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  Can we hone in on the "tipping point" for Florida?
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Author Topic: Can we hone in on the "tipping point" for Florida?  (Read 2594 times)
sg0508
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« on: December 28, 2012, 11:13:34 am »

Next to NC, many pundits and pollwatchers thought FL was the next likeliest pickup for Romney from the battlegrounds.  I had a feeling given the GOP's alienation of hispanics and youth voters (yet again) that FL would still tilt to the Democrats on Election Night.

Was there one issue that really made the difference? FL is a very tough state to figure out given that there are many different political parts of FL and because the demographics of the state change so quickly.
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Vosem
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« Reply #1 on: December 28, 2012, 01:56:01 pm »

Cubans swung Democratic, as their voting patterns are becoming more similar to other urban groups and self-deportation rhetoric wasn't appreciated. It still leans R; we must remember Obama won nationally by 4 points but Florida by just 1, which makes it an R+3 state. In 2008 it was R+4; in 2004 it was R+2; in 2000 it roughly corresponded to the nation (rounds to R+0).

Florida's demographics, I thought were remaining pretty constant; it's just that the various groups are slowly shifting allegiances over time, making them 'difficult' to figure out.
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Snowstalker's Last Stand
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« Reply #2 on: December 28, 2012, 08:12:03 pm »

Romney utterly failed at courting the Latino vote; by forcing himself right on immigration (remember, Gingrich/Perry/Santorum were all more moderate on the issue in the primaries and IMO would have done better with Latinos), he alienated voters in the general election (did the Romney campaign somehow expect the Obama camp to just ignore the primaries? Tongue). Given how close Florida was, the Paul Ryan pick and the resulting focus on Medicare may well have been the tipping point.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #3 on: December 29, 2012, 07:25:16 am »

You know, working on California for the 100k districts project brought home the point that - at least there; not in Rubio's election, for sure! - the spectacular collapse among those minority groups where Republicans still enjoyed a sizable vote: Cubans, Alaska Natives, Vietnamese, other Asians and Mexicans to a lesser degree (but they're much larger groups) was really already apparent in 2010, but not remarked on at the time. It's a well-deserved and indeed expectable consequence of Tea Party rhetoric; self-deportation, birtherism, the AZ law, you name it. The Dem swing in NE Jersey is probably due to that rather than Sandy as well. And I wonder if Romney's loss can be pinpointed on this factor alone; certainly his failure to retake Florida can.
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Snowstalker's Last Stand
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« Reply #4 on: December 29, 2012, 03:41:21 pm »

New Jersey, especially by the Hudson, is indeed very diverse. The areas that swung/trended Romney were the mountainous northwestern counties which are very white and quite wealthy (NY exurbs). However, the rest of Jersey is a very different beast from the Catskills (and Connecticut, which is even richer and much whiter than Jersey)

Sandy had to have been a factor in New Jersey, given that Obama also had swings in the Jersey Shore (which is traditionally trashy rich white people Tongue), but Hudson County basically represents everything the GOP has collapsed with; Latinos (including now Cubans; my hometown of Union City is also known as "Havana on the Hudson" and votes overwhelmingly Democratic) and Asians, the group which the GOP could probably pick up (see what Harper did) but is doing a very good job at pissing off. Bob Menendez, who was the mayor of Union City, did a little worse than Obama with wealthy whites but even better with Latinos.

I'd be interested in seeing an exit poll of the 2009 gubernatorial race. Obviously Christie won a lot of white Obama voters, but he had to have done much better than Romney with Latinos, Asians, and blacks (NJ also has a fairly high black population which vote about how you would expect).
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memphis
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« Reply #5 on: January 01, 2013, 03:34:53 pm »

Cubans swung Democratic, as their voting patterns are becoming more similar to other urban groups and self-deportation rhetoric wasn't appreciated. It still leans R; we must remember Obama won nationally by 4 points but Florida by just 1, which makes it an R+3 state. In 2008 it was R+4; in 2004 it was R+2; in 2000 it roughly corresponded to the nation (rounds to R+0).

Florida's demographics, I thought were remaining pretty constant; it's just that the various groups are slowly shifting allegiances over time, making them 'difficult' to figure out.
^^^^^^^
But Dems need to keep their eye on Palm Beach, where things are moving the other way.
Winning margin (in percent rounded to nearest whole number) for Dems
Miami-Dade
2000 6
2004 6
2008 16
2012 24

Palm Beach
2000 27
2004 21
2008 23
2012 17
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Devils30
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« Reply #6 on: January 02, 2013, 01:25:24 am »

I don't think Dems can get much worse in Palm Beach. The demographics there show high Hispanic growth and someone like Hillary or Cuomo can very likely get back above 60%. The reason the trend looks bad there is because Lieberman helped a lot in 2000 (Gore did better than Clinton ever did). Obama struggled with white upper middle class types here and other places relative to 2008. This tax deal shouldnt hurt him one bit with this group.
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Snowstalker's Last Stand
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« Reply #7 on: January 03, 2013, 10:03:56 pm »

