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  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderator: muon2)
  Census population estimates 2011-2019 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Census population estimates 2011-2019  (Read 92655 times)
True Federalist
Ernest
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« on: November 23, 2013, 01:55:23 pm »

I predict that the population on July 1, 2014 will be 35,274 if one doesn't count the zombies. Wink Would zombies count as three-fifths of a person for apportionment purposes?
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True Federalist
Ernest
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« Reply #1 on: November 29, 2013, 12:08:00 am »

314,159,265

More or less.

Though I fear that may be an irrational answer.


It's ironic that I got your joke on a day I'm going to be eating pie.


I had cornbread today.  It was good, but the pie was transcendental.
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True Federalist
Ernest
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« Reply #2 on: December 30, 2013, 12:38:26 pm »

Based on these estimates, if we were to reapportion today based on them the bubble seats would be:

#431 WA-10
#432 MI-14
#433 PA-18
#434 CA-53
#435 NC-14

#436 TX-37
#437 MN-8
#438 VA-12
#439 MT-2
#440 OR-6
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True Federalist
Ernest
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« Reply #3 on: December 30, 2013, 12:50:47 pm »

Also for those of you who advocate the cube root apportionment method.  The 2013 estimates gives a House of 680 seats, up 5 from the 2010 census.  Changes in the House from 2010 would be California gains a 83rd seat, Florida gains a 42nd seat, Georgia gains a 22nd seat, Idaho gains a 4th seat, Michigan loses its 22ns seat, Mississippi loses its 7th seat, Oregon gains its 9th seat, and Texas gains its 56th and 57th seats.

  Alabama      10
  Alaska      2
  Arizona      14
  Arkansas   6
  California   83
  Colorado      11
  Connecticut      8
  Delaware      2
  Florida         42
  Georgia         22
  Hawaii         3
  Idaho         4
  Illinois         28
  Indiana         14
  Iowa         7
  Kansas         6
  Kentucky      10
  Louisiana      10
  Maine         3
  Maryland      13
  Massachusetts   14
  Michigan         21
  Minnesota      12
  Mississippi      6
  Missouri         13
  Montana         2
  Nebraska      4
  Nevada         6
  New Hampshire   3
  New Jersey      19
  New Mexico      5
  New York      42
  North Carolina   21
  North Dakota      2
  Ohio         25
  Oklahoma      8
  Oregon         9
  Pennsylvania      28
  Rhode Island      2
  South Carolina   10
  South Dakota      2
  Tennessee      14
  Texas         57
  Utah         6
  Vermont         1
  Virginia         18
  Washington      15
  West Virginia      4
  Wisconsin      12
  Wyoming      1
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True Federalist
Ernest
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« Reply #4 on: December 30, 2013, 01:40:47 pm »

Here's my annual projection from the new estimates. I used the July 2013 estimates and the April 2010 Census base to get an annual growth rate. This correctly accounts for the 3 and a quarter year period between the Census and the estimate. I then applied the annual growth rate to the 2010 reapportionment population to get the 2020 projection. This accounts for the extra overseas population used in reapportionment but not for redistricting. Ten years is a long stretch for a simple model like this, but here are the projected changes.

CO +1
FL +1
IL -1
MI -1
MN -1
NC +1
OH -1
PA -1
RI -1
TX +3
VA +1
WV -1

The bubble seats in this projection are based on the last five awarded and the next five in line.
The last five awarded are FL-28, VA-12, AL-7, TX-39, and NY-27 (#435).
The next five in line are CA-54, MT-2, WV-3, OR-6, MN-8.

Using a different growth model that weighted the growth from each estimate, giving a greater weight to the estimated growth rate from 2012 to 2013 than 2011 to 2012, etc.  I come up with similar values that yield the same seat changes, but a different order of the ten bubble seats.

431 FL-28
432 VA-12
433 AL-7
434 NY-27
435 TX-39

436 CA-54
437 MT-2
438 MN-8
439 OR-6
440 WV-3

BTW, krazen, why the surprise at Rhode Island losing a seat?  Given these estimates, I fail to see how Rhode Island avoids losing a seat under any reasonable model of population change.
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True Federalist
Ernest
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« Reply #5 on: December 30, 2013, 02:16:02 pm »

I merely cut and pasted his message.

In that case, since I don't have or want to be a twit, even tho I don't expect Sean to read this: Sean, why the surprise at Rhode Island losing a seat?  Given these estimates, I fail to see how Rhode Island avoids losing a seat under any reasonable model of population change.
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True Federalist
Ernest
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« Reply #6 on: August 31, 2017, 09:50:22 pm »

Here's my annual projection from the new estimates. I used the July 2016 estimates and the April 2010 Census base to get an annual growth rate. This correctly accounts for the 6 and a quarter year period between the Census and the estimate. I then applied the annual growth rate to the 2010 reapportionment population to get the 2020 projection. This accounts for the extra overseas population used in reapportionment but not for redistricting. Ten years is a long stretch for a simple model like this, but here are the projected changes.

AL -1
AZ +1
CO +1
FL +2
IL -1
MI -1
MN -1
NY -1
NC +1
OH -1
OR +1
PA -1
RI -1
TX +3
WV -1

There is only one change since my projections last year. CA stays unchanged at 53 instead of adding a seat and FL gains 2 instead of 1 up to 29. The bubble seats in this projection are based on the last five awarded and the next five in line.
The last five awarded are IL-17, TX-39, CA-53, AZ-10, and FL-29 (#435).
The next five in line are MT-2, AL-7, CA-54, VA-12, and MN-8.

An alternate projection could use just the last two years of estimates to determine the rate of growth for the rest of the decade. That model gives the same projection as the one above, with changes only in the order of the bubble seats.

I think it's fairly safe to say Harvey ended any chance of Texas gaining three seats in the next census.  Even if the disruption proves only half as bad as Katrina, there will be a lot of people who otherwise might live in Texas who won't be able to thirty-one months from now.
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True Federalist
Ernest
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« Reply #7 on: August 31, 2017, 11:26:52 pm »

The only way I could see Texas not gaining two would be if Republican xenophobia has the side effect of causing a severe undercount of Hispanics in Texas.
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True Federalist
Ernest
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« Reply #8 on: September 25, 2017, 10:39:27 pm »

I wonder if the post-Maria exodus from Puerto Rico might keep New York from losing a seat. If you take a look at the Puerto Rican demographics, a lot of the people who left were men who couldn't find work there. Now we're likely to see a lot of women and kids who can't live there as well as those displaced by lack of work. A 10% exodus is probably a bare minimum under current conditions, and many will head to New York. Probably not enuf by itself to keep the Empire State from losing another seat, but it should make it close.
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