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Author Topic: Census population estimates 2011-2019  (Read 99307 times)
cinyc
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« Reply #625 on: May 23, 2019, 12:54:46 pm »

Here’s the new interactive map with the 18 vintage data. Default is percentage change of 2018 vs the 2010 Estimates base. To change maps, click on 18 Est % and select a year. 2010C-18 is vs. actual census numbers, which doesn’t take into account annexations and the like.

2018 Est # show numerical changes. The prior vintage estimates are in 17/16 %# – though they’re largely irrelevant now except to track changes in how Census estimated.

There’s also an isolate button on the main menu if you want to isolate a particular type of growth, like cities that increased by >20%.

https://cinycmaps.com/index.php/pop-change

Please let me know if you encounter any errors.
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #626 on: May 23, 2019, 07:41:22 pm »
« Edited: Today at 04:44:47 pm by Kevinstat »

In the 2010 census, the State House "quotas" of Maine's largest municipalities** (those over 0.9/151 of Maine's population in any one of the three following tables), were as follows (with instances where the "Estimates Base" (EB) yields a different quota than the official census numbers noted in parentheses):

=7.6 (8*0.95) "cutoff"=
Portland city 7.5245 (EB 7.5244) (State Senate quota* 1.7441, between 1.05 and 1.9 "cutoffs")
=7.35 (7*1.05) "cutoff"=
...
=4.2 (4*1.05) "cutoff"=
Lewiston city 4.1596 (EB 4.1595) (State Senate quota* 0.9641, between 0.95 "cutoff" and 1.0 mark)
=4.0 mark=
=3.8 (4*0.95) "cutoff"=
Bangor city 3.7557 (EB 3.7539)
=3.15 (3*1.05) "cutoff"=
=3.0 mark=
=2.85 (3*0.95) "cutoff"=
South Portland city 2.8421 (EB 2.8423)
Auburn city 2.6208 (EB 2.6211)
Biddeford city 2.4186 (EB 2.4185)
Sanford city 2.3642 (EB 2.3634)
Brunswick town 2.3051 (EB 2.3052)
Augusta city 2.1753 (EB 2.1755)
Scarborough town 2.1506 (EB 2.1496)
Saco city 2.1009 (EB 2.1031)
=2.1 (2*1.05) "cutoff"=
=2.0 mark=
Westbrook city 1.9886 (EB 1.9910)
Windham town 1.9326 (EB 1.9321)
=1.9 (2*0.95) "cutoff"=
Gorham town 1.8621 (EB 1.8609)
Waterville city 1.7872 (EB 1.7873)
York town 1.4242 (EB 1.4228)
Falmouth town 1.2714 (EB 1.2709)
Kennebunk town 1.2275 (EB 1.2269)
Orono town 1.1779 (EB 1.1775)
Standish town 1.1224 (EB 1.1222)
Presque Isle city 1.1017
Wells town 1.0900
Kittery town 1.0788 (EB 1.0792)
Brewer city 1.0779 (EB 1.0782)
=1.05 "cutoff"=
Cape Elizabeth town 1.0248 (EB 1.0245)
Lisbon town 1.0241 (EB 1.0250)
=1.0 mark=
Topsham town 0.9985 (EB 0.9988)
Old Orchard Beach town 0.9803 (EB 0.9791)
Skowhegan town 0.9763 (EB 0.9758)
Bath city 0.9678
[Old Town city (0.8912 (EB 0.8919)) + Penobscot Indian Island Reservation (0.0693)] 0.9605 (EB 0.9612)
=0.95 "cutoff"=
Yarmouth town 0.9491 (EB 0.9492)
Caribou city 0.9309
Buxton town 0.9133 (EB 0.9134)
Freeport town 0.8956 (EB 0.8955)
...
Gray town 0.8822 (EB 0.8824)
...
Ellsworth city 0.8799
...
Cumberland town 0.8197 (EB 0.8188)

The largest municipalities as and according to the 2018 estimates and their State House "quotas" are as follows:

