Mid-Ulster by-election

[Andrea]

Presumably because there's no Northern Ireland branch of Labour but there is a general "Abroad" branch.

It exists now.
http://www.labourpartyni.org/party-officers-and-executive

At the time of 2010 Labour leadership election, it had 275 members. 178 voted: David Miliband 61 votes, Andy Burnham 49, Ed Miliband 48, Diane Abbott 13, Ed Balls 7

[Famous Mortimer]

I know it's hardly a concern for them at the moment, but that's got me curious: what's the Alliance and their base's reaction to the Liberals since the election been?

Naomi Long doesn't take the LibDem whip. She votes against the government more often than not.

[Leftbehind]

I know it's hardly a concern for them at the moment, but that's got me curious: what's the Alliance and their base's reaction to the Liberals since the election been?

Naomi Long doesn't take the LibDem whip. She votes against the government more often than not.

Ah, thanks.

[Nichlemn]

How do you think NI would vote if all the regional parties disbanded and the main parties ran there? If unionist = Conservative, then Conservatives would win a plurality, but it's not that simple.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That's not possible, even as a hypothetical. You would just have new 'regional' parties springing up, pretty much immediately. Though (and this is a different matter entirely) somewhere like Northern Ireland (postindustrial wreck of a regional economy, strong trade unions, etc) would be pretty Labour if it were in Great Britain and were 'normal' in all (or even most) respects.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

How do you think NI would vote if all the regional parties disbanded and the main parties ran there? If unionist = Conservative, then Conservatives would win a plurality, but it's not that simple.

Labour would win all seats except North Down and perhaps South Belfast and one or two others.

[ObserverIE]

How do you think NI would vote if all the regional parties disbanded and the main parties ran there? If unionist = Conservative, then Conservatives would win a plurality, but it's not that simple.

Labour would win all seats except North Down and perhaps South Belfast and one or two others.

That rather depends on whether the hypothetical question is:

a) how would seats with the same demographic vote in England/Scotland/Wales (or, for the sake of controversy, the Republic)?, or
b) how would the same electorate respond to a forced choice between Lab/Con/Lib Dem?

For option a), the Tories would win North Down, Strangford, Lagan Valley and probably East L/Derry and North Antrim comfortably. Foyle, Belfast North, Belfast West and Upper Bann would be safe for Labour. Belfast East and East Antrim would be Labour in normal circumstances but with the Tories having a significant presence, South Antrim would be the reverse. Belfast South would be the sort of public-sector middle-class seat, once safely Tory, that the Lib Dems would have taken from Labour in 2005 or 2010. Of the more rural seats, West Tyrone and Newry/Armagh would most likely be Labour but the rest would probably go Lib Dem (although Fermanagh/South Tyrone would be marginal between Lib Dem and Tory).

For option b), "Unionist" voters would skew strongly Tory/UKIP, "Nationalist" voters strongly Labour. (The NILP had fifty years to develop a strong presence in working-class Protestant east Ulster and largely got nowhere except one or two seats in eastern Belfast.)

[doktorb]

Whither Republic of Ireland parties standing in NI? I've often mused about FF or FG standing candidates in the North, it might not be so much of a disaster....

[minionofmidas]

a) how would seats with the same demographic vote in England/Scotland/Wales (or, for the sake of controversy, the Republic)

That's easy. Most Prots hold their nose and vote FG, with the remainder emigrating or going into terrorism. SF retains much of its support with some bleeding to FF and Labour, and SDLP voters split between FG and Labour. Bottom line, FG completely dominate and SF are solid seconds.

Now someone do a map of Britain with only the Northern Irish Parties standing.

[Famous Mortimer]

The SDLP and FF mused about teaming up several years ago. So there's that.

[Nichlemn]

a) how would seats with the same demographic vote in England/Scotland/Wales (or, for the sake of controversy, the Republic)

That's easy. Most Prots hold their nose and vote FG, with the remainder emigrating or going into terrorism. SF retains much of its support with some bleeding to FF and Labour, and SDLP voters split between FG and Labour. Bottom line, FG completely dominate and SF are solid seconds.

Now someone do a map of Britain with only the Northern Irish Parties standing.

Doesn't Sinn Fein lose most of its reason for existing in a United Ireland?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Actually no.

[Famous Mortimer]

If there were a United Ireland, Sinn Fein could enthusiastically and earnestly disassociated itself from terrorism. That would likely cause them to gain supporters.

[ObserverIE]

a) how would seats with the same demographic vote in England/Scotland/Wales (or, for the sake of controversy, the Republic)

SF retains much of its support with some bleeding to FF and Labour, and SDLP voters split between FG and Labour. Bottom line, FG completely dominate and SF are solid seconds.

I suspect most Catholics who would be inclined to vote FG currently vote Alliance. SDLP supporters might not be particularly inclined to support a Labour party run by the current ex-WP clique or a FG some of whose leading members don't seem particularly keen on an independent Irish state in the first place. The bulk would probably settle for FF as the least worst option.

[Јas]

Labour NI not allowed to stand candidates - slugger o'toole

[YL]

This will finally take place on Thursday 7 March.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyways, there's to be a single Unionist candidate (Nigel Lutton¹) as the DUP and UUP have done a rather tawdry² sectarian deal ala the FST failure of 2010 (and also routine practice before Good Friday 1998). As a result, the UUP have lost another MLA; John McCallister of South Down who lost his post as Deputy Leader last year for saying this sort of sectarian dickwaving was a bit sh!te.

<sub>1. Son of an IRA victim.
2. And completely pointless: McGuinness polled an absolute majority in 2010 and Sinn Fein (with 49%) led a hypothetically combined DUP/UUP by over 20pts in the 2011 elections.</sub>

[Filuwaúrdjan]

To be less coy: the next MP for Mid Ulster will be Francie Molloy. Back in 2007 Francie Molloy was named in the Commons by David Simpson as a suspect in the murder of one Eric Lutton in 1979.

[YL]

There are a number of possible answers to the question "what is the purpose of the UUP as a separate party these days?". But what I'd like to know is what the UUP leadership think the answer is.  And does it have anything in common with what they thought three years ago, or five, or maybe even one?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Basil McCrea (Lagan Valley) has gone as well.

[MaxQue]

It's me, the MLAs leaving UUP were among the sanest and more moderate unionists MLAs?
Can we expect a "left" (not left as left-wing, but left as more moderate than UUP/DUP) unionist party forming around them?

[minionofmidas]

Basil McCrea (Lagan Valley) has gone as well.

And Fred Cobain, though he wasn't reelected to the Assembly in 2011 and anyways joined the DUP.

His reasoning otoh... ‘riven with personal and policy difficulties’,  ‘politically exhausted’, ‘I don’t think they have any new ideas or big ideas‘ is spot on. That party has become entirely useless&pointless.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That's what McCrea intends to do. A sort of second coming of the UPNI, perhaps. You have to wonder what the point would be given that most of the target market now vote Alliance. But then even UPNI II would have more of a point than the UUP.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

His reasoning otoh... ‘riven with personal and policy difficulties’,  ‘politically exhausted’, ‘I don’t think they have any new ideas or big ideas‘ is spot on. That party has become entirely useless&pointless.

Basically, yep.

[minionofmidas]

That's what McCrea intends to do. A sort of second coming of the UPNI, perhaps. You have to wonder what the point would be given that most of the target market now vote Alliance.

None for Westminster, but it could work for maintaining a small caucus in the Assembly. Basically, a party for people who support Alliance's policies but will not abandon the Unionist self-designation. David McClarty was elected as an Independent on such a platform in 2011 of course, presumably he'll be McCrea's first recruit?