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Author Topic: Census population estimates 2011-2019  (Read 86310 times)
Tender Branson
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« Reply #550 on: December 24, 2018, 03:08:12 pm »

The 10 states that had the highest domestic migration surpluses (= intra-US movements between the states) between 2017 and 2018:

FL +133K
AZ +83K
TX +83K
NC +67K
SC +51K
NV +48K
WA +47K
CO +43K
GA +42K
TN +40K

... and the biggest net losses:

NY -180K
CA -156K
PR -123K
IL -114K
NJ -51K
LA -28K
MA -26K
MD -25K
CT -22K
PA -21K
MI -17K

Puerto Rico lost 4% of its population last year (a record) and that was not only because of out-migration (-123K people), but also because a -7K death surplus. A loss of 130K people in total.

Since the Census 2000, more than 1 million Puerto Ricans have left the island - or about 1/4 of the population ...
Please cite your original source.  Paraphrasing data still needs a citation.  I suspect you are possesive of your data sources.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-kits/2018/pop-estimates-national-state.html

Table 5, sorted by "domestic".
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« Reply #551 on: December 24, 2018, 08:08:43 pm »

The 10 states that had the highest domestic migration surpluses (= intra-US movements between the states) between 2017 and 2018:

FL +133K
AZ +83K
TX +83K
NC +67K
SC +51K
NV +48K
WA +47K
CO +43K
GA +42K
TN +40K

... and the biggest net losses:

NY -180K
CA -156K
PR -123K
IL -114K
NJ -51K
LA -28K
MA -26K
MD -25K
CT -22K
PA -21K
MI -17K

Puerto Rico lost 4% of its population last year (a record) and that was not only because of out-migration (-123K people), but also because a -7K death surplus. A loss of 130K people in total.

Since the Census 2000, more than 1 million Puerto Ricans have left the island - or about 1/4 of the population ...
Please cite your original source.  Paraphrasing data still needs a citation.  I suspect you are possesive of your data sources.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-kits/2018/pop-estimates-national-state.html

Table 5, sorted by "domestic".
Thank you!
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« Reply #552 on: December 24, 2018, 08:17:09 pm »

Time to institute my plan in Illinois.

Pritzker is intituting the legal marijuana but I doubt he will institute my other plan.

Abolish all property taxes in the state of Illinois and all sales taxes in opportunity zones in Cook County and parts of downstate.

Edit: Also  I would nuke all public sector unions.

That should solve most of the mess in the state is causing people to leave.
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« Reply #553 on: December 24, 2018, 08:40:15 pm »

Time to institute my plan in Illinois.

Pritzker is intituting the legal marijuana but I doubt he will institute my other plan.

Abolish all property taxes in the state of Illinois and all sales taxes in opportunity zones in Cook County and parts of downstate.

Edit: Also  I would nuke all public sector unions.

That should solve most of the mess in the state is causing people to leave.

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« Reply #554 on: December 26, 2018, 05:31:03 pm »

NC once again grows faster than GA. Watch out GA we right on your heels!
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« Reply #555 on: December 26, 2018, 06:35:27 pm »

Time to institute my plan in Illinois.

Pritzker is intituting the legal marijuana but I doubt he will institute my other plan.

Abolish all property taxes in the state of Illinois and all sales taxes in opportunity zones in Cook County and parts of downstate.

Edit: Also  I would nuke all public sector unions.

That should solve most of the mess in the state is causing people to leave.

The IL sales taxes are pretty much only assessed on purchases of physical items that disproportionately affect lower income groups. The state could earn 2 G$ or more by including services that are primarily used by upper income groups.
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« Reply #556 on: December 26, 2018, 08:13:05 pm »

Time to institute my plan in Illinois.

Pritzker is intituting the legal marijuana but I doubt he will institute my other plan.

Abolish all property taxes in the state of Illinois and all sales taxes in opportunity zones in Cook County and parts of downstate.

Edit: Also  I would nuke all public sector unions.

That should solve most of the mess in the state is causing people to leave.

The IL sales taxes are pretty much only assessed on purchases of physical items that disproportionately affect lower income groups. The state could earn 2 G$ or more by including services that are primarily used by upper income groups.

We should get together and make a budget plan for Illinois that is fair!
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« Reply #557 on: December 26, 2018, 11:08:01 pm »

Illinois is a big, hot mess.  But I am confident it will do just fine in the long run.

