Mid-Ulster by-election

[Silent Hunter]

After the (initially announced in June) resignation of Martin McGuiness.

[You kip if you want to...]

SF hold, I should imagine.

[Mallory]

How much of a personal vote does McGuiness have? I reckon it's a likely SF hold too - not much room for movement between N/U since 98...

[doktorb]

Results from Mid Ulster 1997 to 2010.  The seat of the same name pre-1997 was very different so direct comparison is difficult.

[Simfan34]

Is there a Catholic Unionist Party? The UUP I suppose?

[Gary J]

There are or were a small number of Catholic Unionists. One historic example was the first Lord Chief Justice of Northern Ireland, Sir Denis Henry, who was elected Unionist MP for South Londonderry in 1916.

I presume most of the modern non-nationalist Catholics ended up in the Alliance Party. In any event they would be an insignificant factor in the electoral politics of Mid Ulster, based on the past behaviour of the constituency.

Constituency contests, in the parts of Northern Ireland where numbers of Catholics and Protestants are fairly even, can be determined by which community presents the more united front. If one side has only one significant candidate and the other two, this may ensure victory for the more united group.

[Leftbehind]

Is there a Catholic Unionist Party? The UUP I suppose?

No - and certainly not the UUP.

[MaxQue]

Is there a Catholic Unionist Party? The UUP I suppose?

No, neither there are Protestant Nationalists.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

The Belfast Telegraph did a poll last year that showed 52% of Catholics in NI actually now support remaining in the union rather than joining Ireland.  I'd think that the Alliance could be in a good position to grow - at the expense of the SDLP and UUP.

I still root for the UUP, but I almost wish it would just die off already so that a re-founded Conservative party could try to bring NI politics into some sort of non-sectarian mainstream.  It always seems odd to me that not only does NI have its own regionalist parties, but that none of the main UK parties are competitive or even run there.

[TJ in Oregon]

Do Catholics actually vote for Alliance? I thought Alliance was basically an all-Protestant (albeit not politically Protestant) party.

[doktorb]

The Belfast Telegraph did a poll last year that showed 52% of Catholics in NI actually now support remaining in the union rather than joining Ireland.  I'd think that the Alliance could be in a good position to grow - at the expense of the SDLP and UUP.

I still root for the UUP, but I almost wish it would just die off already so that a re-founded Conservative party could try to bring NI politics into some sort of non-sectarian mainstream.  It always seems odd to me that not only does NI have its own regionalist parties, but that none of the main UK parties are competitive or even run there.

There have been sporadic attempts to get the mainland parties standing in NI but without much success. The SDLP...what's the American term we don't use....er............caucus, that's it......caucus with Labour, and the Alliance is the LibDem's sister party, so that's sort of, kind of the same thing.

When the Conservatives and UUP joined together at the 2010 election as the clumsily named "UCUNF", it was a flop.

[doktorb]

Well at least one thing is official :


"01/13

02 January 2013

Manor of Northstead

The Chancellor of the Exchequer has this day appointed James Martin Pacelli McGuinness to be Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead."



This is, in the quaint way we do things here, getting close to becoming a parliamentary convention. Gerry Adams did not apply for any position in the profit of the crown, or whatever it's called, but he was given the title anyway on the back of the resignation letter he sent in. McGuinness has followed the same route - all he did was ""resign"" (which an MP can't do) and was appointed to the position anyway.

There's no planned further resignations by SF MPs that I know of, but it seems that, in a roundabout way, they've pencilled in some amendments to our glorious unwritten constitution.

[Leftbehind]

The Belfast Telegraph did a poll last year that showed 52% of Catholics in NI actually now support remaining in the union rather than joining Ireland.  I'd think that the Alliance could be in a good position to grow - at the expense of the SDLP and UUP.

I still root for the UUP, but I almost wish it would just die off already so that a re-founded Conservative party could try to bring NI politics into some sort of non-sectarian mainstream.  It always seems odd to me that not only does NI have its own regionalist parties, but that none of the main UK parties are competitive or even run there.

I'm not so sure greater acceptance of the UK among Catholics necessarily points to ripe electoral ground for Alliance when you look at how overwhelmingly SF have usurped the SDLP as their voice. Also, as mentioned, the NI parties tend to be closely aligned to UK parties* (with the exception of SF) so that running there holds little purpose.

