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  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderator: muon2)
  Census population estimates 2011-2019
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Author Topic: Census population estimates 2011-2019  (Read 92073 times)
Flake
JacobTiver
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« Reply #50 on: December 08, 2013, 03:51:50 am »

315,816,421
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #51 on: December 28, 2013, 02:21:10 am »

The numbers are out on Monday.

A fact: Georgia will top 10 million for the first time.

A 50-50 chance: Florida will overtake New York already this year.

A possibility: North Carolina will overtake Michigan (certainly next year, if not this year).
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #52 on: December 28, 2013, 02:43:07 am »

My predictions for the Top 10 in terms of 01.07.2013 population:

01 - CA (38.39)
02 - TX (26.48)
03 - NY (19.65)
04 - FL (19.55)
05 - IL (12.90)
06 - PA (12.78]
07 - OH (11.55)
08 - GA (10.03)
09 - MI (9.90)
10 - NC (9.86)
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Fmr. Pres. Griff
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« Reply #53 on: December 28, 2013, 06:33:51 am »

The numbers are out on Monday.
A fact: Georgia will top 10 million for the first time.

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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #54 on: December 29, 2013, 05:25:11 pm »

My guesses:

California: 38.3 million
Texas: 26.4 million
New York: 19.55 million
Florida: 19.5
Illinois: 12.9 million
Pennsylvania: 12.85 million
Ohio: 11.575 million
Georgia: 10.05 million
Michigan: 9.9 million
North Carolina: 9.875 million
New Jersey: 8.9 million
Virginia: 8.25 million
Washington: 6.95 million

Also, for racial demographics, in New Mexico, Latinos will become a majority of the state (currently 47%), and a plurality in California (currently at 38%, and whites are at 39%). They will probably become a plurality in Texas in a few years as well. And lastly, Nevada will become majority non-white in a few years.
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Flake
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« Reply #55 on: December 29, 2013, 06:48:13 pm »

My predictions:

1. California: 38,375,000
2. Texas: 26,697,000
3. Florida: 19,612,000
4. New York: 19,610,000
5. Illinois: 12,844,000
6. Pennsylvania: 12,841,000
7. Ohio: 11,524,000
8. Georgia: 10,110,000
9. North Carolina: 9,857,000
10. Michigan: 9,856,000
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #56 on: December 30, 2013, 10:05:11 am »

The numbers are out:

01 - CA (38.333)
02 - TX (26.448)
03 - NY (19.651)
04 - FL (19.553)
05 - IL (12.882)
06 - PA (12.774]
07 - OH (11.571)
08 - GA (9.992) !!!
09 - MI (9.896)
10 - NC (9.848)

GA has less than 10 Mio. ?

WTF ?

http://www.census.gov/popest/data/state/totals/2013/tables/NST-EST2013-01.xls
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #57 on: December 30, 2013, 10:06:29 am »

USA: 316.128.839
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #58 on: December 30, 2013, 10:11:19 am »

Biggest numerical gains:

TX (387.000)
CA (333.000)
FL (232.000)
NC (100.000)
CO (79.000)
GA (77.000)
WA (76.000)
AZ (76.000)
NY (75.000)
VA (74.000)

Losses:

ME (-199)
WV (-2400)

USA (2.255.000)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #59 on: December 30, 2013, 10:16:10 am »

Biggest % gains/losses (2012 -> 2013):

ND (+3.14)
DC (+2.06)
UT (+1.61)
CO (+1.52)
TX (+1.49)
NV (+1.30)
SD (+1.30)
FL (+1.20)
AZ (+1.15)
WA (+1.10)
SC (+1.09)

ME (-0.01)
WV (-0.13)

USA (0.72)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #60 on: December 30, 2013, 10:20:20 am »

I nailed 5 of 10 states in my prediction and wasn't really that much off with my national prediction either ... Smiley
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #61 on: December 30, 2013, 10:23:19 am »

The numbers are out

Cheesy

Biggest numerical gains:

TX (387.000)
CA (333.000)
FL (232.000)
NC (100.000)
CO (79.000)
GA (77.000)
WA (76.000)
AZ (76.000)
NY (75.000)
VA (74.000)

Losses:

ME (-199)
WV (-2400)

USA (2.255.000)

Ouch on West Virginia, looking more and more to be 4 electoral votes. Anyways, some facts.

Florida is still behind New York, with its 19.55 million compared to NY's 19.65 million. Sad

Georgia almost at 10 million, sad it didn't get past the milestone.

Looks like the trend we've been seeing all along, with the South and West growing fast and the Midwest and Northeast growing slow.

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Vern
vern1988
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« Reply #62 on: December 30, 2013, 10:31:36 am »

What was the percentage growth for NC and GA?
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #63 on: December 30, 2013, 10:35:40 am »

Does this suggest any changes in predicted apportionment for 2021?  It certainly looks like CO-08 became more likely and holding WV-03 became less likely.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #64 on: December 30, 2013, 10:44:57 am »

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muon2
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« Reply #65 on: December 30, 2013, 11:11:17 am »

Here's my annual projection from the new estimates. I used the July 2013 estimates and the April 2010 Census base to get an annual growth rate. This correctly accounts for the 3 and a quarter year period between the Census and the estimate. I then applied the annual growth rate to the 2010 reapportionment population to get the 2020 projection. This accounts for the extra overseas population used in reapportionment but not for redistricting. Ten years is a long stretch for a simple model like this, but here are the projected changes.