=7.6 (8*0.95) "cutoff"=
Portland city 7.4932 (State Senate quota* 1.7368, between 1.05 and 1.9 "cutoffs")
=7.35 (7*1.05) "cutoff"=
...
=4.2 (4*1.05) "cutoff"=
Lewiston city 4.0552 (State Senate quota* 0.9400, below 0.95 "cutoff")
=4.0 mark=
=3.8 (4*0.95) "cutoff"=
Bangor city 3.6099
=3.15 (3*1.05) "cutoff"=
=3.0 mark=
South Portland city 2.8889
=2.85 (3*0.95) "cutoff"=
Auburn city 2.6170
Biddeford city 2.4272
Sanford city 2.3899
Brunswick town 2.3107
Scarborough town 2.2961
Saco city 2.2280
Westbrook city 2.1407
Augusta city 2.1076
=2.1 (2*1.05) "cutoff"=
Windham town 2.0803
=2.0 mark=
Gorham town 1.9914
=1.9 (2*0.95) "cutoff"=
Waterville city 1.8780
York town 1.4837
Falmouth town 1.3809
Kennebunk town 1.3007
Orono town 1.2048
Wells town 1.1896
Standish town 1.1376
Kittery town 1.1108
Cape Elizabeth town 1.0507
=1.05 "cutoff"=
Brewer city 1.0211
Presque Isle city 1.0152
Lisbon town 1.0130
Old Orchard Beach town 1.0050
=1.0 mark=
Topsham town 0.9987
Yarmouth town 0.9610
Freeport town 0.9601
=0.95 "cutoff"=
Bath city 0.9397
Buxton town 0.9375
Skowhegan town 0.9312
Gray town 0.9258
Cumberland town 0.9212
Ellsworth city 0.9080
[Old Town city (0.8415) + Penobscot Indian Island Reservation (0.0660)] 0.9075
...
Caribou city 0.8590

Taking the "Estimates base" from April 1, 2010 (usually within a few people of the official numbers) shown in the same Census Bureau tables showing the above estimates, and adding to it the population gains (negative for losses) from that base to July 1, 2018 multiplied by 10/8.25 (I use a linear progression rather than exponential as it has the benefit of municipal projections being the same as county projections), the following are the projected 2020 State House "quotas" for all municipalities (in descending order) with projected (or 2010) quotas above 0.9000:

=7.6 (8*0.95) "cutoff"=
Portland city 7.4867 (State Senate quota* 1.7353, between 1.05 and 1.9 "cutoffs")
=7.35 (7*1.05) "cutoff"=
...
=4.2 (4*1.05) "cutoff"=
Lewiston city 4.0333 (State Senate quota* 0.9349, below 0.95 "cutoff")
=4.0 mark=
=3.8 (4*0.95) "cutoff"=
Bangor city 3.5797
=3.15 (3*1.05) "cutoff"=
=3.0 mark=
South Portland city 2.8987
=2.85 (3*0.95) "cutoff"=
Auburn city 2.6161
Biddeford city 2.4291
Sanford city 2.3955
Scarborough town 2.3269
Brunswick town 2.3118
Saco city 2.2542
Westbrook city 2.1721
Windham town 2.1115
=2.1 (2*1.05) "cutoff"=
Augusta city 2.0933
Gorham town 2.0188
=2.0 mark=
=1.9 (2*0.95) "cutoff"=
Waterville city 1.8971
York town 1.4965
Falmouth town 1.4041
Kennebunk town 1.3162
Orono town 1.2105
Wells town 1.2105
Standish town 1.1408
Kittery town 1.1175
Cape Elizabeth town 1.0562
=1.05 "cutoff"=
Lisbon town 1.0105
Old Orchard Beach town 1.0105
Brewer city 1.0092
=1.0 mark=
Topsham town 0.9987
Presque Isle city 0.9970
Freeport town 0.9737
Yarmouth town 0.9635
=0.95 "cutoff"=
Cumberland town 0.9427
Buxton town 0.9426
Gray town 0.9349
Bath city 0.9338
Skowhegan town 0.9219
Ellsworth city 0.9139
[Old Town city (0.8309) + Penobscot Indian Island Reservation (0.0653)] 0.8962
...
Caribou city 0.8439

*assuming 35 Senators.  With 33 or 31, Lewiston would be too small for a Senate district even under the 2010 Census figures.  Portland would still be comfortably between 1.05 and 1.9 State Senate quotas.

**I grouped Old Town city and the Penobscot Indian Island Reservation (big enough for a House district in 2010, although there are a couple census blocks (perhaps with no population) outside those two municipalities in that district, I think because they were entirely surrounded by the Penobscot Reservation) together, as technically Old Town doesn't belong in these tables but I thought it should be included.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #627 on: May 24, 2019, 07:56:34 pm »

What does it say about Louisiana?

Why is Louisiana suffering?

