Newspaper Headline: Day after election 2016

[NHI]

November 9, 2016, 3:19pm
Electoral changes cost Clinton election.

Just four years ago with Obama's defeat of Mitt Romney it appeared as if the GOP was at an electoral disadvantage.  Even if Mitt Romney had won the popular vote by around two points, he could have still lost the electoral college.  Now thanks to changes by state legislators in key battleground states just a few years ago, the electoral/popular vote split is a reality.  However the roles are reversed, with the Democrats winning by five points in the popular vote yet still narrowly losing the electoral college.



The above map for 2016 looks drastically different than the one from 2012, just one election prior.  And it's not just due to which states voted for who.  A whopping five states adopted the method of assigning electoral votes based on congressional district.  These changes place Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Virginia all in the same category as Maine and Nebraska.  The difference is that all of these additional states have many more congressional districts and they aren't as uniform as those in Maine or Nebraska.  The changes in the allocation of votes in these five states changes what would have been a 294-234 victory for the Democratic ticket of Hillary Clinton and Maria Cantwell into a 272-266 win for Republican ticket Chris Christie and Susana Martinez.

The selection of Maria Cantwell which seemed to be a strong coalition at the time, proved to cost Clinton a possible victory as well.  In the Vice Presidential debate allowed Susana Martinez to paint Maria Cantwell as out of touch with some of the non-coastal Western states.  Had Clinton been able to hold onto Nevada or Colorado, she would have won the election.  Chris Christie's massive play for Iowa proved vital to his victory as well; with Clinton's plays for Kentucky and Tennessee falling short.  The number of close states this election doesn't tell the whole story of just how polarized the country has become.  While there were more states closer this election, there were also many states with over 60% of the vote going to one candidate.  In addition, the Urban/Rural divide continues to grow. The impact of third-party candidate Gary Johnson proved to be stronger than the previous 2012 election thanks to a stronger grassroots campaign and proved to help Christie's dominance in some vital Western states.  Below is a chart of how close states were.

State	% GOP
Idaho	63.12%
Oklahoma	62.97%
Alabama	62.45%
South Dakota	62.14%
Utah	61.12%
Wyoming	60.77%
Arizona	60.08%
Nebraska	59.73%
North Dakota	58.63%
South Carolina	58.49%
Georgia	58.28%
Kansas	58.11%
Louisiana	57.24%
Mississippi	56.22%
Texas	56.13%
Alaska	55.72%
West Virginia	55.53%
Montana	55.19%
Florida	52.37%
Tennessee	50.89%
New Mexico	50.69%
Kentucky	49.78%
North Carolina	49.40%
Nevada	49.33%
Iowa	49.22%
Arkansas	48.91%
Colorado	48.37%
Virginia	48.00%
Wisconsin	47.74%
New Hampshire	47.66%
Pennsylvania	47.54%
Indiana	47.32%
Missouri	47.18%
Ohio	46.91%
Michigan	46.82%
New Jersey	46.19%
Maine	44.43%
Connecticut	43.18%
Oregon	41.87%
Minnesota	40.01%
California	38.78%
Rhode Island	38.58%
Washington	37.99%
Illinois	37.71%
New York	37.38%
Maryland	37.29%
Massachusetts	36.87%
Delaware	36.08%
Vermont	35.91%
Hawaii	32.97%
District Of Columbia	11.26%

               

There are many things that stand out with these results.  For instance, Clinton carried Arkansas whilst Christie carried Colorado despite Christie getting a larger percentage of the vote in Arkansas.  This comes from the strength third-party Candidate had in Colorado while not in Arkansas.  Also of note are that each candidate won five states with under 50% of the vote.  For Christie: Kentucky, North Carolina, Nevada, Iowa, and North Carolina.  For Clinton: Ohio, Missouri, Indiana, Pennsylvania, and Arkansas.  Gary Johnson campaigned extensively in around half of these states, helping to push some of them below the threshold.  Overall the popular vote percentage seems to be heading in the direction of 50% for Clinton, 45% for Christie, and 5% for Gary Johnson.  Christie only got over 50% of the vote in 21 states; Clinton only got over 50% of the vote in 19 states and the District of Columbia.  This makes 26 states for Christie and 24 states for Clinton along with the District of Columbia.  Yet in five of the 24 states Clinton carried, Christie received electoral votes.

In Virginia and Wisconsin, where Clinton carried over 50% of the vote, she won 7/13 and 6/10 electoral votes respectively.  However in Michigan where she also carried over 50% of the vote she carried a mere 7/16 electoral votes.  In Ohio and Pennsylvania where she won with less than 50% of the vote she won 10/18 and 9/20 electoral votes respectively.  What happened with Michigan and Pennsylvania?  The effects of gerrymandered done by Republican legislators in those states proved successful as the layout of congressional districts favoured the Republican ticket.  These districts did take quite a while to account for with many proving very close, although none were won without 50% of the vote.  Still, with the election as close as it was, Clinton did not concede until around 9am this morning when some close districts in Pennsylvania were finally called.

Congressional districts weren't only important for the Presidential election of course.  Republicans have maintained the House thanks to gerrymandering by state legislators remaining strong.  This election looks to be yet a third cycle in a row of Democrats winning the popular vote for the House and still remaining unable to regain control of the chamber.  Meanwhile there was a transfer of power in the other chamber of Congress.  Republicans managed to make some vital pick-ups placing them at 50 seats in the chamber.  This will allow Vice President-elect Susana Martinez to be the deciding vote for any split decisions.  Republicans also remain in control of a majority of Governorships and vital state legislatures as well.  Stay tuned for future articles on what all of this means for the Democratic Party.

Wow! How did you create the map?

[NHI]

MSPaint

Got it. Thanks.