Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 19, 2019, 01:41:45 pm
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Atlas Forum
  General Politics
  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderator: muon2)
  Census population estimates 2011-2019 (search mode)
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: Census population estimates 2011-2019  (Read 91853 times)
KingSweden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,301
United States


« on: November 23, 2013, 12:30:21 pm »

I'd say ND, then DC, then TX, then UT, then WA, then FL. No scientific reasons, just guesses Tongue

I also wonder if Michigan's population decline has stopped, though I suspect Rhode Island's has not. I expect most New England states to have more or less minimal growth.
Logged
KingSweden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,301
United States


« Reply #1 on: March 23, 2015, 07:59:47 pm »

Top Migration Gains(International and Domestic Combined.) (2010-2014)

Florida 917,135
Texas 905,754
California 459,574
North Carolina 233,880
Colorado 183,324
Washington 179,873
Arizona 172,848
Georgia 151,661
Virginia 145,072
South Carolina 139,545

Top Migration Losses(International and Domestic Combined.)

Illinois -190,144
Michigan -72,674
Ohio -50,959
New Mexico -18,886
Mississippi -16,999
Kansas -15,299
Wisconsin -11,288
Missouri -8,048
Connecticut -5,861
Alaska -4,700

We're #1! Cheesy

So are we. Sad

Where in Illinois are these people leaving from? Downstate or Chicagoland?
Logged
KingSweden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,301
United States


« Reply #2 on: March 24, 2015, 08:43:38 am »

Top Migration Gains(International and Domestic Combined.) (2010-2014)

Florida 917,135
Texas 905,754
California 459,574
North Carolina 233,880
Colorado 183,324
Washington 179,873
Arizona 172,848
Georgia 151,661
Virginia 145,072
South Carolina 139,545

Top Migration Losses(International and Domestic Combined.)

Illinois -190,144
Michigan -72,674
Ohio -50,959
New Mexico -18,886
Mississippi -16,999
Kansas -15,299
Wisconsin -11,288
Missouri -8,048
Connecticut -5,861
Alaska -4,700

We're #1! Cheesy

So are we. Sad

Where in Illinois are these people leaving from? Downstate or Chicagoland?

We'll find out on Thursday when the county estimates are released.

So Thursday is the day, then? Very exciting. I look forward to the county estimates more than the state ones.
Logged
KingSweden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,301
United States


« Reply #3 on: December 20, 2016, 05:58:58 pm »

Illinois losing 2 Congressional districts could put a damper on the ruthless gerrymander.

The county estimates will be interesting in that regard. Probably an odd mix of downstate and downscale Chicago suburbs
Logged
KingSweden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,301
United States


« Reply #4 on: May 25, 2017, 09:39:35 am »

Nashville passed Memphis to become the largest city in Tennessee.

Charleston passed Columbia to become the largest city in South Carolina.

It's always surprised me that Charleston and Nashville weren't previously the largest
Logged
KingSweden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,301
United States


« Reply #5 on: May 25, 2017, 11:19:19 am »

Has the data been posted yet?

I didn't see the raw data anywhere
Logged
KingSweden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,301
United States


« Reply #6 on: August 31, 2017, 09:59:06 pm »

Here's my annual projection from the new estimates. I used the July 2016 estimates and the April 2010 Census base to get an annual growth rate. This correctly accounts for the 6 and a quarter year period between the Census and the estimate. I then applied the annual growth rate to the 2010 reapportionment population to get the 2020 projection. This accounts for the extra overseas population used in reapportionment but not for redistricting. Ten years is a long stretch for a simple model like this, but here are the projected changes.

AL -1
AZ +1
CO +1
FL +2
IL -1
MI -1
MN -1
NY -1
NC +1
OH -1
OR +1
PA -1
RI -1
TX +3
WV -1

There is only one change since my projections last year. CA stays unchanged at 53 instead of adding a seat and FL gains 2 instead of 1 up to 29. The bubble seats in this projection are based on the last five awarded and the next five in line.
The last five awarded are IL-17, TX-39, CA-53, AZ-10, and FL-29 (#435).
The next five in line are MT-2, AL-7, CA-54, VA-12, and MN-8.

An alternate projection could use just the last two years of estimates to determine the rate of growth for the rest of the decade. That model gives the same projection as the one above, with changes only in the order of the bubble seats.

I think it's fairly safe to say Harvey ended any chance of Texas gaining three seats in the next census.  Even if the disruption proves only half as bad as Katrina, there will be a lot of people who otherwise might live in Texas who won't be able to thirty-one months from now.

So they'll just gain 2, then?
Logged
KingSweden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,301
United States


« Reply #7 on: September 30, 2017, 07:08:06 pm »

We can project the decennial change forward (for states that are losing population share, the value will decline, since it really relative to its current population share, and vice versa for gainers).