Here's a fun one: Had Mitt Romney not put on brownface for the Univision interview, would he have carried Florida? Tongue
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memphis
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« Reply #8 on: January 04, 2013, 12:30:53 am »

I don't think Dems can get much worse in Palm Beach. The demographics there show high Hispanic growth and someone like Hillary or Cuomo can very likely get back above 60%. The reason the trend looks bad there is because Lieberman helped a lot in 2000 (Gore did better than Clinton ever did). Obama struggled with white upper middle class types here and other places relative to 2008. This tax deal shouldnt hurt him one bit with this group.
Even disregarding 2000 where Gore was at +14 over his national total in Palm Beach, Kerry was also at +12, while Obama '08 and '12 was at +7. The last Democratic candidate to fare worse relatively in Palm Beach was Dukakis who managed to do worse in PB than he did nationally. But so did Mondale. And every other Democratic candidate before him going back into time immemorial. Just seems like we may be on the other side of the parabola now.
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Devils30
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« Reply #9 on: January 04, 2013, 01:27:18 am »

PB County is 60% white in the 2010 census and includes a large northeastern and Jewish population. Bottom line is that a Democrat is much more likely to make it into the mid 60s than fall to the low 50s.
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memphis
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« Reply #10 on: January 04, 2013, 10:17:47 am »

PB County is 60% white in the 2010 census and includes a large northeastern and Jewish population. Bottom line is that a Democrat is much more likely to make it into the mid 60s than fall to the low 50s.
Really? Cause in an election he won nationally by four points, Obama only scored 58 in PB. Elasticity is not uniform, granted, but it does suggest that in a less favorable national climate, he would have been in the mid '50s. And that's an enormous problem for the Democrats.
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CountryClassSF
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« Reply #11 on: January 25, 2013, 04:32:12 pm »

In my opinion, Romney would have carried Florida had he spent more time getting out the vote there.  

From post-election news reports, we know that the flawed polling model that the Romney team used had him easily carrying FL, VA, and NC -- Obama's campaign did some aggressive GOTV in the last week or so that appeared to carry him to the top. IIRC, the polls in FL were roughly 50-50 and Nate Silver's page changed the trend from R to D the day before the election.

Despite my frustration with other conservatives being in poll denial mode most of the cycle, I fully expected an easy NC win and a 3-4 point FL win.

What threw me off in FL was I assumed that Romney would not do worse than McCain in Dade and Broward, combined with a higher white turnout on the panhandle.

Had Romney so much as matched McCain in Dade or Broward, or quite honestly, even in forms of turnout in the more conservative areas of the state, he would have won the state by atleast a point or two.
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Siloch
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« Reply #12 on: January 25, 2013, 09:18:37 pm »

What about Hurricane Sandy as a factor. Florida is a big hurricane state, they saw Obama do good in NJ, just enough FL swing voters warmed to him.
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DS0816
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« Reply #13 on: March 16, 2013, 03:35:23 am »

Cubans swung Democratic, as their voting patterns are becoming more similar to other urban groups and self-deportation rhetoric wasn’t appreciated. It still leans R; we must remember Obama won nationally by 4 points but Florida by just 1, which makes it an R+3 state. In 2008 it was R+4; in 2004 it was R+2; in 2000 it roughly corresponded to the nation (rounds to R+0).

Florida’s demographics, I thought were remaining pretty constant; it’s just that the various groups are slowly shifting allegiances over time, making them ‘difficult’ to figure out.
^^^^^^^
But Dems need to keep their eye on Palm Beach, where things are moving the other way.
Winning margin (in percent rounded to nearest whole number) for Dems
Miami-Dade
2000 6
2004 6
2008 16
2012 24

Palm Beach
2000 27
2004 21
2008 23
2012 17

Republicans are in trouble in Duval County (Jacksonville).

Since after 2000, it has trended away from the party.

DUVAL COUNTY VS. FLORIDA
2000: R+16.74
2004: R+11.15
2008: R+4.71
2012: R+4.48

You mentioned Democrats and Palm Beach County (West Palm Beach). It too has trended away from the party.

PALM BEACH COUNTY COUNTY VS. FLORIDA
2000: D+26.97
2004: D+26.31
2008: D+20.05
2012: D+16.15


Some of the counties in Florida favoring one party over the other have been trended away from preferred party. (That’s relative to the statewide outcome.) Some have been see-sawing, with not too much difference, but notable ones (in some cases).

I did a little research. (Hopefully my numbers are correct.)

