The Belfast Telegraph did a poll last year that showed 52% of Catholics in NI actually now support remaining in the union rather than joining Ireland. I'd think that the Alliance could be in a good position to grow - at the expense of the SDLP and UUP.
I still root for the UUP, but I almost wish it would just die off already so that a re-founded Conservative party could try to bring NI politics into some sort of non-sectarian mainstream. It always seems odd to me that not only does NI have its own regionalist parties, but that none of the main UK parties are competitive or even run there.
I'm not so sure greater acceptance of the UK among Catholics necessarily points to ripe electoral ground for Alliance when you look at how overwhelmingly SF have usurped the SDLP as their voice. Also, as mentioned, the NI parties tend to be closely aligned to UK parties* (with the exception of SF) so that running there holds little purpose.
*Tories: unionists, Labour: SDLP & Liberals: Alliance.
