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  Census population estimates 2011-2019
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Author Topic: Census population estimates 2011-2019  (Read 94903 times)
Del Tachi
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« Reply #600 on: April 19, 2019, 09:33:33 am »

Beautiful to see Nashville, Atlanta, RDU, and Charlotte on that map Smiley
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Cokeland Saxton
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« Reply #601 on: April 19, 2019, 11:46:27 am »

Hamilton County had the highest numerical gain in Indiana (not surprised)

And RIP Illinois, New Jersey, and New York

New Jersey grew last year.

It's lower than the original 2017 estimate. Please do not correct me.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #602 on: April 19, 2019, 02:04:10 pm »

Boston really sticks out here as following a different trend than other old Northern cities. 
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Thatkat04
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« Reply #603 on: April 19, 2019, 02:15:06 pm »
« Edited: April 19, 2019, 02:32:48 pm by Thatkat04 »

Hamilton County had the highest numerical gain in Indiana (not surprised)

And RIP Illinois, New Jersey, and New York

New Jersey grew last year.

It's lower than the original 2017 estimate. Please do not correct me.

NJ's population got revised down, but it has yet to suffer negative population growth. So @Nyvin is right to correct you.

Edit:

The official numbers for NJ in the last 3 years are:

2016: 8,874,516
2017: 8,888,543
2018: 8,908,520

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-national-total.html#par_textimage_2011805803
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Nyvin
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« Reply #604 on: April 19, 2019, 04:55:14 pm »

Hamilton County had the highest numerical gain in Indiana (not surprised)

And RIP Illinois, New Jersey, and New York

New Jersey grew last year.

It's lower than the original 2017 estimate. Please do not correct me.

I'll correct you if you're wrong.
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Cokeland Saxton
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« Reply #605 on: April 20, 2019, 05:23:59 am »

Hamilton County had the highest numerical gain in Indiana (not surprised)

And RIP Illinois, New Jersey, and New York

I hate being corrected. I don't care if he's right.

New Jersey grew last year.

It's lower than the original 2017 estimate. Please do not correct me.

NJ's population got revised down, but it has yet to suffer negative population growth. So @Nyvin is right to correct you.

Edit:

The official numbers for NJ in the last 3 years are:

2016: 8,874,516
2017: 8,888,543
2018: 8,908,520

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-national-total.html#par_textimage_2011805803

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Nyvin
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« Reply #606 on: April 20, 2019, 08:03:09 am »

Hamilton County had the highest numerical gain in Indiana (not surprised)

And RIP Illinois, New Jersey, and New York

I hate being corrected. I don't care if he's right.

New Jersey grew last year.

It's lower than the original 2017 estimate. Please do not correct me.

NJ's population got revised down, but it has yet to suffer negative population growth. So @Nyvin is right to correct you.

Edit:

The official numbers for NJ in the last 3 years are:

2016: 8,874,516
2017: 8,888,543
2018: 8,908,520

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-national-total.html#par_textimage_2011805803


Wow, you've got to be kidding me.   Rather immature I'd say.

I don't care if you don't like it,  you don't get a free pass to spew nonsense to other people because your feelings get hurt.   If you state something wrong I'm going to correct you so that other people see the truth.   

Welcome to the real world.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #607 on: April 20, 2019, 08:13:04 am »

Brooklyn, Queens, and Bronx all peaked in 2016 after many years of growth and have had small but significant declines since then. Immigration crackdown? I'm really surprised to see Brooklyn losing population.
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cinyc
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« Reply #608 on: April 20, 2019, 08:19:34 pm »

Brooklyn, Queens, and Bronx all peaked in 2016 after many years of growth and have had small but significant declines since then. Immigration crackdown? I'm really surprised to see Brooklyn losing population.

It is due to less reported foreign immigration. Whether that is due to a different way of asking the foreign migration question in the ACS (instead of in what year did you last live outside of Brooklyn, did you live in Brooklyn last year, or something like that), illegal immigrants being less likely to fill out the ACS in the age of Trump, or an actual halt in immigration is unclear. That probably won't be answered until after the 2020 Census.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #609 on: April 21, 2019, 05:48:46 pm »

So barring some sudden slowdown/decline, Oklahoma county will have enough people for it's own congressional district in 2020.    Any chance it gets one or will it get the Salt Lake county treatment?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #610 on: April 21, 2019, 05:53:13 pm »

So barring some sudden slowdown/decline, Oklahoma county will have enough people for it's own congressional district in 2020.    Any chance it gets one or will it get the Salt Lake county treatment?

The only reason the Oklahoma districts look nice right now is because the GOP in 2010 had nothing to fear from the dems - they were winning zero counties after all. Now, its guaranteed Oklahoma City is going to get tricut between her blood red neghbors.
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#Kavanaugh For Prison
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« Reply #611 on: April 21, 2019, 06:10:24 pm »

So barring some sudden slowdown/decline, Oklahoma county will have enough people for it's own congressional district in 2020.    Any chance it gets one or will it get the Salt Lake county treatment?

The only reason the Oklahoma districts look nice right now is because the GOP in 2010 had nothing to fear from the dems - they were winning zero counties after all. Now, its guaranteed Oklahoma City is going to get tricut between her blood red neghbors.

There is a citizens initiation trying to gain signatures in the state that would prevent gerrymandering.
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Hardline Remainer
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« Reply #612 on: April 22, 2019, 02:04:17 am »

Brooklyn, Queens, and Bronx all peaked in 2016 after many years of growth and have had small but significant declines since then. Immigration crackdown? I'm really surprised to see Brooklyn losing population.
It is due to less reported foreign immigration. Whether that is due to a different way of asking the foreign migration question in the ACS (instead of in what year did you last live outside of Brooklyn, did you live in Brooklyn last year, or something like that), illegal immigrants being less likely to fill out the ACS in the age of Trump, or an actual halt in immigration is unclear. That probably won't be answered until after the 2020 Census.
This is true, but it's also probably because of shrinking household sizes amongst immigrant families. Communities of ~2 million people dropping from 4 to 3 people per household can't be offset by 100k new 2 person apartments. This almost certainly explains what's happening in LA county, as the peripheral immigrant communities have fewer children per household even as the urban core explodes.
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Councilor Zaybay
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« Reply #613 on: April 22, 2019, 11:40:32 am »

Boston really sticks out here as following a different trend than other old Northern cities. 

Boston has a legup against its competition, even against some of the Southern Metros. Its already a bustling hub for 21st century industries, and its proximity to some of the most sought after colleges in the world mean more professionals and businesses(and therefore jobs) move to the bay state. Its also still rather open, unlike NYC. Neither the city nor the suburbs are that crowded, so people arent forced out by a lack of housing or jobs, for example.
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bronz4141
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« Reply #614 on: April 22, 2019, 01:02:52 pm »

IL, NY, it is sad.

Illinois won't be trending Republican because a lot of Republican voters are moving to AZ, FL, NC, NM.
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(CT) The Free North
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« Reply #615 on: April 22, 2019, 05:01:26 pm »

IL, NY, it is sad.

Illinois won't be trending Republican because a lot of Republican voters are moving to AZ, FL, NC, NM.

You can't have high taxes and bad weather and keep people around in 21st century America.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #616 on: April 22, 2019, 09:24:02 pm »

Boston really sticks out here as following a different trend than other old Northern cities.  

Boston has a legup against its competition, even against some of the Southern Metros. Its already a bustling hub for 21st century industries, and its proximity to some of the most sought after colleges in the world mean more professionals and businesses(and therefore jobs) move to the bay state. Its also still rather open, unlike NYC. Neither the city nor the suburbs are that crowded, so people arent forced out by a lack of housing or jobs, for example.