*Tories: unionists, Labour: SDLP & Liberals: Alliance.

[You kip if you want to...]

The Belfast Telegraph did a poll last year that showed 52% of Catholics in NI actually now support remaining in the union rather than joining Ireland.  I'd think that the Alliance could be in a good position to grow - at the expense of the SDLP and UUP.

I still root for the UUP, but I almost wish it would just die off already so that a re-founded Conservative party could try to bring NI politics into some sort of non-sectarian mainstream.  It always seems odd to me that not only does NI have its own regionalist parties, but that none of the main UK parties are competitive or even run there.

There have been sporadic attempts to get the mainland parties standing in NI but without much success. The SDLP...what's the American term we don't use....er............caucus, that's it......caucus with Labour, and the Alliance is the LibDem's sister party, so that's sort of, kind of the same thing.

When the Conservatives and UUP joined together at the 2010 election as the clumsily named "UCUNF", it was a flop.

Even then, if Labour to be in government, the SDLP would still be considered part of the opposition, right?

[doktorb]

That was certainly the case when they were in government from 1997, but something in the back of my head seems to recall they did sit with them on the backbenches whilst doing so (maybe someone can correct me)

[afleitch]

Do Catholics actually vote for Alliance? I thought Alliance was basically an all-Protestant (albeit not politically Protestant) party.

The Northern Ireland Life and Times survey in 2010 suggested that for those who declared their support for the Alliance Party in 2010,  35% were Protestant, 19% Catholic and 46% had no religion. After Sinn Fein and the SDLP, the Alliance got the most votes from Catholics, though only about 8% said they supported the party. Given Irelands STV electoral system, they probably get a significant but not a huge number of lower preference votes or tactical votes from Catholics. This is probably greater in areas where the Catholic community is particularly small enough that the Nationalist parties either don't field candidates or simply field paper candidates.

In North Down constituency for example, 12% are of a 'Catholic community background.' In 2011, the SDLP and SF combined votes in the first round for North Down was 3.7%. The Alliance got 11%. In the local elections for the North Down Council, where the Catholic community is 13%, the Nationalist vote was 1.2%. Unless Catholics by a 11-1 margin simply don't vote, then a high proportion of them probably voted for the Alliance or the case of the local elections parties such as the Greens.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Until very recently Northern Ireland was the only part of the planet that you could not be a member of the Labour Party.

[stepney]

Even then, if Labour to be in government, the SDLP would still be considered part of the opposition, right?

That was certainly the case when they were in government from 1997, but something in the back of my head seems to recall they did sit with them on the backbenches whilst doing so (maybe someone can correct me)

For the purposes of calculating the Government's majority, allocating chairmanships of committees, etc. the SDLP would be classed as an opposition party if there were a Labour Government. I understand though (someone correct me if I'm wrong) the SDLP informally, not "officially", take the Labour whip.

[Famous Mortimer]

Most Catholic unionists vote for the SDLP.

Both because Catholic unionists tend to be very soft unionists and because the SDLP are very soft nationalists.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And, of course, such people never define themselves as 'Unionist'.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Until very recently Northern Ireland was the only part of the planet that you could not be a member of the Labour Party.

Why was that?

[Leftbehind]

Presumably because it would be in direct competition with SDLP, a party Labour are largely affiliated to. 

[Famous Mortimer]

Presumably because there's no Northern Ireland branch of Labour but there is a general "Abroad" branch.

[Gary J]

The Liberal Democrats have members in Northern Ireland. In theory they could organise themselves into a local party to nominate candidates in elections. Liberal Democrat local parties are usually based on a single Parliamentary constituencies, but larger areas are possible.

If there was more than one local party in Northern Ireland, again in theory, they could organise as a "state" party. The state parties of Scotland and Wales as well as the rather shadowy Party in England (which has almost no powers compared to the English regional parties) are the components of the federal party (the one led by Nick Clegg).

In practice, Liberal Democrats in Northern Ireland tend to have dual membership in the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland. Not all Alliance Party members would be Liberal Democrats as well.

[Leftbehind]

I know it's hardly a concern for them at the moment, but that's got me curious: what's the Alliance and their base's reaction to the Liberals since the election been?