Can we hone in on the "tipping point" for Florida?

[memphis]

Cubans swung Democratic, as their voting patterns are becoming more similar to other urban groups and self-deportation rhetoric wasn't appreciated. It still leans R; we must remember Obama won nationally by 4 points but Florida by just 1, which makes it an R+3 state. In 2008 it was R+4; in 2004 it was R+2; in 2000 it roughly corresponded to the nation (rounds to R+0).

Florida's demographics, I thought were remaining pretty constant; it's just that the various groups are slowly shifting allegiances over time, making them 'difficult' to figure out.

^^^^^^^
But Dems need to keep their eye on Palm Beach, where things are moving the other way.
Winning margin (in percent rounded to nearest whole number) for Dems
Miami-Dade
2000 6
2004 6
2008 16
2012 24

Palm Beach
2000 27
2004 21
2008 23
2012 17

[memphis]

I don't think Dems can get much worse in Palm Beach. The demographics there show high Hispanic growth and someone like Hillary or Cuomo can very likely get back above 60%. The reason the trend looks bad there is because Lieberman helped a lot in 2000 (Gore did better than Clinton ever did). Obama struggled with white upper middle class types here and other places relative to 2008. This tax deal shouldnt hurt him one bit with this group.

Even disregarding 2000 where Gore was at +14 over his national total in Palm Beach, Kerry was also at +12, while Obama '08 and '12 was at +7. The last Democratic candidate to fare worse relatively in Palm Beach was Dukakis who managed to do worse in PB than he did nationally. But so did Mondale. And every other Democratic candidate before him going back into time immemorial. Just seems like we may be on the other side of the parabola now.

[memphis]

PB County is 60% white in the 2010 census and includes a large northeastern and Jewish population. Bottom line is that a Democrat is much more likely to make it into the mid 60s than fall to the low 50s.

Really? Cause in an election he won nationally by four points, Obama only scored 58 in PB. Elasticity is not uniform, granted, but it does suggest that in a less favorable national climate, he would have been in the mid '50s. And that's an enormous problem for the Democrats.