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  Census population estimates 2011-2019 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Census population estimates 2011-2019  (Read 92172 times)
Skill and Chance
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« on: December 20, 2012, 05:05:42 pm »

So, thinking about this in partisan terms:

RI: -1D

CA: +1D (new majority Hispanic seat)

CO: +1D

FL: Probably +1D (a court would require an additional Hispanic district under FDF)

IL: Probably -1R (although a court would draw -1D due to Chicago population loss)

MI: -1D (although in court at least 2 seats would flip from R+ to D+)

MN: -1R or -1Peterson

NY: Fair Fight or -1R

NC: +1R (will need to make McIntyre's seat permanently D for it to work, though)

OH: -1R

PA: Are they crazy enough to try -1D?  Probably a Fair Fight otherwise

TX: +2R +1D (or +3R if VRA doesn't apply to redistricting after next year)

VA: +1D

WV: -1R (don't think Rahall is still in WV-03 in 2020)
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #1 on: December 20, 2012, 10:40:38 pm »

Overall, this looks like it could be kinder to D's than the last several reapportionments, assuming that CO and VA keep voting left of the nation through 2020.  And most of the Rust Belt states will have no choice but to eliminate R's.  If any of OH, MI or VA are sent to court they will be D goldmines (PA less so because R's control the court).
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #2 on: December 01, 2013, 10:04:07 pm »

New state population estimates will be released in ca. 1 month !

My prediction:

316.159.818
315,712,013

NC+1, MN-1 remains only apportionment change, until 2014 when Texas gains from Michigan.
Minnesota has already lost a US House Seat in this decade?  I thought Minnesota might stave off a lost US House Seat in this decade since it ranks 16th in population growth so far in 2011-2012. I know before the 2010 Census came out people thought Minnesota was gonna lose a House Seat to Colorado but it didn't happen. Now it looks likes it has happened. Maybe Colorado could have gained a seat from Missouri and Minnesota would have kept 8 House Seats would have been the scenario that I thought could have played out. Missouri's population growth has been miserable in 2011-2012.
If there was independent rounding, Minnesota would have had 7 representatives in 2010, since it had less than 7.5/435 of the total population.  But the same was true for FL, CA, WA, and TX.  These 4 states along with MN were apportioned an extra seat to make the total 435.

Based on the ranking:
429 GA
430 SC
431 FL
432 CA
433 WA
434 MN
435 TX
=====
436 NC
437 MO
438 NY
439 NJ
440 MT
441 LA

To keep its 8th seat, MN has to avoid being passed by two states, or alternatively pass some states ahead of it.

If you think of it as a finish of a long distance race, MN is in a pack with some fast finishers, and it just barely kept ahead of NC and TX.  If the race was another 100 yards TX and NC would have caught MN.   Also from 2010 to 2012, MN was 28th fastest, which is just mediocre.

Because of this cluster of fast gainers just above the threshold, and mostly slow gainers below, there have been few changes so far.   TX easily went past MN into 435, and then NC gained its 14th seat and the expense of MN.

By the time the slow growing states drop down to the level of MN, faster growing states have caught up.

2014: TX gains 37th (essentially it has lapped MN), MI loses 14th.
2015: VA gains 12th, PA loses 18th.
2016: TX gains 38th, RI loses 2nd.
2017: FL gains 28th, IL loses 18th.
2018: CO gains 8th, OH loses 16th.
2020: TX gains 39th, CA gains 54th, WV loses 3rd, NY loses 27th.

By 2020, MN will not yet have caught WV and NY, and OR will have surpassed it.

Based on projecting April 2010 census to July 2012 estimate forward to April 2020, Minnesota will have grown 6.5%.  But the country as a whole will have increased 7.6%.  Minnesota has to keep pace with the country as a whole to keep its 8th seat.

It's interesting that so many seats will come down to the wire.  How much have projections changed since the 2010 census?  I'm surprised to see that AZ-10 isn't even on the short list?  Is AL-07 still in danger?
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #3 on: December 02, 2013, 12:37:19 pm »

Can most of the pre-2020 changes be considered sure things?  If growth fell off so that the decade ended with projected 2019 populations instead of projected 2020 populations, we would still have the new FL, VA and CO seats and the first 2 new TX seats?  In your mind are any of these in doubt?
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #4 on: December 30, 2013, 10:35:40 am »

Does this suggest any changes in predicted apportionment for 2021?  It certainly looks like CO-08 became more likely and holding WV-03 became less likely.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #5 on: December 30, 2013, 12:57:27 pm »

2012 to 2013 growth population:



MA really sticks out.  Also MN and NM.  Why would NM be lagging?

Over average growth: 279
Under average growth: 248
On par growth: 11
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #6 on: April 19, 2019, 02:04:10 pm »

Boston really sticks out here as following a different trend than other old Northern cities. 
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