As a good Chicagoan might say "yeah we're hayfe way between a raaaahck an a haaaaahrd place but we've sitch-uh-wated ourselves exeaaactly half way tuh minimize the deaaaahmage"
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« Reply #558 on: December 27, 2018, 08:05:09 am »

Puerto Rico lost 4% of its population last year (a record) and that was not only because of out-migration (-123K people), but also because a -7K death surplus. A loss of 130K people in total.

Since the Census 2000, more than 1 million Puerto Ricans have left the island - or about 1/4 of the population ...
It was more a 7K birth deficit. Annual births have declined from 41K to 24K during the decade.

I suspect those who leave may be disproportionately in child-bearing ages. Yep ...

If we compare numbers in 5-year age groups from 2012 to 2017, when they would have advanced to the next age group.

20-25 in 2012, 25-30 in 2017 84.9% *** groups with largest share of births
25-30 in 2012, 30-34 in 2017 83.8% ***
30-34 in 2012, 35-39 in 2017 87.4%
35-39 in 2013, 40-44 in 2017 90.2%
...
55-59 in 2013, 60-64 in 2017 93.1%

At older ages, you see a sharp decline, but that is because of people dying before they age 5 years. This may have a small effect on those in their 50s.

There is a strong male-female differential.

25-29 in 2012, 30-34 in 2017, male 18.5% left, female 14.1% left.

In a normal population, males outnumber females until in 40s to 50s, when earlier male deaths balance the population. But here you have potential mates leaving the island.

If we look at children, there is also difference.

0-4 in 2012, 5-9 in 2017 86.9%
5-10 in 2012, 10-14 in 2017 89.3%
10-14 in 2012, 15-19 in 2017 89.2%
15-19 in 2012, 20-24 in 2017 86.6%

The youngest are more likely to be living in non-established families, and it is easier to move if you don't have an established career, a house, and the children in school. You likely have family on the mainland, whom you can use for at least temporary housing, and may know of jobs.

Older children, who are in school, and may have more difficulty in transitioning to English-based schools.  Migration matches that of those 30 years older (their parents).

The oldest group which were teenagers in 2012, has now entered adulthood and are beginning to migrate.
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« Reply #559 on: December 28, 2018, 02:47:19 pm »

Yes, New Jersey's was adjusted down, just like New York's was adjusted down by like a quarter million.
Looking at the components of change: birth, deaths, domestic migration, and international migration, and comparing the 2017 and 2018 vintage estimates for 2017, there was a dramatic decrease in the estimate of net international migration between 2010-2017 from 7.2 million to 6.7 million. Remember that net includes both immigration and emigration. The changes for births, deaths, and domestic migration were minimal.

The changes in international migration were extremely concentrated, with New York (-265K), California (-147K) and New Jersey (-121K) suffering the most.

MD -29
NV -23
FL -14
GA -14
CT -13
LA -13
PA -12
NC -11

There were a few gainers:

TX +36
AZ +33
MI +18
WA +18
OH +11

I suspect that the Census Bureau has refined their estimates of people leaving the US, which would reasonably be the hardest to measure, since they no longer exist in the US. Residents for census purposes include temporary residents such as those attending college or on long-term work assignments, It also includes persons who move to the USA to work and travel, with no intent to permanently reside in the USA.

Some people change their minds. They get their degree(s), find work, and perhaps a spouse, and become permanent residents, perhaps citizens. Others may return for other reasons. With jet travel and the internet it is much easier to maintain a connection with a home country.

In 2016, domestic migration into Texas was 532K, and out of Texas was 444K, but the net was only 88K. That is, the net flow was less than 1/10 of the total number of border crossers.

From the 2016 ACS, roughly 2 million persons were living in the USA, who had resided abroad a year earlier. But the Census Bureau estimates net international migration at half of that.

Mumbly. mumbly, hand wavy, the Census Bureau through 2017 reduced the net international flow from 7.2M to 6.7M. If this is due to increased estimate of out migration, this might only require an increase in the percentage of outflow by less than 10%.

The question is then why is this so concentrated in New York, New Jersey, and California.