Alabama: If no loss in 2020, it will lose in 2030. The drop to 5 will occur in 2060, but possibly 2050.
Alaska: No change - Alaska is growing slower than the US as a whole.
Arizona: Will gain a district every 20 years, but this could be quite irregular. For example if it doesn't gain a district in 2020, it could gain in 2030 and 2040.
Arkansas: Drops to 3 in 2060.
California: Could gain 54th in 2030 or 2040.
Colorado: Gains 8th in 2020 and 9th in 2040.
Connecticut: Loses 5th in 2030.
Delaware: Will get its 2nd seat back in 2070 (Wyoming and Alaska are only states that have never had at least two representatives).
Florida: Will gain two representatives per decade, though like Arizona, this may be irregular (1 some decades or 3 others).
Georgia: Gains 15th in 2040 (Georgia is increasing its lead on North Carolina)
Hawaii: No change (at current rate would gain 3rd seat in 2440).
Idaho: 3rd in 2040 (or perhaps 2050).
Illinois: Could lose 2 in 2030. By 2040 will be behind Georgia, and there will be increasing references to Atlantaland as distinguished from Downstate Georgia.
Indiana: Could lose in 2030, but more likely 2040.
Iowa: Loses in 2080. Des Moines in western district?
Kansas: Could lose in 2040, but 2050 is more likely.
Kentucky: Loses 6th in 2040, though 2050 is possible.
Louisiana: Loses 6th in 2080.
Maine: Loses 2nd in 2050, will they change their electoral vote allocation to 3 electoral districts?
Massachusetts: No losses until 2090.
Michigan: One per decade, but may be unchanged in 2040 or 2050. Michigan drops to 10th this decade, passed by Georgia and North Carolina, but won't drop out of top 10 until passed by Washington or Arizona in 2040 or 2050.
Minnesota: Will not lose another for the next century.
Mississippi: Possibly loses 4th in 2040, certainly by 2050.
Missouri: Loses 8th in 2040.
Montana: Regains 2nd in 2030? Montana is like a swimmer swimming against the current. Their position never changes.
Nebraska: May cling to 3rd indefinitely.
Nevada: Could gain 5th in 2040, particularly if housing bubble abates.
New Hampshire: Loses 2nd in 2060.
New Jersey: Loses 12th in 2030, and 11th in 2050.
New Mexico: Could lose 3rd in 2040.
New York: Should continue to lose one district per decade.
North Carolina: Very solid for 14th district in 2020. Could gain 15th in 2040. If not then, 2050.
North Dakota: Could regain 2nd by 2050, but that assumes continued growth in the Williston Basin.
Ohio: Will continue to lose a district per decade.
Oklahoma: Growing only slightly slower than country as a whole. Could have 5 districts forever.
Oregon: Could gain 7th district in 2080.
Pennsylvania: Will continue to lose a district per decade. Could see a loss of two due to rounding in the next few decades.
Rhode Island: Leads the path for Maine and New Hampshire to a single district.
South Carolina: Could gain 8th in 2050, maybe sooner if Charlotte spillover increases.
South Dakota: Regains 2nd in 2110.
Tennessee: Stuck on 9 forever.
Texas: Will add 3 or 4 each decade. Could surpass California by 2070.
Utah: Will likely gain 5th in 2030.
Vermont: Will likely fall below Wyoming by 2030.
Virginia: Possibility of 12 in 2040, but 2050 more likely.
West Virginia: Will keep 2 until at least 2070.
Wisconsin: Will lose 8th in 2030, as it will probably fall behind Minnesota.
Wyoming: One forever.

Great list, though it appears you missed Washington.
Logged
KingSweden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,301
United States


« Reply #8 on: October 02, 2017, 09:27:06 am »

We can project the decennial change forward (for states that are losing population share, the value will decline, since it really relative to its current population share, and vice versa for gainers).