Poverty, poor quality of life, New Orleans being prone to bad weather, a sluggish economy, and a homicide rate ranking in the top 10 of the 50 states

Also thanks to Bobby Jindal's economy.
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Cokeland Saxton
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« Reply #628 on: May 25, 2019, 12:19:33 am »

150 largest cities as of 2018:

1. New York, NY (8,398,748)
2. Los Angeles, CA (3,990,456)
3. Chicago, IL (2,705,994)
4. Houston, TX (2,325,502)
5. Phoenix, AZ (1,660,272)
6. Philadelphia, PA (1,584,138)
7. San Antonio, TX (1,532,233)
8. San Diego, CA (1,425,976)
9. Dallas, TX (1,345,047)
10. San Jose, CA (1,030,149)
11. Austin, TX  (964,254)
12. Jacksonville, FL (903,889)
13. Fort Worth, TX (895,008)
14. Columbus, OH (892,533)
15. San Francisco, CA (883,305)
16. Charlotte, NC (872,498)
17. Indianapolis, IN (867,125)
18. Seattle, WA (744,955)
19. Denver, CO (716,492)
20. Washington, DC (702,455)
21. Boston, MA (694,583)
22. El Paso, TX (682,669)
23. Detroit, MI (672,662)
24. Nashville, TN (669,053)
25. Portland, OR (653,115)
26. Memphis, TN (650,618)
27. Oklahoma City, OK (649,021)
28. Las Vegas, NV (644,644)
29. Louisville, KY (620,118)
30. Baltimore, MD (602,495)
31. Milwaukee, WI (592,025)
32. Albuquerque, NM (560,218)
33. Tucson, AZ (545,975)
34. Fresno, CA (530,093)
35. Mesa, AZ (508,958)
36. Sacramento, CA (508,529)
37. Atlanta, GA (498,044)
38. Kansas City, MO (491,918)
39. Colorado Springs, CO (472,688)
40. Miami, FL (470,914)
41. Raleigh, NC (469,298)
42. Omaha, NE (468,262)
43. Long Beach, CA (467,354)
44. Virginia Beach, VA (450,189)
45. Oakland, CA (429,082)
46. Minneapolis, MN (425,403)
47. Tulsa, OK (400,669)
48. Arlington, TX (398,112)
49. Tampa, FL (392,890)
50. New Orleans, LA (391,006)
51. Wichita, KS (389,255)
52. Cleveland, OH (383,793)
53. Bakersfield, CA (383,579)
54. Aurora, CO (374,114)
55. Anaheim, CA (352,005)
56. Honolulu, HI (347,397)
57. Santa Ana, CA (332,725)
58. Riverside, CA (330,063)
59. Corpus Christi, TX (326,554)
60. Lexington, KY (323,780)
61. Stockton, CA (311,178)
62. Henderson, NV (310,390)
63. St. Paul, MN (307,695)
64. St. Louis, MO (302,838)
65. Cincinnati, OH (302,605)
66. Pittsburgh, PA (301,048)
67. Greensboro, NC (294,722)
68. Anchorage, AK (291,538)
69. Plano, TX (288,061)
70. Lincoln, NE (287,401)
71. Orlando, FL (285,713)
72. Irvine (282,572)
73. Newark, NJ (282,090)
74. Toledo, OH (274,975)
75. Durham, NC (274,291)
76. Chula Vista, CA (271,651)
77. Fort Wayne, IN (267,633)
78. Jersey City, NJ (265,549)
79. St. Petersburg, FL (265,098)
80. Laredo, TX (261,639)
81. Madison, WI (258,054)
82. Chandler, AZ (257,165)
83. Buffalo, NY (256,304)
84. Lubbock, TX (255,885)
85. Scottsdale, AZ (255,310)
86. Reno, NV (250,998)
87. Glendale, AZ (250,702)
88. Gilbert, AZ (248,279)
89. Winston-Salem, NC (246,328)
90. North Las Vegas, NV (245,949)
91. Norfolk, VA (244,076)
92. Chesapeake, VA (242,634)
93. Garland, TX (242,507)
94. Irving, TX (242,242)
95. Hialeah, FL (238,942)
96. Fremont, CA (237,807)
97. Boise, ID (228,790)
98. Richmond, VA (228,783)
99. Baton Rouge, LA (221,599)
100. Spokane, WA (219,190)
101. Des Moines, IA (216,853)
102. Tacoma, WA (216,279)
103. San Bernardino, CA (215,941)
104. Modesto, CA (215,030)
105. Fontana, CA (213,739)
106. Santa Clarita, CA (210,089)
107. Birmingham, AL (209,880)
108. Oxnard, CA (209,877)
109. Fayetteville, NC (209,468)
110. Moreno Valley, CA (209,050)
111. Rochester, NY (206,284)
112. Glendale, CA (201,361)
113. Huntington Beach, CA (200,641)
114. Salt Lake City, UT (200,591)
115. Grand Rapids, MI (200,217)
116. Amarillo, TX (199,924)
117. Yonkers, NY (199,663)
118. Aurora, IL (199,602)
119. Montgomery, AL (198,218)
120. Akron, OH (198,006)
121. Little Rock, AR (197,881)
122. Huntsville, AL (197,318)
123. Augusta, GA (196,939)
124. Port St. Lucie, FL (195,248)
125. Grand Prairie, TX (194,614)
126. Columbus, GA (194,160)
127. Tallahassee, FL (193,551)
128. Overland Park, KS (192,536)
129. Tempe, AZ (192,364)
130. McKinney, TX (191,645)
131. Mobile, AL (189,572)
132. Cape Coral, FL (189,343)
133. Shreveport, LA (188,987)
134. Frisco, TX (188,170)
135. Knoxville, TN (187,500)
136. Worcester, MA (185,877)
137. Brownsville, TX (183,392)
138. Vancouver, WA (183,012)
139. Fort Lauderdale, FL (182,595)
140. Sioux Falls, SD (181,883)
141. Ontario, CA (181,107)
142. Chattanooga, TN (180,557)
143. Providence, RI (179,335)
144. Newport News, VA (178,626)   
145. Rancho Cucamonga, CA (177,751)
146. Santa Rosa, CA (177,586)
147. Oceanside, CA (176,080)
148. Salem, OR (173,442)
149. Elk Grove, CA (172,886)
150. Garden Grove, CA (172,646)
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DINGO Joe stands on Sanchez
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« Reply #629 on: May 26, 2019, 05:39:29 pm »

