Census population estimates 2011-2019

[Oryxslayer]

I doubt the NY migration will have much of an effect, probably the greatest impacts will be forcing the lost seat to be upstate and perhaps giving Velazquez an actual HVAP seat. FL movement will probably lock down their second gain, and perhaps direct both seat towards the I-4, rather then one 1-4 and one Miami metro seat.

The Houston hurricane is perhaps the most interesting. While those with flood insurance were probably secure, a bunch of housing in the region is now covered in mold and other flood related issues. It wouldn't take much to push Texas below their third seat, giving it to Montana. The questions is, will the losses from Houston move the needle for one year enough to temporarily slow the rapid growth of the state, 

[Oryxslayer]

This is a closer look at the states of interest.

Excellent analysis as always, the only comment I would make is on NY. You actually already did a congressional district evaluation a while ago, and we found that ot was the Upstate CDs dropping pop like a stone. I recall the downstate Cds were a wash (some overpopulated, others underpopulated) whereas the upstate CDs were all between .98 and .92 of a CD in their respective year. It rather is not Puerto Ricans moving, but rather the usual Rust Velt decline we see across the great lakes area.

So it's quite likely both MT and RI have just 1 CD?

What MT is wishing for is radical change from the Hurricanes. Present growth rates are, as jimrtex has shown, are pretty much locked in. TX will probably experience a small slowdown next year as marginal number of families leave the Gulf Coast for other states (The majority stayed in the state), and as the construction market in the region freezes building new homes to repair and clean up the old damaged ones. Probably won't cause a significant downturn, but might be enough - and MT hopes, that they miss CD #3.

The east coast will also go through a shakeup as Puerto Ricans move to the mainland. The majority will no doubt head to NY and FL, locking in CD #2  fr the Sunshine state, and ensuring the cut CD in NY is upstate - probably NY 22 due to its central location. Some however will hed to areas with Puerto Rican communities like Reading PA.

[Oryxslayer]

Off topic, but it's interesting going back to the first few pages of this thread and seeing Krazen actually posting somewhat intelligent, thoughtful comments. what happened between then and now?

When I first got here I read all the old 2010 redistricting threads. There, Krazen was an insightful and pleasantly constant presence from the right. It's like a complete 180 if you go and read them.

[Oryxslayer]

Where are these thoughts of NY losing two seats coming from? It seems NY has been on track to lose 1 for 7 years or so. That seat itself has always been likely to be NY22/NY24  as Dems carve up Katko and protect Brindisi or another Dem. I mean of course Dems are going to get messy with the lines in Long Island, Staten Island, and the Hudson Valley, but that is to be expected.

[Oryxslayer]

Where are these thoughts of NY losing two seats coming from? It seems NY has been on track to lose 1 for 7 years or so. That seat itself has always been likely to be NY22/NY24  as Dems carve up Katko and protect Brindisi or another Dem. I mean of course Dems are going to get messy with the lines in Long Island, Staten Island, and the Hudson Valley, but that is to be expected.

With the addition of the 2018 census, the map has changed.

Ah ok, the pop adjustments downward shoved the bottom out. Glancing at that map, could someone explain MN? MT and CA are constant bubble seats so that's understandable, but MN I believe lost the pop for MN08 back pre-2015. Is the state growing fast again? Or was it just shoved out of the way by NY?

Redistricting-wise, I suspect the second cut will be one of NY-18/19/20 in the Husdon Valley, or a Long Island seat with the remaining ones all getting shoved that much deeper into NY. Gives the dems a better hand, since there would now be more 'free' voters to mess with.

[Oryxslayer]

Where are these thoughts of NY losing two seats coming from? It seems NY has been on track to lose 1 for 7 years or so. That seat itself has always been likely to be NY22/NY24  as Dems carve up Katko and protect Brindisi or another Dem. I mean of course Dems are going to get messy with the lines in Long Island, Staten Island, and the Hudson Valley, but that is to be expected.

With the addition of the 2018 census, the map has changed.