Alabama: If no loss in 2020, it will lose in 2030. The drop to 5 will occur in 2060, but possibly 2050.
Alaska: No change - Alaska is growing slower than the US as a whole.
Arizona: Will gain a district every 20 years, but this could be quite irregular. For example if it doesn't gain a district in 2020, it could gain in 2030 and 2040.
Arkansas: Drops to 3 in 2060.
California: Could gain 54th in 2030 or 2040.
Colorado: Gains 8th in 2020 and 9th in 2040.
Connecticut: Loses 5th in 2030.
Delaware: Will get its 2nd seat back in 2070 (Wyoming and Alaska are only states that have never had at least two representatives).
Florida: Will gain two representatives per decade, though like Arizona, this may be irregular (1 some decades or 3 others).
Georgia: Gains 15th in 2040 (Georgia is increasing its lead on North Carolina)
Hawaii: No change (at current rate would gain 3rd seat in 2440).
Idaho: 3rd in 2040 (or perhaps 2050).
Illinois: Could lose 2 in 2030. By 2040 will be behind Georgia, and there will be increasing references to Atlantaland as distinguished from Downstate Georgia.
Indiana: Could lose in 2030, but more likely 2040.
Iowa: Loses in 2080. Des Moines in western district?
Kansas: Could lose in 2040, but 2050 is more likely.
Kentucky: Loses 6th in 2040, though 2050 is possible.
Louisiana: Loses 6th in 2080.
Maine: Loses 2nd in 2050, will they change their electoral vote allocation to 3 electoral districts?
Massachusetts: No losses until 2090.
Michigan: One per decade, but may be unchanged in 2040 or 2050. Michigan drops to 10th this decade, passed by Georgia and North Carolina, but won't drop out of top 10 until passed by Washington or Arizona in 2040 or 2050.
Minnesota: Will not lose another for the next century.
Mississippi: Possibly loses 4th in 2040, certainly by 2050.
Missouri: Loses 8th in 2040.
Montana: Regains 2nd in 2030? Montana is like a swimmer swimming against the current. Their position never changes.
Nebraska: May cling to 3rd indefinitely.
Nevada: Could gain 5th in 2040, particularly if housing bubble abates.
New Hampshire: Loses 2nd in 2060.
New Jersey: Loses 12th in 2030, and 11th in 2050.
New Mexico: Could lose 3rd in 2040.
New York: Should continue to lose one district per decade.
North Carolina: Very solid for 14th district in 2020. Could gain 15th in 2040. If not then, 2050.
North Dakota: Could regain 2nd by 2050, but that assumes continued growth in the Williston Basin.
Ohio: Will continue to lose a district per decade.
Oklahoma: Growing only slightly slower than country as a whole. Could have 5 districts forever.
Oregon: Could gain 7th district in 2080.
Pennsylvania: Will continue to lose a district per decade. Could see a loss of two due to rounding in the next few decades.
Rhode Island: Leads the path for Maine and New Hampshire to a single district.
South Carolina: Could gain 8th in 2050, maybe sooner if Charlotte spillover increases.
South Dakota: Regains 2nd in 2110.
Tennessee: Stuck on 9 forever.
Texas: Will add 3 or 4 each decade. Could surpass California by 2070.
Utah: Will likely gain 5th in 2030.
Vermont: Will likely fall below Wyoming by 2030.
Virginia: Possibility of 12 in 2040, but 2050 more likely.
West Virginia: Will keep 2 until at least 2070.
Wisconsin: Will lose 8th in 2030, as it will probably fall behind Minnesota.
Wyoming: One forever.

Great list, though it appears you missed Washington.
Washington: Had a population just short of 9.5 in 2010, but got its 10th seat by a favorable rounding. Adding about 1/2 seat per decade, it will have 10 solid representatives in 2020  (in 2010 the districts were slightly underpopulated relative to the US). Will possibly get a favorable rounding in 2030, or for certain an 11th district in 2040.


Thanks!
Logged
KingSweden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,301
United States


« Reply #9 on: December 20, 2017, 12:33:51 pm »

The estimates this year had few surprises, but next year may be different. The impact of the 2017 hurricanes will show up in the 2018 estimates. For example, a wave from PR to NY might keep NY from losing a seat.

Think TX might get bounced down to just 2 seats in such a scenario?
Logged
KingSweden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,301
United States


« Reply #10 on: March 06, 2018, 10:56:11 pm »

Krazen is bad at trolling AND math. Who knew.
Logged
KingSweden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,301
United States


« Reply #11 on: March 12, 2018, 11:24:00 am »

Any predictions for the census county estimates?
Logged
KingSweden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,301
United States


« Reply #12 on: March 13, 2018, 10:05:36 am »

Any predictions for the census county estimates?

The state of Alaska released its own estimates, and Mat-Su Borough was the only county equivalent there that was significantly growing. I suspect that Census will find the same. Alaskaís full report is here: http://labor.alaska.gov/trends/mar18.pdf

I also think the Western ND oil counties will show very slow growth or a population decline.

On that last point, I suspect you are right
Logged
KingSweden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,301
United States


« Reply #13 on: March 21, 2018, 06:51:26 pm »

County estimates come out tomorrow morning, likely around 10AM Eastern. Any guesses on what they will show?

Iím thinking Texas counties still leading the way, and breakneck growth % wise in King (WA), Ada (ID) and the Atlanta counties
Logged
KingSweden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,301
United States


« Reply #14 on: March 21, 2018, 07:08:54 pm »

County estimates come out tomorrow morning, likely around 10AM Eastern. Any guesses on what they will show?

Iím thinking Texas counties still leading the way, and breakneck growth % wise in King (WA), Ada (ID) and the Atlanta counties

Maricopa, AZ actually had the largest numerical increase last year. Will that continue? Or will it be another county this year?

That honestly wouldnít surprise me but who knows. I could see it slowing with lessened Latino in migration
Logged
KingSweden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,301
United States


« Reply #15 on: March 22, 2018, 09:54:27 am »

Canít wait to dive into these numbers
Logged
KingSweden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,301
United States


« Reply #16 on: March 22, 2018, 04:26:21 pm »

Off topic, but it's interesting going back to the first few pages of this thread and seeing Krazen actually posting somewhat intelligent, thoughtful comments. what happened between then and now?

Absolutely outstanding cocaine
Logged
KingSweden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,301
United States


« Reply #17 on: May 24, 2018, 11:19:14 pm »

In a few years Columbus will be bigger than SF
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines