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  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderator: muon2)
  Census population estimates 2011-2019 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Census population estimates 2011-2019  (Read 91469 times)
hopper
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« on: November 29, 2013, 07:30:47 pm »

I'd say ND, then DC, then TX, then UT, then WA, then FL. No scientific reasons, just guesses Tongue

I also wonder if Michigan's population decline has stopped, though I suspect Rhode Island's has not. I expect most New England states to have more or less minimal growth.
Michigan has lost 300 people 2011-2012 so yeah Michigan's population has bottomed out.
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hopper
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« Reply #1 on: November 29, 2013, 07:39:32 pm »
« Edited: November 29, 2013, 07:42:07 pm by hopper »

I'd say ND, then DC, then TX, then UT, then WA, then FL. No scientific reasons, just guesses Tongue

I also wonder if Michigan's population decline has stopped, though I suspect Rhode Island's has not. I expect most New England states to have more or less minimal growth.
Well Massachusetts has ranked 13th in population growth so far in 2011-2012 otherwise yes the rest of New England has grown minimally. I think Rhode Island's population decline has stopped though.

Other 2011-2012 Census findings:

Georgia has passed Michigan for 7th populous state.

Arizona has passed Indiana in Population growth to move up to the 14th most populous state.

Nebraska has passed West Virginia for 37th most populous state.

Might happen this decade:

Utah will pass Kansas in population growth

North Carolina might pass Michigan for 8th most populous state

Oklahoma might pass Oregon in population growth as the 26h most populous state.



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hopper
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« Reply #2 on: November 29, 2013, 08:01:53 pm »

New state population estimates will be released in ca. 1 month !

My prediction:

316.159.818
315,712,013

NC+1, MN-1 remains only apportionment change, until 2014 when Texas gains from Michigan.
Minnesota has already lost a US House Seat in this decade?  I thought Minnesota might stave off a lost US House Seat in this decade since it ranks 16th in population growth so far in 2011-2012. I know before the 2010 Census came out people thought Minnesota was gonna lose a House Seat to Colorado but it didn't happen. Now it looks likes it has happened. Maybe Colorado could have gained a seat from Missouri and Minnesota would have kept 8 House Seats would have been the scenario that I thought could have played out. Missouri's population growth has been miserable in 2011-2012.
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hopper
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« Reply #3 on: January 18, 2014, 01:55:24 am »

Nice to see Michigan gaining population again.
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hopper
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« Reply #4 on: December 23, 2014, 12:15:07 pm »
« Edited: December 23, 2014, 12:17:11 pm by hopper »

The 10 states with the highest numerical domestic migration losses are all Democratic states:

  -16K MA
  -18K OH
  -20K VA
  -26K CT
  -29K MI
  -32K PA
  -32K CA
  -56K NJ
  -95K IL
-154K NY
VA and OH are purple states not Dem states. MI is Dem at the Presidential Level and at the US Senate level but not so much on the US House level and the Governorship the GOP had controlled the entire decade of the 1990's and will have controlled that office for most of the 2010's till a new Governor gets elected in 2018. The GOP has controlled the State Senate since 1982.

PA is about the same as MI although it has had one Republican US Senator since 1995 except for most of 2009-2010 when the late Arlen Specter switched parties from R to D in early 2009. The GOP lost the governorship last month though.
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hopper
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« Reply #5 on: December 23, 2014, 12:34:54 pm »

AZ is in NC population growth territory. Wow!
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hopper
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« Reply #6 on: March 08, 2015, 12:46:08 am »
« Edited: March 08, 2015, 02:03:28 am by hopper »

Domestic Migration Gains 2010-2014(rounded to the nearest thousandth.)


Texas: 522,600
Florida 449.900
North Carolina 143.400
Colorado 140,100
Arizona   116,300
South Carolina 112,300
Tennessee 84,300
Washington 84,000
Oregon 58,300
Georgia 48,900

Top Domestic Migration Losses

New York -486,580
Illinois -318,987
New Jersey -204,197
California -189,282
Michigan -153,159
Ohio -122,031
Pennsylvania -89,155
Connecticut -75,852
Missouri -43,539
Kansas -40,173

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hopper
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« Reply #7 on: March 08, 2015, 01:12:43 am »

Top International Population Gains by State(2010-2014)

California 648,856
New York 485,224
Florida 467,201
Texas 343,093
New Jersey 211,165
Massachusetts 151,731
Virginia 141,687
Illinois 128,843
Maryland 118,187
Pennsylvania 118,159
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hopper
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« Reply #8 on: March 08, 2015, 01:49:29 am »
« Edited: March 08, 2015, 01:51:36 am by hopper »

Top Migration Gains(International and Domestic Combined.) (2010-2014)

Florida 917,135
Texas 905,754
California 459,574
North Carolina 233,880
Colorado 183,324
Washington 179,873
Arizona 172,848
Georgia 151,661
Virginia 145,072
South Carolina 139,545

Top Migration Losses(International and Domestic Combined.)

Illinois -190,144
Michigan -72,674
Ohio -50,959
New Mexico -18,886
Mississippi -16,999
Kansas -15,299
Wisconsin -11,288
Missouri -8,048
Connecticut -5,861
Alaska -4,700
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hopper
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« Reply #9 on: March 15, 2015, 01:40:13 am »

Top 10 Natural Population Increases(2010-2014.)