While Boston and suburbs aren't as dense as NYC, there's certainly a housing crunch here which is driving people away with high housing costs. The suburbs aren't dense, but they are built out with their current sfh-on-large-lot zoning, so they may as well be. The city and neighboring cities (Cambridge, Somerville, Medford, Quincy) are throwing up tons of multi-family housing on brownfield lots which is helping population rise but it's not enough to keep up with demand. Boston is like San Francisco in that population is growing but it could grow even more if there was much more housing.
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« Reply #617 on: April 22, 2019, 09:25:18 pm »

What's really slowing down growth in the metro areas and nationally is the rapidly falling fertility rate, that is why natural growth has gone from 0.6% to 0.3% from 2007 to 2017. Fertility in 2017 was 1.77, based off the first 9 months of birth data in 2018 it looks like it will fall to 1.72, a record low and in the states which have released birth data for the first few months of 2019 fertility has continued to fall. I would't be surprised if fertility went below 1.7 this year. The fall is driven in my opinion by cultural factors, there is a real shift among younger Americans towards 1 child families or not having children at all.  
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Brittain33
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« Reply #618 on: April 22, 2019, 09:25:19 pm »

Brooklyn, Queens, and Bronx all peaked in 2016 after many years of growth and have had small but significant declines since then. Immigration crackdown? I'm really surprised to see Brooklyn losing population.
It is due to less reported foreign immigration. Whether that is due to a different way of asking the foreign migration question in the ACS (instead of in what year did you last live outside of Brooklyn, did you live in Brooklyn last year, or something like that), illegal immigrants being less likely to fill out the ACS in the age of Trump, or an actual halt in immigration is unclear. That probably won't be answered until after the 2020 Census.
This is true, but it's also probably because of shrinking household sizes amongst immigrant families. Communities of ~2 million people dropping from 4 to 3 people per household can't be offset by 100k new 2 person apartments. This almost certainly explains what's happening in LA county, as the peripheral immigrant communities have fewer children per household even as the urban core explodes.

Oh, that's interesting. I hadn't connected it to dropping birth rates but I can see how that's a new factor.
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Cokeland Saxton
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« Reply #619 on: April 24, 2019, 01:01:45 am »

The slow growth in the Houston metro, and the Gulf coast of TX could also be connected to Harvey, such as with Aransas County having pretty much all its 2010 - 2017 growth undone.

The growth rebounding in the Permian Basin, such as Ector and Midland, are likely connected with a recovery in oil prices there.
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Jimmie
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« Reply #620 on: April 24, 2019, 03:51:04 am »

You can't have high taxes and bad weather and keep people around in 21st century America.

On the other hand you can argue that Chicago has picture perfect from May - October. The reverse of Phoenix essentially.  Also there are no natural disasters that could destroy Chicago unlike many of these sun belt cities.

But the extremely harsh winters is literally the reason I never made the jump to move to Chicago.

IL, NY, it is sad.

Illinois won't be trending Republican because a lot of Republican voters are moving to AZ, FL, NC, NM.

Somewhat mitigated by a loss of black population but overall the state is shrinking and becoming more Democratic at the same time.
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #621 on: May 04, 2019, 09:48:51 am »

Any press release yet on what date this month the 2018 city and town (or "county subdivision") estimates will be released (with likely two days of embargoed media access - they'll list both dates in the press release)?
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Cokeland Saxton
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« Reply #622 on: May 04, 2019, 11:24:45 am »

Probably in a few weeks
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cinyc
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« Reply #623 on: May 07, 2019, 01:13:22 pm »
« Edited: May 07, 2019, 01:34:48 pm by cinyc »

Any press release yet on what date this month the 2018 city and town (or "county subdivision") estimates will be released (with likely two days of embargoed media access - they'll list both dates in the press release)?

They usually come out the Thursday before Memorial Day.

Edited to add: Census’ most recent tip sheet confirms this. They are scheduled for release on Thursday, May 23 with the media getting them on May 21.
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bronz4141
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« Reply #624 on: May 18, 2019, 09:26:14 pm »

What does it say about Louisiana?

Why is Louisiana suffering?
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