The Top 15 populous counties in Florida are:

1. Miami-Dade County (Miami)
2. Broward County (Fort Lauderdale)
3. Palm Beach County (West Palm Beach)
4. Hillsborough County (Tampa)
5. Orange County (Orange)
6. Pinellas County (Clearwater)
7. Duval County (Jacksonville)
8. Lee County (Fort Myers)
9. Polk County (Bartow)
10. Brevard County (Titusville)
11. Volusia County (DeLand)
12. Pasco County (Dade)
13. Seminole County (Sanford)
14. Sarasota County (Sarasota)
15. Marion County (Ocala)

Here are the tendlines for rest of the Top 15 counties since 2000:

MIAMI-DADE COUNTY VS. FLORIDA
2000: D+6.29
2004: D+11.29
2008: D+31.87
2012: D+34.01

BROWARD COUNTY VS. FLORIDA
2000: D+36.49
2004: D+26.31
2008: D+31.87
2012: D+34.01

HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY VS. FLORIDA
2000: R+3.10
2004: R+1.77
2008: D+4.30
2012: D+5.79

ORANGE COUNTY VS. FLORIDA
2000: D+2.05
2004: D+5.22
2008: D+15.81
2012: D+17.32

PINELLAS COUNTY VS. FLORIDA
2000: D+3.68
2004: D+4.96
2008: D+5.41
2012: D+4.75

LEE VS. FLORIDA
2000: R+17.66
2004: R+15.90
2008: R+14.14
2012: R+17.39

POLK COUNTY VS. FLORIDA
2000: R+8.95
2004: R+12.80
2008: R+8.92
2012: R+7.31

BREVARD COUNTY VS. FLORIDA
2000: R+8.19
2004: R+11.10
2008: R+14.18
2012: R+13.56

VOLUSIA VS. FLORIDA
2000: D+8.15
2004: D+6.58
2008: D+2.85
2012: R+2.04

SEMINOLE COUNTY VS. FLORIDA
2000: R+12.01
2004: R+11.75
2008: R+5.59
2012: R+7.33

SARASOTA COUNTY VS. FLORIDA
2000: R+6.35
2004: R+3.30
2008: R+2.91
2012: R+8.28

MARION COUNTY VS. FLORIDA
2000: R+8.15
2004: R+12.18
2008: R+14.37
2012: R+17.09


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barfbag
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« Reply #14 on: June 24, 2013, 08:49:02 pm »

Low Republican turnout in FL and across the nation hurt Romney. There were about 4 million Republicans who stayed home on election day and the bigger the state, the more Romney would've been hurt. It cost him FL, OH, and VA at the very least.
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Franknburger
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« Reply #15 on: June 25, 2013, 02:26:07 am »

Aside from the Latino vote, there is another pattern that is often overlooked. According to the exit polls, white seniors, while still overwhelmingly voting Republican, have hardly trended Romney (R +18 in 2008, R + 22 in 2012). In some parts of the US, especially New England and NYC, they even swung  D (NY: D+4).
This may to some extent be issue-related (Medicare). However, I also assume a (temporary) demographic pattern, as the "JFK generation", i.e. those born in the late 1930's / early 1940s, is gaining increasing weight among seniors.

At first sight, the D trend/swing among white seniors has not become apparent in the 2012 Florida exit polls. Overall, seniors in Florida swung 5% towards Romney (+11 in Arizona, for comparison). Unfortunately, I have not yet found any split-up by age and race, but I would assume that it is rather Hispanic (Cuban) than white seniors accounting for that Florida swing.

In any case, if the pro-Dem trend among North-Eastern white seniors should make it down to Florida, Republicans have one more demographic problem to deal with in that state...
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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #16 on: July 07, 2013, 05:46:01 pm »

This is exactly the reason why:

HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY VS. FLORIDA
2000: R+3.10
2004: R+1.77
2008: D+4.30
2012: D+5.79

ORANGE COUNTY VS. FLORIDA
2000: D+2.05
2004: D+5.22
2008: D+15.81
2012: D+17.32

This would be a huge problem for Republicans if this trend continues, since both counties are getting pretty populated.  It would mean Democrats have a 5 large county base when you include the South Florida counties, instead of just the three 3 down there.

Florida is probably not getting as democratic as some other states like Virginia and Colorado though.  So it will probably remain super-competitive for a long time.
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barfbag
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« Reply #17 on: July 07, 2013, 09:50:41 pm »

This is exactly the reason why:

HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY VS. FLORIDA
2000: R+3.10
2004: R+1.77
2008: D+4.30
2012: D+5.79

ORANGE COUNTY VS. FLORIDA
2000: D+2.05
2004: D+5.22
2008: D+15.81
2012: D+17.32

This would be a huge problem for Republicans if this trend continues, since both counties are getting pretty populated.  It would mean Democrats have a 5 large county base when you include the South Florida counties, instead of just the three 3 down there.

Florida is probably not getting as democratic as some other states like Virginia and Colorado though.  So it will probably remain super-competitive for a long time.

The whole state: estimates

2000 even
2004 +3
2008 +5
2012 +3

1976 was the last time Florida was to the left of the popular vote and before that 1948. It's not as red as it was in the 70's and 80's but no states are due to the huge landslides Republicans saw in those decades.
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