ME, WV and PR lost population.

ND is ahead again, but DC fell back a bit.

NV indeed is in the top-3 again, recovering from the housing bust.

CO is not 3rd, but has overtaken UT.

TX really continues to be a magnet.

[Tender Branson]

The CB's infographic, showing how FL has caught up to NY in recent decades and now overtook it:

[Tender Branson]

States with the highest numerical migration gains (international + domestic)

251K - FL
239K - TX
129K - CA
  58K - NC
  56K - AZ
  52K - WA
  51K - CO
  47K - GA
  45K - SC
  34K - TN

States with the highest numerical migration gains (international only)

161K - CA
119K - NY
112K - FL
  85K - TX
  52K - NJ
  37K - MA
  34K - VA
  33K - IL
  29K - PA
  29K - MD

States with the highest numerical migration gains (domestic only)

155K - TX
139K - FL
  42K - AZ
  40K - CO
  39K - SC
  36K - NC
  28K - WA
  25K - TN
  24K - NV
  23K - OR

[Tender Branson]

The 10 states with the highest numerical domestic migration losses are all Democratic states:

  -16K MA
  -18K OH
  -20K VA
  -26K CT
  -29K MI
  -32K PA
  -32K CA
  -56K NJ
  -95K IL
-154K NY

[Tender Branson]

The states with the highest international migration gains (per 1000 inhabitants)

   6.1 HI
   6.0 NY
   5.8 NJ
   5.7 DC
   5.7 FL
   5.5 MA
   4.9 MD
   4.7 CT
   4.2 CA
   4.1 VA

The states with the highest domestic migration gains (per 1000 inhabitants)

 12.3 ND
   8.4 NV
   8.0 SC
   7.6 CO
   7.0 FL
   6.3 AZ
   5.8 TX
   5.7 OR
   5.1 DE
   4.7 ID

The states with the highest domestic migration losses (per 1000 inhabitants)

  -3.2 RI
  -3.6 HI
  -4.6 WY
  -4.8 KS
  -6.2 NJ
  -6.8 NM
  -7.3 CT
  -7.4 IL
  -7.8 NY
-13.8 AK

[Tender Branson]

Yeah sure, but I meant 2008/2012 Pres. election results with "Democratic states".

[Tender Branson]

Also worth mentioning:

Overall US population growth is ca. 150.000 higher than last year (but not beacuse of higher natural growth, but because the international migration balance is almost up to 1 Mio. people again).

[Tender Branson]

Pennsylvania should break the 13,000,000 barrier by the year 2050.

I somehow hate long-term demographic projections.

"should" = could/maybe/whatever

Because it's impossible to estimate future migration trends.

You can estimate future natural population developments (births minus deaths) to some extent though, because of past trends in fertility and mortality. But even that does not take into account possible future economic boom/bust periods, which could heavily increase or decrease them (like after 2007/08).

In 2000 for example (during the height of the economic boom), the Census Bureau projected that the US population in 2050 is likely around 450 Mio. people.

In their latest projections though from a few weeks ago, it will have only 395 Mio. anymore ...

[Tender Branson]

AZ is in NC population growth territory. Wow!

That's not surprising.

For most of the 90s and the years between 2000 and 2007 (before the economic and housing crash), AZ had 2.5-3% growth (or +150.000 people each year). Roughly the same amount as NC (but NC is bigger, so the relative growth was lower).

After the bust, both states had a collapse in their growth rates (domestic Americans were unable to move to the South or AZ, because they went unemployed etc.) and international migration went down too (especially from MEX). Also, AZ pissed off immigrants because of their new anti-illegal alien laws.

[Tender Branson]

As I've said, I'm not a fan of long-term projections but if you want to know when TX is going to overtake CA as biggest state (based on the past year's numbers):

In the 2160s.

[Tender Branson]

The states with the highest international migration gains (per 1000 inhabitants)

   6.1 HI
   6.0 NY
   5.8 NJ
   5.7 DC
   5.7 FL
   5.5 MA
   4.9 MD
   4.7 CT
   4.2 CA
   4.1 VA

I just looked up our 2013 numbers and it turns out that the international migration balance was 55K last year.

That means Austria had a rate of 6.5 last year and therefore a higher rate than any US state.

[Tender Branson]

Also:

NC to pass 10 million people for the 1st time ever in ca. 1 month.

NC had 9.944 million on July 1, 2014 and adds ca. 8K people each month.

[Tender Branson]

On December 22 to be exact.

Some early trends from states who are releasing their own population estimates before the Census Bureau:

California (Jan. 1, 2015) +0.9% (+358.000)

http://www.dof.ca.gov/research/demographic/reports/estimates/e-1/view.php

Florida (April 1, 2015) +1.6% (+308.000)

http://www.edr.state.fl.us/Content/population-demographics/data/FLcopops.xls

Washington (April 1, 2015) +1.3% (+93.000)

http://www.ofm.wa.gov/pop/april1

Colorado (July 1, 2015) +1.7% (+90.000)

https://www.colorado.gov/pacific/dola/population-data-components-change

Oregon (July 1, 2015) +1.3% (+51.000)

https://www.pdx.edu/prc/sites/www.pdx.edu.prc/files/PrelimEst2015_Web.xlsx

...

These numbers would indicate a slightly higher population growth for the US compared with the year before (maybe up by 2.4-2.5 million compared with the 2.36 million between 2013-14).

But this is based only on these handful of states and their estimates are often totally different to the ones from the Census Bureau.

[Tender Branson]

Yeah, ND's growth of over 2% in the previous years will end with the new estimates.

In the November jobs report, ND lost almost 10.000 jobs compared with November 2014 - a decline of more than 2% - which means people are likely moving out of the state again.

I guess ND's population growth is down from 2.2% to ~1% in the new estimates.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/laus.nr0.htm

Also, another state which is badly hit by the mining/oil downturn is West Virginia, which is already one of the slowest growing (or already declining) states due to more deaths than births and almost no migration.

The state lost 14.000 jobs between Nov. 2014 and Nov. 2015, the only state to do so after ND.

Also, Texas' job growth almost halved as well (growing by 400K in previous years, but only 200K in the past year.

In general this could mean that states like NV, CO and UT are now the fastest-growing states in the country, with TX close behind. ND could actually fall out of the top-10 and states like WV could lose population at a higher clip ...

[Tender Branson]

New AZ numbers:

July 1, 2015: +1.4% (+91.000)

https://population.az.gov/population-estimates

[Tender Branson]

New CA numbers for July 1, 2015 came out yesterday:

http://www.dof.ca.gov/research/demographic/reports/estimates/e-2/documents/pressrelease_package_Jul15.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Also, NC will break 10 Mio. people for the first time.

AZ will overtake MA.

TN could overtake IN, but probably not this year but next.

MD will break 6 Mio. people for the first time.

SC will overtake AL.

OR will break 4 Mio. people for the first time.

MS and AR might break 3 Mio. people for the first time (but it's more likely that UT does before them).

NH could pass ME.

Puerto Rico could drop below 3.5 Mio. people.

[Tender Branson]

These will be out later today ...