Speculation,

New York and California by far have the most diverse immigrants. Perhaps  more people have heard of NYC or Los Angeles or San Francisco and move there as part of some fantasy, thinking they can get a job in movies or the theater, etc. It may be more a multi-year visit, than a lifetime migration.
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« Reply #560 on: December 30, 2018, 06:46:45 pm »

It has a lot to do with immigrants wanting to move places where there's a preexisting established community of their ethnic group, and almost literally every ethnic group on Earth has an enclave somewhere in NYC.
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« Reply #561 on: January 12, 2019, 07:23:15 am »

Are more people moving out of upstate NY, or NYC? I really can't think why you would want to move out of the latter, but anyway.
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« Reply #562 on: January 12, 2019, 11:24:19 am »

Are more people moving out of upstate NY, or NYC? I really can't think why you would want to move out of the latter, but anyway.
http://worldpopulationreview.com/states/new-york-population/

It appears to be Upstate. NYC is still growing.
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« Reply #563 on: January 12, 2019, 12:41:54 pm »

Are more people moving out of upstate NY, or NYC? I really can't think why you would want to move out of the latter, but anyway.
http://worldpopulationreview.com/states/new-york-population/

It appears to be Upstate. NYC is still growing.

If Democrats have total control in 2021 as I imagine they will, I wonder if they will try to kill two Upstate seats.
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« Reply #564 on: January 12, 2019, 01:04:56 pm »

Are more people moving out of upstate NY, or NYC? I really can't think why you would want to move out of the latter, but anyway.
http://worldpopulationreview.com/states/new-york-population/

It appears to be Upstate. NYC is still growing.

If Democrats have total control in 2021 as I imagine they will, I wonder if they will try to kill two Upstate seats.

Based on the fact that the Ds have a trifecta, and the population changes, whats most likely to happen is that Upstate loses 1 or 2 seats, with the possibility of Long Island losing one if Upstate holds. This would mean NYC and its surrounding area would hold much more substantial influence in whats left of Long Island and Upstate, to the point that losing two districts may make it much easier for the Ds to obtain near absolute control of the congressional delegation without the need for extreme gerrymandering and ugly districts.
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« Reply #565 on: January 12, 2019, 01:27:05 pm »

Where are these thoughts of NY losing two seats coming from? It seems NY has been on track to lose 1 for 7 years or so. That seat itself has always been likely to be NY22/NY24  as Dems carve up Katko and protect Brindisi or another Dem. I mean of course Dems are going to get messy with the lines in Long Island, Staten Island, and the Hudson Valley, but that is to be expected.
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« Reply #566 on: January 12, 2019, 01:32:36 pm »

Doesn't NY have a redistricting commission for 2022?
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« Reply #567 on: January 12, 2019, 01:34:32 pm »

Doesn't NY have a redistricting commission for 2022?

The commission is toothless, and can be ignored about as easily as the one in Ohio.
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« Reply #568 on: January 12, 2019, 02:26:57 pm »

Where are these thoughts of NY losing two seats coming from? It seems NY has been on track to lose 1 for 7 years or so. That seat itself has always been likely to be NY22/NY24  as Dems carve up Katko and protect Brindisi or another Dem. I mean of course Dems are going to get messy with the lines in Long Island, Staten Island, and the Hudson Valley, but that is to be expected.

With the addition of the 2018 census, the map has changed.

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« Reply #569 on: January 12, 2019, 04:16:59 pm »

Where are these thoughts of NY losing two seats coming from? It seems NY has been on track to lose 1 for 7 years or so. That seat itself has always been likely to be NY22/NY24  as Dems carve up Katko and protect Brindisi or another Dem. I mean of course Dems are going to get messy with the lines in Long Island, Staten Island, and the Hudson Valley, but that is to be expected.

With the addition of the 2018 census, the map has changed.



Ah ok, the pop adjustments downward shoved the bottom out. Glancing at that map, could someone explain MN? MT and CA are constant bubble seats so that's understandable, but MN I believe lost the pop for MN08 back pre-2015. Is the state growing fast again? Or was it just shoved out of the way by NY?

Redistricting-wise, I suspect the second cut will be one of NY-18/19/20 in the Husdon Valley, or a Long Island seat with the remaining ones all getting shoved that much deeper into NY. Gives the dems a better hand, since there would now be more 'free' voters to mess with.
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« Reply #570 on: January 12, 2019, 06:56:15 pm »

Where are these thoughts of NY losing two seats coming from? It seems NY has been on track to lose 1 for 7 years or so. That seat itself has always been likely to be NY22/NY24  as Dems carve up Katko and protect Brindisi or another Dem. I mean of course Dems are going to get messy with the lines in Long Island, Staten Island, and the Hudson Valley, but that is to be expected.

