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  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderator: muon2)
  Census population estimates 2011-2019 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Census population estimates 2011-2019  (Read 92080 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 48,419
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
« on: November 18, 2013, 08:18:51 am »
« edited: December 30, 2013, 01:08:51 pm by Tender Branson »

New state population estimates will be released in ca. 1 month !

My prediction:

316.159.818
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 48,419
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
« Reply #1 on: November 19, 2013, 10:40:29 am »

TX will have the largest numerical growth once again: ca. 400-450K I guess.

It's hard to say which state will have the highest % growth though: ND again ? Or DC ? Or WY ? Or UT ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 48,419
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
« Reply #2 on: November 24, 2013, 06:34:35 am »

314,159,265

More or less.

Though I fear that may be an irrational answer.


The official Mid-2012 population was already 313,914,040

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/00000.html

You might change your prediction, because the US typically grows by 0.7% each year now.

Wink
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 48,419
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
« Reply #3 on: November 28, 2013, 10:43:33 am »

319,030,466

1.6% growth has not happened in the US since the 1970s ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 48,419
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
« Reply #4 on: December 06, 2013, 09:56:23 am »

There's a release date now:

Dec. 30

http://www.calendarwiz.com/calendars/popup.php?op=view&id=70683196&crd=cens1sample&
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 48,419
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
« Reply #5 on: December 28, 2013, 02:21:10 am »

The numbers are out on Monday.

A fact: Georgia will top 10 million for the first time.

A 50-50 chance: Florida will overtake New York already this year.

A possibility: North Carolina will overtake Michigan (certainly next year, if not this year).
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 48,419
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
« Reply #6 on: December 28, 2013, 02:43:07 am »

My predictions for the Top 10 in terms of 01.07.2013 population:

01 - CA (38.39)
02 - TX (26.48)
03 - NY (19.65)
04 - FL (19.55)
05 - IL (12.90)
06 - PA (12.78]
07 - OH (11.55)
08 - GA (10.03)
09 - MI (9.90)
10 - NC (9.86)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 48,419
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
« Reply #7 on: December 30, 2013, 10:05:11 am »

The numbers are out:

01 - CA (38.333)
02 - TX (26.448)
03 - NY (19.651)
04 - FL (19.553)
05 - IL (12.882)
06 - PA (12.774]
07 - OH (11.571)
08 - GA (9.992) !!!
09 - MI (9.896)
10 - NC (9.848)

GA has less than 10 Mio. ?

WTF ?

http://www.census.gov/popest/data/state/totals/2013/tables/NST-EST2013-01.xls
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 48,419
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
« Reply #8 on: December 30, 2013, 10:06:29 am »

USA: 316.128.839
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 48,419
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
« Reply #9 on: December 30, 2013, 10:11:19 am »

Biggest numerical gains:

TX (387.000)
CA (333.000)
FL (232.000)
NC (100.000)
CO (79.000)
GA (77.000)
WA (76.000)
AZ (76.000)
NY (75.000)
VA (74.000)

Losses:

ME (-199)
WV (-2400)

USA (2.255.000)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 48,419
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
« Reply #10 on: December 30, 2013, 10:16:10 am »

Biggest % gains/losses (2012 -> 2013):

ND (+3.14)
DC (+2.06)
UT (+1.61)
CO (+1.52)
TX (+1.49)
NV (+1.30)
SD (+1.30)
FL (+1.20)
AZ (+1.15)
WA (+1.10)
SC (+1.09)

ME (-0.01)
WV (-0.13)

USA (0.72)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 48,419
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
« Reply #11 on: December 30, 2013, 10:20:20 am »

I nailed 5 of 10 states in my prediction and wasn't really that much off with my national prediction either ... Smiley
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 48,419
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
« Reply #12 on: December 30, 2013, 10:44:57 am »

Img
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 48,419
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
« Reply #13 on: December 30, 2013, 12:26:07 pm »

A couple more charts for easier viewing:

Sorted by numerical change

Img


Sorted by % change

Img
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 48,419
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
« Reply #14 on: December 30, 2013, 12:40:35 pm »

Cumulative % change (Census 2010 -> Mid 2013):

7.6% ND
7.4% DC
5.2% TX
5.0% UT
4.8% CO
4.0% FL
3.8% SD
3.7% WA
3.7% AZ
3.5% AK
3.4% WY

Losses:

ME & RI (ME was stagnant - lost only 59 people in 3 years, RI lost 0.1%)
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 48,419
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
« Reply #15 on: December 30, 2013, 12:46:46 pm »

Cumulative numerical change (Census 2010 -> Mid 2013):

1.303.000 TX
1.079.000 CA
   752.000 FL
   313.000 NC
   305.000 GA
   273.000 NY
   259.000 VA
   247.000 WA
   239.000 CO
   235.000 AZ

7.383.000 USA
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 48,419
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
« Reply #16 on: December 30, 2013, 12:52:08 pm »

A couple more charts for easier viewing:

Sorted by numerical change

(pic)


Over 17% over the growth in the US is in TX.

Yeah, the fact that TX has a relatively high birth rate (1.5% in 2012) and a low birth rate (0.7%) is helping.

TX grew by 1.5%, of which 0.8% came from a birth surplus and 0.7% from a migration surplus.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 48,419
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
« Reply #17 on: December 30, 2013, 12:56:24 pm »

Question:

What about Puerto Rico ?

Migration to the mainland ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 48,419
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
« Reply #18 on: December 30, 2013, 12:58:51 pm »

2012 to 2013 growth population:



MA really sticks out.  Also MN and NM.  Why would NM be lagging?

Over average growth: 279
Under average growth: 248
On par growth: 11

Better border enforcement (=> Mexicans staying in Mexico) ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 48,419
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
« Reply #19 on: December 30, 2013, 01:09:17 pm »

Updated topic title.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 48,419
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
« Reply #20 on: December 30, 2013, 01:13:45 pm »

Does anyone know if any states switched spots in population rankings?

UT passed KS over the last year and NE passed WV.

That's all.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 48,419
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
« Reply #21 on: December 30, 2013, 01:23:04 pm »

Just checked the NM situation:

NM had a birth rate of 1.3% in 2012 and a death rate of 0.8% - a surplus of 0.5%

But the overall population growth was just 0.1%, which indicates a massive out-migration.

The Census Bureau decided to release the "components of change" separately this time, in February ... Tongue
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 48,419
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
« Reply #22 on: December 30, 2013, 02:36:39 pm »

If Austria were a US state, where would it be in the ranking ?

12th in terms of overall population (8.502 Mio.)

11th in terms of numerical change (62.000)

Slightly above the US average in % terms (0.73%)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 48,419
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
« Reply #23 on: December 31, 2013, 02:59:56 am »

If Austria were a US state, where would it be in the ranking ?

12th in terms of overall population (8.502 Mio.)

11th in terms of numerical change (62.000)

Slightly above the US average in % terms (0.73%)

I'll do the same for Israel:

13th in terms of overall population (8.132 Mio.)

4th in terms of numerical change (147,000)

3rd in terms of percent change (1.8%)

Israel is similar to Utah, having the same high birth rate and low death rate. Plus a good share of immigration as well.

Here, births and deaths are about equal - with all of the growth coming from foreigners moving in.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 48,419
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
« Reply #24 on: December 31, 2013, 06:51:53 am »

Here's my comprehensive chart, based on the Census Bureau file yesterday (click right for big version):

Img


I added the 4 "change" columns to the CB file and formatted it slightly.

In previous years, the CB always added the "change" columns themselves.

This year, they were extremely lazy ... Wink
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