Ah ok, the pop adjustments downward shoved the bottom out. Glancing at that map, could someone explain MN? MT and CA are constant bubble seats so that's understandable, but MN I believe lost the pop for MN08 back pre-2015. Is the state growing fast again? Or was it just shoved out of the way by NY?

Redistricting-wise, I suspect the second cut will be one of NY-18/19/20 in the Husdon Valley, or a Long Island seat with the remaining ones all getting shoved that much deeper into NY. Gives the dems a better hand, since there would now be more 'free' voters to mess with.

I answered the MN question back in Dec. You can see my bubble list in the answer below. I know the owner of the company that produced that map, and we've talked about our respective projections. He uses a slightly different projection model than I do which accounts for the differences in NY and MN. We both use full decade and 3-year averages and compare the results. He has a CA/MN flip based on that which I do not.

The last five awarded are IL-17, FL-29, TX-39, NY-26, and MT-2 (#435).
The next five in line are CA53, AL-7, MN-8, OH-15, and VA-12.

Wow, that seems new!  I thought MN was definitely doomed.

MN is now the fastest growing state in the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region. They've paced the national average for the decade and are slightly ahead of it over the last two years. If they keep up their current pace of the last year or two they have a definite shot at holding their 8th seat.

Thanks!

[Oryxslayer]

MT-02 is now a possibility again? My how things change. I remember the days when it was so close but missed the mark.

It has always been like that. It and +1 or -1 for California have always been on the bubble it seems.

[Oryxslayer]

So barring some sudden slowdown/decline, Oklahoma county will have enough people for it's own congressional district in 2020.    Any chance it gets one or will it get the Salt Lake county treatment?

The only reason the Oklahoma districts look nice right now is because the GOP in 2010 had nothing to fear from the dems - they were winning zero counties after all. Now, its guaranteed Oklahoma City is going to get tricut between her blood red neghbors.

[Oryxslayer]

The Northeast region as a whole lost population last year.    10 states lost population too,  one higher than last year. 

New York lost almost 77k people, does that mean it'll lose two congressional districts?

Its looking extremely likely at this point.

And one could make the argument that both seats should come at the expense of Upstate New York.

Well,it's not the city or her immediate suburbs behind the loss, that's been shown during the past counts. Last time I checked the mid-decade CD numbers, the NYC seats balanced each other out between those that had added pop and those that had shrunk. Maybe since the adjustment this year  that changed, but it's still mostly the more Appalachian/rust belt upstate behind the losses. Of course, forcing the second cut to come from upstate after she already lost one is a challenge. It's more likely Long Island will bear the loss (probably NY02) since she is also losing pop.

[Oryxslayer]

Here's my annual projection from the new estimates. I used the July 2019 estimates and the April 2010 Census base to get an annual growth rate. This correctly accounts for the 9 and a quarter year period between the Census and the estimate. I then applied the annual growth rate to the 2010 reapportionment population to get the 2020 projection. This accounts for the extra overseas population used in reapportionment but not for redistricting (It doesn't adjust for the new distinction between deployed vs stationed).

AL -1
AZ +1
CA -1
CO +1
FL +2
IL -1
MI -1
MN -1
MT +1
NY -1
NC +1
OH -1
OR +1
PA -1
RI -1
TX +3
WV -1

These projections are unchanged from last year. The bubble seats in this projection are based on the last five awarded and the next five in line.
The last five awarded are IL-17, FL-29, TX-39, NY-26, and MT-2 (#435).
The next five in line are AL-7, MN-8, CA-53, OH-16, and RI-2.

I also make an alternate projection based on just the prior two years of estimates to determine the rate of growth. It's more sensitive to recent growth trends, and matches the full decade projection.

How close is AL from keeping its 7th seat? EDS says they'd need to pick up 10,072 unexpected residents to keep their seat - but I don't think that takes into account the overseas population. AL has more military than most states (2.23% of the 2010 overseas pop vs. 1.55% of the overall 2019 pop) - so I suspect it's closer than that.

