CountryClassSF
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,530
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« on: January 25, 2013, 04:32:12 PM » |
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In my opinion, Romney would have carried Florida had he spent more time getting out the vote there.
From post-election news reports, we know that the flawed polling model that the Romney team used had him easily carrying FL, VA, and NC -- Obama's campaign did some aggressive GOTV in the last week or so that appeared to carry him to the top. IIRC, the polls in FL were roughly 50-50 and Nate Silver's page changed the trend from R to D the day before the election.
Despite my frustration with other conservatives being in poll denial mode most of the cycle, I fully expected an easy NC win and a 3-4 point FL win.
What threw me off in FL was I assumed that Romney would not do worse than McCain in Dade and Broward, combined with a higher white turnout on the panhandle.
Had Romney so much as matched McCain in Dade or Broward, or quite honestly, even in forms of turnout in the more conservative areas of the state, he would have won the state by atleast a point or two.
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