What does it say about Louisiana?

Why is Louisiana suffering?

Poverty, poor quality of life, New Orleans being prone to bad weather, a sluggish economy, and a homicide rate ranking in the top 10 of the 50 states

Louisiana has been number one for homicides for like a decade now or more.  I assumed the recent drop had to do with massive flooding in and around Baton Rouge in 2016 and Baton Rouge proper has lost population when it previously was one of the faster growing areas.  For whatever reason, North Louisiana and the Atchafalaya Basin took total beatdowns last year.  I can understand that the cost of doing business will erode the population in swamp areas (as the swamps erode themselves) but I don't know any particular reason for the hefty drop in the North (save for Vernon Parish which seems to have some military related decline), It's never been economically vibrant up there, but they really can't even claim to be stagnant right now.
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Epaminondas
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« Reply #630 on: July 25, 2019, 02:52:49 am »

Naive question: which states (outside at-large) wouldn't redistrict if their house seat total was unaffected in 2020 ?
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #631 on: July 25, 2019, 06:55:58 am »

Naive question: which states (outside at-large) wouldn't redistrict if their house seat total was unaffected in 2020 ?

Every state is required to redistrict for OMOV. Even states like Maine will shuffle a few towns around the edges, as in 2010. It is deeply unlikely that any state would have population changes so uniform that no tweaks to the maps were required.
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« Reply #632 on: July 26, 2019, 11:59:57 am »

Naive question: which states (outside at-large) wouldn't redistrict if their house seat total was unaffected in 2020 ?

Every state is required to redistrict for OMOV. Even states like Maine will shuffle a few towns around the edges, as in 2010. It is deeply unlikely that any state would have population changes so uniform that no tweaks to the maps were required.
West Virginia managed to get away without changing WV-01 in 2010.
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Strudelcutie4427
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« Reply #633 on: July 26, 2019, 01:26:21 pm »

Naive question: which states (outside at-large) wouldn't redistrict if their house seat total was unaffected in 2020 ?

If any it’d be one of the smaller ones like NH, ME, or HI
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jimrtex
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« Reply #634 on: July 27, 2019, 12:34:55 am »

Naive question: which states (outside at-large) wouldn't redistrict if their house seat total was unaffected in 2020 ?

Every state is required to redistrict for OMOV. Even states like Maine will shuffle a few towns around the edges, as in 2010. It is deeply unlikely that any state would have population changes so uniform that no tweaks to the maps were required.
Estimates for the two New Hampshire districts from the 2017 ACS are that they are about 0.27% of the ideal popoulation. The MOE is about 3 times the deviation, meaning that it is quite possible that NH-2 is the larger rather than smaller district.

I doubt that there is the political will to put Manchester and Nashua in the same district.

It is quite possible that swapping no single town will make the districts more equal, but I suspect that there is some swap of two or three towns that would be. In any case, NH would make an affirmative decision to re-enact the existing districts, rather than not redistricting.
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