Texas 1,711,241
California 1,466,489
Florida 1,041,077
North Carolina 384,476
Georgia 382, 879
New York 345,360
Washington 319,619
Arizona 319,485
Colorado 307,291
Virginia 300,913

Top 10 Slowest Natural Population Increases(2010-2014)

West Virginia -3,850
Vermont 770
Rhode Island 2,095
Maine 2,728
New Hampshire 10,296
Connecticut 17,332
Wyoming 19,795
New Mexico 20,622
Alaska 22,876
Mississippi 23,368
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hopper
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« Reply #10 on: December 26, 2015, 12:11:46 am »
« Edited: December 26, 2015, 12:14:27 am by hopper »


States with some uncertainty are in red.



Minnesota could still avoid the loss of a district. It added 186K in the first 5.25 years, and is projected to add 173K more. If it could add another 54K it could keep the 7th seat.. However, Minnesota has had a slower growth the last couple of years.

New York could keep its 26th seat, but its growth has been declining the last couple of years.


Virginia is just short of the projected population for a 12th district. But its growth has been tapering off. If it doesn't add a district, the other districts will continue to be sucked into NOVA. Othewise a 4th district in the NOVA area would push the other districts back some.

Yeah I thought the battle between losing a seat would be between New York and Minnesota but it looks like they are both gonna lose seats.

So if Virginia doesn't gain a seat who loses in redistricting? Comstock or Wittman on the Republican Side or maybe Conolly's district turns into a swing seat again? I was looking at the current Virginia Congressional Map and it doesn't look like Brat will be redistricted out. His district is to far off the Washington DC path. Beyer's district is too D for him to be redistricted out.
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hopper
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« Reply #11 on: January 30, 2016, 07:59:06 pm »
« Edited: January 30, 2016, 08:12:09 pm by hopper »

In addition to FL breaking 20 million, let's see how my estimates turned out:



AZ will overtake MA. TRUE

TN could overtake IN, but probably not this year but next. TRUE (next year)

SC will overtake AL. TRUE


MS and AR might break 3 Mio. people for the first time (but it's more likely that UT does before them). Semi-true: MS and AR did not break 3 million, but UT overtook them with 2.996 million and definitely is above 3 million already.

NH could pass ME. TRUE

Quote
Yes NH passed ME.

Other states that can pass each other in population:

Colorado should pass Minnesota in population next year for the 21st largest state in population.

AR will come close to passing MS in population next year but I think will just miss.

On a side note I wonder how much population is Illinois's is gonna lose given they lost 23,000 people last year in natural population in the last 2 census cycles going from 12.859 million people  this year to 12.882 people last year and from 12.889 people from the year before in 2013. Illinois is now back to the population that it had in 2011 with 12.681 million people.

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hopper
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« Reply #12 on: December 24, 2016, 03:21:17 am »

ND down to 0.1% growth, from 2.3% in the previous year.

Shocked
ND lost 4,700 people in terms of migration(international and domestic combined) from 2015-2016.
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hopper
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« Reply #13 on: December 24, 2016, 03:28:54 am »
« Edited: December 24, 2016, 03:31:19 am by hopper »

NY losing population? Sad!

Any reason why, though?

Here are the relevant components:
Births +237K
Deaths -161K
Natural increase +76K

International migration +118K
Domestic migration -191K
Net migration -73K

Total population change -2K

Note that's the sum of natural change and migration is a 3K increase not the -2K decrease that's being reported. According to the CB the change "includes a residual. This residual represents the change in population that cannot be attributed to any specific demographic component. See Population Estimates Terms and Definitions at http://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/about/glossary.html."

In any case the largest factor in the decline in NY is the net migration to other states.

International Immigration was enough from 2010/2011-2013/2014 of Census Periods to offset Domestic Migration Losses during that time period. However in both Census Periods of 2014/2015 and 2015/2016  International Migration was not enough to offset Domestic Migration during that time period.
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hopper
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« Reply #14 on: December 24, 2016, 12:38:31 pm »

States that passed each other in the population rankings in 2016:

Tennessee passed Indiana for 16th most populous state

Colorado passed Minnesota for 21st most populous state

Utah passed Mississippi for 31st most populous state

Nevada passed Kansas for most 34 most populous state(I think that happened this year.)
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hopper
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« Reply #15 on: December 24, 2016, 12:57:21 pm »

Surprised that PA might overtake IL. Is all this growth in urban areas?
PA lost 7,700 people in terms of population overall (taking into account international and domestic migration, births, deaths) and Illinois lost 37,5000 in terms of population overall in the 2015-2016 Census Period.
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hopper
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« Reply #16 on: February 18, 2017, 11:45:50 pm »

AL = Loser; Montgomery and Birmingham shrinking
AZ = Winner; Area around Phoenix exploding
CA = Winner; Mexicans entering state
CO = Winner
FL = Winner; Cubans + Old people moving to state
GA = Winner; Atlanta growing
IL = Loser; R.I.P. Chicago
MA = Loser; Boston shrinking
MI = Loser; R.I.P. Detroit
MO = Loser; R.I.P. St. Louis
NV = Winner; Las Vegas exploding
NY = Loser; people getting the heck out
etc.
No the Hispanic Population Boom in CA was from 1970-2010.
MA-Boston is growing by the way. Its Western Massachusetts that's not gaining much population or maybe losing population.
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