Census population estimates 2011-2019

[Tender Branson]

Anybody have a handy link to how far off the final Census estimates were last decade vs the actual census in 2010 by state?  Of course with the caveat that past results don't equal future performance.

Here is the good stuff:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=128464.msg2762803#msg2762803

[jimrtex]

Where are these thoughts of NY losing two seats coming from? It seems NY has been on track to lose 1 for 7 years or so. That seat itself has always been likely to be NY22/NY24  as Dems carve up Katko and protect Brindisi or another Dem. I mean of course Dems are going to get messy with the lines in Long Island, Staten Island, and the Hudson Valley, but that is to be expected.

With the addition of the 2018 census, the map has changed.

Image Link

New York has had a negative second derivative for all 8 years of the decade. It reached a peak in 2015. So not only is it declining, it is declining faster. It is like it is in a dive, and the pilot has pushed the stick forward, and Captain Cuomo is no Captain "Sully".

I think EDS uses a weighted projection. But I was unable to reproduce their projection of the 2020 population, even that based on 2000-2008 estimates.

I did calculate the quotients for the states in the bubble based on the most recent estimate, and I think a more reliable projection would show, California, Minnesota, and New York in contention for the 435th seat.

If New York's decline continues to accelerate it might fall below the others. Minnesota is increasing slightly, while California is slowing down. For 2010-2014 California was growing faster than the US as a whole, while for 2014-2018 it was slower.

By 2020, Florida(+2) and Texas(+3) will have registered their gains, while Alabama and Ohio will have registered their losses.

Illinois and Virginia will just be coming into the picture, but won't see a change before the Census.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

MT-02 is now a possibility again? My how things change. I remember the days when it was so close but missed the mark.

[Oryxslayer]

MT-02 is now a possibility again? My how things change. I remember the days when it was so close but missed the mark.

It has always been like that. It and +1 or -1 for California have always been on the bubble it seems.

[Vern]

Anybody have a handy link to how far off the final Census estimates were last decade vs the actual census in 2010 by state?  Of course with the caveat that past results don't equal future performance.

Here is the good stuff:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=128464.msg2762803#msg2762803

If GA is off by that much again in 2020 then NC could pass it

[Nyvin]

Is there any set date for the 2018 county estimates?

[Gass3268]

Is there any set date for the 2018 county estimates?

Generally late March.

[jimrtex]

Is there any set date for the 2018 county estimates?

The scheduled release is April 2019.

[DINGO Joe]

Is there any set date for the 2018 county estimates?

The scheduled release is April 2019.

I think the shutdown shoved it back quite a bit.

[#Kavanaugh For Prison]

I heard something recently that the states of Virginia and Tennessee were shown by some form of new data to have a surprisingly large population drop, and then both states were now on track to lose a Congressional District each in 2020. Only 1 detail I am forgetting: was it a strange dream or was it something real? Can someone please tell me.

[Zaybay]

I heard something recently that the states of Virginia and Tennessee were shown by some form of new data to have a surprisingly large population drop, and then both states were now on track to lose a Congressional District each in 2020. Only 1 detail I am forgetting: was it a strange dream or was it something real? Can someone please tell me.

Dream, VA has been showing an average population growth that is higher than the nation, so its not losing a seat anytime soon.

TN, Im not sure about.

The list is already kinda finalized for what the state that can gain/lose are gonna be.

[Cokeland Saxton]

I heard something recently that the states of Virginia and Tennessee were shown by some form of new data to have a surprisingly large population drop, and then both states were now on track to lose a Congressional District each in 2020. Only 1 detail I am forgetting: was it a strange dream or was it something real? Can someone please tell me.

Virginia and Tennessee are both growing a little above the national average. The last time Tennessee lost a seat was in 1970, only to gain it back in 1980.

[DINGO Joe]

Is there any set date for the 2018 county estimates?

The scheduled release is April 2019.

I think the shutdown shoved it back quite a bit.

April 18th is the release date or the 16th if you've got embargoed media access.

[Beshear al Assad]

Here is a map of change (I think 17 - 18) at the county level.

Image Link

discuss with maps

[Nyvin]

New England as a whole is actually doing moderately well (aside from Connecticut).   Surprising to see Coos county actually return to growth (by 5 people).  

Here's a link to the tables:

https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-counties-total.html

[Annatar]

The drop in population growth nationally really seems to have hit a lot of the larger counties. Of the 10 most populous counties, all 10 had positive growth between 2010-2017 and 3 of them lost population between 2017-18. Only Maricopa is still seeing strong growth, even Harris county which grew by 1.9% p.a. in 2010-2017 grew by only 0.7% in 2017-18. Miami-Dade which grew by 1.3% p.a. in 2010-2017 grew by only 0.6%. Dallas county after growing by 1.5% p.a. in 2010-2017 slowed down to 0.6%.

As fertility continues to fall in America and deaths rise as the population ages I expect growth to slow down even further.

[cinyc]

The drop in population growth nationally really seems to have hit a lot of the larger counties. Of the 10 most populous counties, all 10 had positive growth between 2010-2017 and 3 of them lost population between 2017-18. Only Maricopa is still seeing strong growth, even Harris county which grew by 1.9% p.a. in 2010-2017 grew by only 0.7% in 2017-18. Miami-Dade which grew by 1.3% p.a. in 2010-2017 grew by only 0.6%. Dallas county after growing by 1.5% p.a. in 2010-2017 slowed down to 0.6%.

As fertility continues to fall in America and deaths rise as the population ages I expect growth to slow down even further.

One year trends are always subject to revision.

The exurbs look like they're growing again. Even the Los Angeles Metro lost population 2017-18 - but San Bernardino/Riverside grew.

[RINO Tom]

Here is a map of change (I think 17 - 18) at the county level.

Image Link

discuss with maps

Poor Illinois

This is surprising, though.  I had thought that Woodford (exurb of Peoria) and Champaign were both growing, as far as Downstate counties.

[#Kavanaugh For Prison]

Collin County had the highest raw gain in Texas. For anyone looking at the future battleground area when Texas becomes winnable for Democrats.

Tarrant County is a strong statewide bellwether most of the time (2018 was its only significant miss in a very long time). Collin County is consistently to the right of Tarrant County.

[cvparty]

Collin County had the highest raw gain in Texas. For anyone looking at the future battleground area when Texas becomes winnable for Democrats.

Tarrant County is a strong statewide bellwether most of the time (2018 was its only significant miss in a very long time). Collin County is consistently to the right of Tarrant County.

the gap is narrowing

[henster]

Interesting Fairfax Co. barely grew but it is really the calm before the Amazon storm in the upcoming years. Also Virginia Beach seemed to buck the suburban growth trend with it barely growing and most of the growth going to Chesapeake/Suffolk. RVA area growing at a decent clip with the usual declines in the rural areas.

[Cokeland Saxton]

Hamilton County had the highest numerical gain in Indiana (not surprised)

And RIP Illinois, New Jersey, and New York

[Nyvin]

Hamilton County had the highest numerical gain in Indiana (not surprised)

And RIP Illinois, New Jersey, and New York

New Jersey grew last year.

[Del Tachi]

Beautiful to see Nashville, Atlanta, RDU, and Charlotte on that map

[Cokeland Saxton]

Hamilton County had the highest numerical gain in Indiana (not surprised)

And RIP Illinois, New Jersey, and New York

New Jersey grew last year.

It's lower than the original 2017 estimate. Please do not correct me.