Census population estimates 2011-2019

[Annatar]

The drop in population growth nationally really seems to have hit a lot of the larger counties. Of the 10 most populous counties, all 10 had positive growth between 2010-2017 and 3 of them lost population between 2017-18. Only Maricopa is still seeing strong growth, even Harris county which grew by 1.9% p.a. in 2010-2017 grew by only 0.7% in 2017-18. Miami-Dade which grew by 1.3% p.a. in 2010-2017 grew by only 0.6%. Dallas county after growing by 1.5% p.a. in 2010-2017 slowed down to 0.6%.

As fertility continues to fall in America and deaths rise as the population ages I expect growth to slow down even further.

[Annatar]

What's really slowing down growth in the metro areas and nationally is the rapidly falling fertility rate, that is why natural growth has gone from 0.6% to 0.3% from 2007 to 2017. Fertility in 2017 was 1.77, based off the first 9 months of birth data in 2018 it looks like it will fall to 1.72, a record low and in the states which have released birth data for the first few months of 2019 fertility has continued to fall. I would't be surprised if fertility went below 1.7 this year. The fall is driven in my opinion by cultural factors, there is a real shift among younger Americans towards 1 child families or not having children at all.  

[Annatar]

I think that is the first time US growth has gone below 0.5% since the Census Bureau started tracking population estimates year to year.

Also there is a real chance now the US might not reach 330 million by time of the Census which is on April 1 2020 if the 2018-19 population growth rate is what occurs through to April 2020.

[Annatar]

I think that is the first time US growth has gone below 0.5% since the Census Bureau started tracking population estimates year to year.

It has never been that low.

Maybe in the 1920s or 1930s during the Economic Depression.

Well even in 1930-1940 the population grew by 0.7% per annum and I doubt it dipped below 0.5% in any year.

[Annatar]

Population decline in New York and Illinois is now approaching levels you see in Eastern Europe, both states lost over 0.6% of their population in 2019-20, kind of amazing NY once had 45 districts and now will have 25 after 2020, just a complete collapse in the post ww2 era.