Where are these thoughts of NY losing two seats coming from? It seems NY has been on track to lose 1 for 7 years or so. That seat itself has always been likely to be NY22/NY24 as Dems carve up Katko and protect Brindisi or another Dem. I mean of course Dems are going to get messy with the lines in Long Island, Staten Island, and the Hudson Valley, but that is to be expected.
With the addition of the 2018 census, the map has changed.
New York has had a negative second derivative for all 8 years of the decade. It reached a peak in 2015. So not only is it declining, it is declining faster. It is like it is in a dive, and the pilot has pushed the stick forward, and Captain Cuomo is no Captain "Sully".
I think EDS uses a weighted projection. But I was unable to reproduce their projection of the 2020 population, even that based on 2000-2008 estimates.
I did calculate the quotients for the states in the bubble based on the most recent estimate, and I think a more reliable projection would show, California, Minnesota, and New York in contention for the 435th seat.
If New York's decline continues to accelerate it might fall below the others. Minnesota is increasing slightly, while California is slowing down. For 2010-2014 California was growing faster than the US as a whole, while for 2014-2018 it was slower.
By 2020, Florida(+2) and Texas(+3) will have registered their gains, while Alabama and Ohio will have registered their losses.
Illinois and Virginia will just be coming into the picture, but won't see a change before the Census.
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