CO +1
FL +1
IL -1
MI -1
MN -1
NC +1
OH -1
PA -1
RI -1
TX +3
VA +1
WV -1

The only change since my projections last year is that CA and NY both hold even. They continue to be the most likely to change, and there is some shifting in the other bubble seats. Perhaps the most surprising is to see MT now appear on the bubble for a second seat. The bubble seats in this projection are based on the last five awarded and the next five in line.
The last five awarded are FL-28, VA-12, AL-7, TX-39, and NY-27 (#435).
The next five in line are CA-54, MT-2, WV-3, OR-6, MN-8.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #66 on: December 30, 2013, 11:22:27 am »
« Edited: December 30, 2013, 11:32:29 am by krazen1211 »

As of right now NC has taken a 14th seat from Minnesota per this link
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muon2
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« Reply #67 on: December 30, 2013, 11:29:01 am »
« Edited: December 30, 2013, 11:32:57 am by muon2 »

As of right now NC has taken a 14th seat from Minnesota per this link

The link gives some sort of error message for me. You may need to go back to the calculator and enter new numbers. I think the result you cite comes from assuming that the apportionment is done with the 2013 estimate, though it is generally more useful to project forward to 2020 when the next reapportionment will take place.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #68 on: December 30, 2013, 11:32:12 am »
« Edited: December 30, 2013, 11:35:54 am by krazen1211 »

As of right now NC has taken a 14th seat from Minnesota per this link

The link gives some sort of error message for me.


Hmm. Try this one. It's just an apportionment calculator.

Link


I did check the apportionment both based on a hypothetical 2013 reapportionment (which results in the NC 14th seat) and exponentially multiplying out 2020 numbers, which gives you what you posted.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #69 on: December 30, 2013, 12:26:07 pm »

A couple more charts for easier viewing:

Sorted by numerical change

Img


Sorted by % change

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True Federalist
Ernest
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« Reply #70 on: December 30, 2013, 12:38:26 pm »

Based on these estimates, if we were to reapportion today based on them the bubble seats would be:

#431 WA-10
#432 MI-14
#433 PA-18
#434 CA-53
#435 NC-14

#436 TX-37
#437 MN-8
#438 VA-12
#439 MT-2
#440 OR-6
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #71 on: December 30, 2013, 12:40:35 pm »

Cumulative % change (Census 2010 -> Mid 2013):

7.6% ND
7.4% DC
5.2% TX
5.0% UT
4.8% CO
4.0% FL
3.8% SD
3.7% WA
3.7% AZ
3.5% AK
3.4% WY

Losses:

ME & RI (ME was stagnant - lost only 59 people in 3 years, RI lost 0.1%)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #72 on: December 30, 2013, 12:46:46 pm »

Cumulative numerical change (Census 2010 -> Mid 2013):

1.303.000 TX
1.079.000 CA
   752.000 FL
   313.000 NC
   305.000 GA
   273.000 NY
   259.000 VA
   247.000 WA
   239.000 CO
   235.000 AZ

7.383.000 USA
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muon2
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« Reply #73 on: December 30, 2013, 12:48:40 pm »

A couple more charts for easier viewing:

Sorted by numerical change

Img



Over 17% over the growth in the US is in TX.
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True Federalist
Ernest
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« Reply #74 on: December 30, 2013, 12:50:47 pm »

Also for those of you who advocate the cube root apportionment method.  The 2013 estimates gives a House of 680 seats, up 5 from the 2010 census.  Changes in the House from 2010 would be California gains a 83rd seat, Florida gains a 42nd seat, Georgia gains a 22nd seat, Idaho gains a 4th seat, Michigan loses its 22ns seat, Mississippi loses its 7th seat, Oregon gains its 9th seat, and Texas gains its 56th and 57th seats.

  Alabama      10
  Alaska      2
  Arizona      14
  Arkansas   6
  California   83
  Colorado      11
  Connecticut      8
  Delaware      2
  Florida         42
  Georgia         22
  Hawaii         3
  Idaho         4
  Illinois         28
  Indiana         14
  Iowa         7
  Kansas         6
  Kentucky      10
  Louisiana      10
  Maine         3
  Maryland      13
  Massachusetts   14
  Michigan         21
  Minnesota      12
  Mississippi      6
  Missouri         13
  Montana         2
  Nebraska      4
  Nevada         6
  New Hampshire   3
  New Jersey      19
  New Mexico      5
  New York      42
  North Carolina   21
  North Dakota      2
  Ohio         25
  Oklahoma      8
  Oregon         9
  Pennsylvania      28
  Rhode Island      2
  South Carolina   10
  South Dakota      2
  Tennessee      14
  Texas         57
  Utah         6
  Vermont         1
  Virginia         18
  Washington      15
  West Virginia      4
  Wisconsin      12
  Wyoming      1
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