Australia 1983: Hayden remains Labor leader

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Let's say Hayden doesn't resign as Labor leader, and miraculously survives any challenges against him. Considering that the Liberals managed to hold Flinders in a late 1982 by-election, in conjunction with Hayden not being as effective a leader as Hawke was, I think the winner would have had a slim margin overall.

Assuming Fraser still called an early 1983 election, I'd have to go with a tiny Labor majority, winning about 63-66 of the seats, and the Liberals holding Flinders, although Labor would retain Lowe, a seat they gained in another 1982 by-election.

[RogueBeaver]

They'd probably try and pressure him out, plus the impetus for economic reform won't be as strong. Would Hawke and Keating really sit down and shut up about leadership? I highly doubt it myself? Heck, Willis might be Treasurer instead of Keating.

On the campaign: Labor wins, the economy's a complete sh**thole and Fraser was losing it a bit by that point ("money under the bed" and Red Scares).

Liberal leadership: Does Fraser even resign? Yes he lost but not by much. If the Liberals are smart he'll take the hint and get out, though I'm sure Peacock still wins the leadership.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

They'd probably try and pressure him out, plus the impetus for economic reform won't be as strong. Would Hawke and Keating really sit down and shut up about leadership? I highly doubt it myself? Heck, Willis might be Treasurer instead of Keating.

On the campaign: Labor wins, the economy's a complete sh**thole and Fraser was losing it a bit by that point ("money under the bed" and Red Scares).

Liberal leadership: Does Fraser even resign? Yes he lost but not by much. If the Liberals are smart he'll take the hint and get out, though I'm sure Peacock still wins the leadership.

I think Fraser would resign from the leadership in this scenario, his time had passed, and to stay on would be very arrogant. Peacock would still become leader, can't see anyone else as leader at this point of time.

[RogueBeaver]

OK, but my other questions?

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

OK, but my other questions?

My bad, I'll answer them now.

Keating may or may not have been appointed Treasurer, if he wasn't when the government came into power, he may have been at a later date, assuming Labor stay in power for as long as they did IRL. I still think Hawke would have kept up his ambitions to lead the party, could see him be a minister in the Hayden Government though, perhaps Minister for Trade. Could definitely see Keating being leader of Labor in the 1990s, though, like he was IRL.

Regarding economic reform, considering that Hayden wasn't as dedicated to it as Hawke was, but still in the modern ALP that Whitlam began, I think Labor would have gone in that direction, although not as aggressively as Hawke and Keating did. For example, the floating of the Australian dollar in 1983 might have been done later on.

P.S. Sorry for the late reply.

[Smid]

George Megalogenis recently published The Australian Moment . On the chapter on 1983, he writes...

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[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

George Megalogenis recently published The Australian Moment . On the chapter on 1983, he writes...

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Thanks for the article Smid, was an insightful read, and I had a feeling Labor would have won with Hayden as leader.

[Smid]

It's a good book. Glosses over Costello's surpluses, so I found it with a distinct (but slight) Labor bias, but a good read nonetheless.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

It's a good book. Glosses over Costello's surpluses, so I found it with a distinct (but slight) Labor bias, but a good read nonetheless.

If I ever read it myself, I'll let you know what I think. Sounds like a good read!

[RogueBeaver]

In this scenario I think Keating becomes PM earlier... say Hayden retires after a decade as Labor leader and 2 terms in the Lodge come 1988. Then Keating gets his dream scenario of becoming PM that year.

On the Coalition side IMO it depends how reformist Hayden is. The election is probably in 1985-6 instead of 1984 since Hayden won't be nearly as popular as Hawke IRL, which means a stronger Labor majority. Unless Peacock or Howard get hit by the proverbial bus there will still be civil war between their supporters.