Census population estimates 2011-2019
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  Census population estimates 2011-2019
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Author Topic: Census population estimates 2011-2019  (Read 180224 times)
Tender Branson
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« Reply #350 on: December 06, 2017, 02:55:46 PM »

A new study estimates that some 470.000 Puerto Ricans have left the island after the hurricane there, with 215.000 heading to Florida (and a sizeable amount to NY of course).

These numbers won't show up in the new release out soon, because the data will be for July 1, 2017 and the hurricane was after that.

But FL should get a significant bump for the 2018 estimates, probably some 350-500K growth (or more than 2%).

NY should be lifted out of stagnation next year, before falling back into stagnation/decline.

http://miami.cbslocal.com/2017/12/05/puerto-rico-immigration-hurricane-maria/
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Skycraper15
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« Reply #351 on: December 06, 2017, 09:09:06 PM »

Isn't Washington State also growing rapidly?
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #352 on: December 06, 2017, 09:42:00 PM »

NY might wind up losing no seats this decade.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #353 on: December 06, 2017, 11:17:07 PM »

A new study estimates that some 470.000 Puerto Ricans have left the island after the hurricane there, with 215.000 heading to Florida (and a sizeable amount to NY of course).

These numbers won't show up in the new release out soon, because the data will be for July 1, 2017 and the hurricane was after that.

But FL should get a significant bump for the 2018 estimates, probably some 350-500K growth (or more than 2%).

NY should be lifted out of stagnation next year, before falling back into stagnation/decline.

http://miami.cbslocal.com/2017/12/05/puerto-rico-immigration-hurricane-maria/

So, the question is, which New York-area county will grow faster - the Bronx or Hudson County, New Jersey?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #354 on: December 07, 2017, 12:09:53 AM »

Isn't Washington State also growing rapidly?

Yes, but not because of Puerto Ricans.

(by 1.8% to April 2017 according to their own state estimates.)

Also, UT has released their state estimates recently: +1.9% to July 2017, which is roughly the same growth as the year before.

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cinyc
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« Reply #355 on: December 10, 2017, 11:55:07 PM »

Census' 2012-16 ACS estimates came out last week. I have started to map some of the results, and might start a thread here later in the week with #analysis, if I can find the time.

For my first project, I compiled the Seq 23 commuting data. For now, you can see some of the interactive maps I made of that data on my Carto page.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #356 on: December 19, 2017, 06:52:29 PM »

Aren't the latest state population estimates set to come out soon? Does anyone know when?
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Vern
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« Reply #357 on: December 19, 2017, 07:03:29 PM »

Aren't the latest state population estimates set to come out soon? Does anyone know when?

Tomorrow
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #358 on: December 20, 2017, 12:38:16 AM »

Aren't the latest state population estimates set to come out soon? Does anyone know when?

Tomorrow @9AM I think.  Part of the reason I wandered back in (though VA and AL were other reasons).
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cinyc
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« Reply #359 on: December 20, 2017, 10:24:35 AM »

The 2017 state estimates are out. It looks like Alaska, Hawaii, Illinois, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Dakota, West Virginia and Wyoming lost population.

The largest numerical gain was in Texas - almost 400,000, followed by Florida.
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cinyc
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« Reply #360 on: December 20, 2017, 11:00:04 AM »

Census’ press release is out here:

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2017/estimates-idaho.html?intcmp=s1-popest-state

Idaho, Nevada and Utah had the highest percentage gains year-over-year.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #361 on: December 20, 2017, 11:00:43 AM »

Any surprises affecting reapportionment?
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cinyc
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« Reply #362 on: December 20, 2017, 11:08:23 AM »

Any surprises affecting reapportionment?

I’ll leave that up to the experts.

Pennsylvania passed Illinois and is now the 5th largest state.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #363 on: December 20, 2017, 11:12:51 AM »

It's been an hour and Jim hasn't posted his updated spreadsheet yet.

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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #364 on: December 20, 2017, 11:13:28 AM »

The most annoying thing about the estimates is that they change prior year(s) estimates (which i understand), but don't give you an easy way to see those changes.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #365 on: December 20, 2017, 11:14:40 AM »

It's been an hour and Jim hasn't posted his updated spreadsheet yet.



We can only assume the worst--he's in Tender's basement.
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muon2
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« Reply #366 on: December 20, 2017, 11:19:23 AM »

Here's my annual projection from the new estimates. I used the July 2017 estimates and the April 2010 Census base to get an annual growth rate. This correctly accounts for the 7 and a quarter year period between the Census and the estimate. I then applied the annual growth rate to the 2010 reapportionment population to get the 2020 projection. This accounts for the extra overseas population used in reapportionment but not for redistricting. Ten years is a long stretch for a simple model like this, but here are the projected changes.