With the addition of the 2018 census, the map has changed.



Ah ok, the pop adjustments downward shoved the bottom out. Glancing at that map, could someone explain MN? MT and CA are constant bubble seats so that's understandable, but MN I believe lost the pop for MN08 back pre-2015. Is the state growing fast again? Or was it just shoved out of the way by NY?

Redistricting-wise, I suspect the second cut will be one of NY-18/19/20 in the Husdon Valley, or a Long Island seat with the remaining ones all getting shoved that much deeper into NY. Gives the dems a better hand, since there would now be more 'free' voters to mess with.

I answered the MN question back in Dec. You can see my bubble list in the answer below. I know the owner of the company that produced that map, and we've talked about our respective projections. He uses a slightly different projection model than I do which accounts for the differences in NY and MN. We both use full decade and 3-year averages and compare the results. He has a CA/MN flip based on that which I do not.

The last five awarded are IL-17, FL-29, TX-39, NY-26, and MT-2 (#435).
The next five in line are CA53, AL-7, MN-8, OH-15, and VA-12.

Wow, that seems new!  I thought MN was definitely doomed.

MN is now the fastest growing state in the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region. They've paced the national average for the decade and are slightly ahead of it over the last two years. If they keep up their current pace of the last year or two they have a definite shot at holding their 8th seat.
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« Reply #571 on: January 12, 2019, 07:32:13 pm »

Where are these thoughts of NY losing two seats coming from? It seems NY has been on track to lose 1 for 7 years or so. That seat itself has always been likely to be NY22/NY24  as Dems carve up Katko and protect Brindisi or another Dem. I mean of course Dems are going to get messy with the lines in Long Island, Staten Island, and the Hudson Valley, but that is to be expected.

With the addition of the 2018 census, the map has changed.



Ah ok, the pop adjustments downward shoved the bottom out. Glancing at that map, could someone explain MN? MT and CA are constant bubble seats so that's understandable, but MN I believe lost the pop for MN08 back pre-2015. Is the state growing fast again? Or was it just shoved out of the way by NY?

Redistricting-wise, I suspect the second cut will be one of NY-18/19/20 in the Husdon Valley, or a Long Island seat with the remaining ones all getting shoved that much deeper into NY. Gives the dems a better hand, since there would now be more 'free' voters to mess with.

I answered the MN question back in Dec. You can see my bubble list in the answer below. I know the owner of the company that produced that map, and we've talked about our respective projections. He uses a slightly different projection model than I do which accounts for the differences in NY and MN. We both use full decade and 3-year averages and compare the results. He has a CA/MN flip based on that which I do not.

The last five awarded are IL-17, FL-29, TX-39, NY-26, and MT-2 (#435).
The next five in line are CA53, AL-7, MN-8, OH-15, and VA-12.

Wow, that seems new!  I thought MN was definitely doomed.

MN is now the fastest growing state in the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region. They've paced the national average for the decade and are slightly ahead of it over the last two years. If they keep up their current pace of the last year or two they have a definite shot at holding their 8th seat.

Thanks!
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« Reply #572 on: January 13, 2019, 01:32:17 am »

Doesn't NY have a redistricting commission for 2022?

The commission is toothless, and can be ignored about as easily as the one in Ohio.

The commission is not as toothless as you think, because of the supermajority requirement to reject the commissionís map when there is single party government rule.

As for whatís losing population in New York, yes, itís largely Upstate, but IIRC, some NYC boroughs lost population in the last estimate, too. I donít think the math works to get rid of 2 Upstate seats if NY loses 2 seats. NYC will lose one, too.
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« Reply #573 on: January 13, 2019, 02:49:42 am »

Anybody have a handy link to how far off the final Census estimates were last decade vs the actual census in 2010 by state?  Of course with the caveat that past results don't equal future performance.
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« Reply #574 on: January 13, 2019, 03:32:46 am »

Anybody have a handy link to how far off the final Census estimates were last decade vs the actual census in 2010 by state?  Of course with the caveat that past results don't equal future performance.

I had them once for all states, but the charts seem to have been deleted by imageschak:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=128464.msg2755003#msg2755003
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