According to my spreadsheet it depends on what the projected growth rate will be in the last year of the decade. If I use my full decade projection AL needs about 16K to overtake MT. However, if I use the average of just the last two years of estimates, MT only needs about 5K to overtake NY and about 10K to overtake MT. The effect of the change in DoD classification probably makes it harder for AL to get #435.

There's also NY-26 which as covered elsewhere, is vulnerable to the states growth rate declining over the decade. Overall I would say the last two seats here, NY-26 and MT-02, could end up in any number of states. It could be those two, or it could have one or both swapped out for AL, MT, or CA.

[Oryxslayer]

Good breakdown jimrtex. The only thing that I would add is that CA is pouring in millions to assist the census 'discover' residents. The South Valley has a lot of hard-to-reach migratory groups, and CA is pouring in money to ensure every resident is counted, especially those groups missed in 2010. The margin of error around projections therefore is larger here and in other border states, so it's one thing working in the states favor. In contrast, TX has a lot of hard-to-reach groups as well, but the state is putting aside 0$ to assist in contacting their residents (for political reasons of course) so the MOE around those projections is less in their favor.

[Oryxslayer]

Good breakdown jimrtex. The only thing that I would add is that CA is pouring in millions to assist the census 'discover' residents. The South Valley has a lot of hard-to-reach migratory groups, and CA is pouring in money to ensure every resident is counted, especially those groups missed in 2010. The margin of error around projections therefore is larger here and in other border states, so it's one thing working in the states favor. In contrast, TX has a lot of hard-to-reach groups as well, but the state is putting aside 0$ to assist in contacting their residents (for political reasons of course) so the MOE around those projections is less in their favor.

It is unclear whether you are referring to the San Joaquin Valley, or southern San Fernando Valley.

Estimates of undercount(PDF)

The undercount for California in 2020 is estimated to be 0.60%, while California is estimated to be short by 0.5% of holding on to its 53rd seat.

There might be areas where the undercount was higher, but also lower such as in Marin. And is the mass outreach effective?

Not OP, but I’m assuming Oryx means the south part of the Central Valley/San Joaquin Valley, which is a big farming area full of migrants.

Yep. I'm not saying the projections will be wrong, this census ACS data is good. However, every state has a MOE around these projections, which you tried to describe. All I'm saying is that some states have smaller or wider MOE's, and certain states and regions are trying their hardest to make the MOE move in their favor.

Generally, hard to count regions are Rural + Residential Minority, be it AA, Canadian, Native, or most notably Hispanic.

[Oryxslayer]

Combining Washington and Baltimore into one CSA makes me wonder if they'd ever do the same with Chicago and Milwaukee.

Definitely a possibility, although I'm not sure if commuting between Lake County and Kenosha/Racine is increasing.. A more intriguing possibility is New York-Philadelphia. Last census, Mercer county hit the commuting threshold to combine the two but it was overridden. At some point or another, the two will be attached, which will be weird. I guess we'll have to call the area Greater Jersey.

Eventually the Northeast CSA will just be the entire Acela corridor, linked by the businessmen who crisscross the cities on their daily commutes. Efficient changes in car design or increased development of commuter networks will probably be needed, but those seem inevitable given the progress of time.

[Oryxslayer]

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/07/08/study-in-a-first-california-poised-to-lose-house-seats/?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=socialflow&utm_medium=social&utm_content=tw-mercnews

It smells like clickbait, but at the same time California has a large number of 'hard to count' census regions, mostly areas in the valley with Rural Hispanic populations. The article mostly talks about the effects and why it might happen, corona and ensuing response rates, rather than the math behind it - typical of puff pieces. So, could our resident calculators like Jimrtex and Cinyc voice in on the scenario outlined about California losing two seats.

[Oryxslayer]

In 2021, there may be an emphasis on creating a districts that would be by a Hispanic candidate, essentially pairing Karen Bass and Maxine Waters.

By which we mean a candidate of the Hispanic community's choice, not necessarily a Hispanic candidate.

Unfortunately, the commission having three AA commissioners make such action unlikely. We have discussed this at length in the CA thread. However, I thank jimrtex for doing the math regarding the article in question.