AL -1
AZ +1
CO +1
FL +2
IL -1
MI -1
MN -1
NY -1
NC +1
OH -1
OR +1
PA -1
RI -1
TX +3
WV -1

There are no changes since my projections last year. The bubble seats in this projection are based on the last five awarded and the next five in line.
The last five awarded are IL-17, TX-39, CA-53, FL-29, and AZ-10 (#435).
The next five in line are MT-2, AL-7, MN-8, NY-36, and CA-54.

An alternate projection could use just the last two years of estimates to determine the rate of growth for the rest of the decade. That model gives an extra seat to MT at the expense of one from CA.
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TexArkana
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« Reply #367 on: December 20, 2017, 11:34:08 AM »

Here's my annual projection from the new estimates. I used the July 2017 estimates and the April 2010 Census base to get an annual growth rate. This correctly accounts for the 7 and a quarter year period between the Census and the estimate. I then applied the annual growth rate to the 2010 reapportionment population to get the 2020 projection. This accounts for the extra overseas population used in reapportionment but not for redistricting. Ten years is a long stretch for a simple model like this, but here are the projected changes.

AL -1
AZ +1
CO +1
FL +2
IL -1
MI -1
MN -1
NY -1
NC +1
OH -1
OR +1
PA -1
RI -1
TX +3
WV -1

There are no changes since my projections last year. The bubble seats in this projection are based on the last five awarded and the next five in line.
The last five awarded are IL-17, TX-39, CA-53, FL-29, and AZ-10 (#435).
The next five in line are MT-2, AL-7, MN-8, NY-36, and CA-54.

An alternate projection could use just the last two years of estimates to determine the rate of growth for the rest of the decade. That model gives an extra seat to MT at the expense of one from CA.
So basically, the sun belt is gaining population and the rust belt is losing it.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #368 on: December 20, 2017, 11:41:14 AM »

The estimate for Illinois is actually higher than last year's estimate, but they raised last year's estimate by 34,000, so a 1,000 gain becomes a 33,000 loss.
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Torie
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« Reply #369 on: December 20, 2017, 11:41:59 AM »

Any surprises affecting reapportionment?

I’ll leave that up to the experts.

Pennsylvania passed Illinois and is now the 5th largest state.

It is kind of shocking to read about PA passing another state in this department. When it happens, you know that the "passee" is in a sad state (yeah is in a sad state works too).  I wonder when Muon2 is moving out. I mean, I don't think he needs to be there anymore a year hence, and his kids live in the northeast I think.  Smiley
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muon2
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« Reply #370 on: December 20, 2017, 11:48:41 AM »

The estimates this year had few surprises, but next year may be different. The impact of the 2017 hurricanes will show up in the 2018 estimates. For example, a wave from PR to NY might keep NY from losing a seat.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #371 on: December 20, 2017, 12:33:51 PM »

The estimates this year had few surprises, but next year may be different. The impact of the 2017 hurricanes will show up in the 2018 estimates. For example, a wave from PR to NY might keep NY from losing a seat.

Think TX might get bounced down to just 2 seats in such a scenario?
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Starpaul20
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« Reply #372 on: December 20, 2017, 02:09:49 PM »
« Edited: December 20, 2017, 02:13:07 PM by Starpaul20 »

I decided to see what a Wyoming Rule house would look like with the new population estimates. The house membership would expand to 561 seats, an increase of 126 over its current size:


(States in red gain 1 seat, blue gains 2 seats, green gains 3 seats, yellow gains 4 seats, orange gains 5 or more and gray means no change)

EDIT: For comparison, here's what a Wyoming Rule house would look like with the 2010 census results (547 seats):
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #373 on: December 20, 2017, 02:40:30 PM »

The international immigration surplus to the US was actually 1.1 million to July 2017 (up from less than 1 million in the year before), which is surprising considering Trump's harsh anti-immigrant policies.

When it comes to domestic migration patterns, the top-10 states with the highest domestic migration gains (excl. international migration) are:

FL (by far), TX, NC, WA, AZ, SC, GA, TN, NV and OR.

While NY, CA and IL have by far the largest domestic migration losses.

CA and NY have also the biggest international migration surplus, so this balances their huge domestic losses to other states.

2 states (ME and WV) had more deaths than births last year. CA and TX had the biggest birth surplus.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #374 on: December 20, 2017, 06:02:19 PM »



From Election Data Services
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