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  Guess what, New York State has finally certified their election results
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Author Topic: Guess what, New York State has finally certified their election results  (Read 2347 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: December 31, 2012, 02:44:15 pm »

FINAL RESULTS:

4,471,871 - 63.41% - Obama
2,485,432 - 35.24% - Romney
     47,092 - Johnson
     39,856 - Stein
       8,652 - Others/Write-ins

     63,881 - BVS (Blank, Void, Scattering)

7,116,784 - Total
7,052,903 - Total (without BVS)

http://www.elections.ny.gov/NYSBOE/elections/2012/General/PresidentVicePresident12Final12312012.pdf
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Snowstalker's Last Stand
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« Reply #1 on: December 31, 2012, 02:54:54 pm »

The election is over!
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2 on: December 31, 2012, 03:01:21 pm »


Except a few write-in-votes from the states that Dave will add in the next weeks.

Anyway, regarding New York State:

Since the election night tally, Obama gained 596.000 votes, Romney gained 258.000 votes and others gained 10.000 votes - for 864.000 votes added since then overall.

Obama won those additional votes by 69-30-1.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3 on: December 31, 2012, 03:21:07 pm »

I just watched a bit from the election-night video again that I recorded on my HDD.

At 9pm, CNN had Romney ahead in the national popular vote by 51-48 (with 10% of the votes counted).

Even when Obama was declared the winner slightly after 11pm, Romney was still leading Obama in the NPV by 50-48 (with 50% of the votes counted).

And now Obama leads by 51-47, with all in.

Does this mean that the GOP candidate has to lead by at least 6% in 2016 @ 11pm to have a chance to win the NPV ?
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Antonio V
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« Reply #4 on: December 31, 2012, 03:28:38 pm »

LOL, they spared us from the shame of not having managed to certify an election within the year.

And that means VA is officially Democratic by 0.03pts! Cheesy
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Tidus
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« Reply #5 on: December 31, 2012, 03:33:13 pm »

So that means New York is the 5th state that swung Democratic. Am I Right?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6 on: December 31, 2012, 03:37:14 pm »

So that means New York is the 5th state that swung Democratic. Am I Right?

The 6th.

AK, LA, MS, MD, NJ, NY.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7 on: December 31, 2012, 03:42:05 pm »

Possible explanations for the states that swung to Obama ?

AK: probably Palin not being on the ballot anymore, homestate effect in 2008

LA & MS: white people who saw that the black Obama is not the Anti-Christ and that the world still stands after 4 years

MD: liberals turning out for the gay marriage amendment ?

NJ & NY: Sandy and the Osama-got-killed-effect
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Antonio V
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« Reply #8 on: December 31, 2012, 03:42:34 pm »

For some reason, Dave still doesn't display the official results for Massachusetts (even though he's already updated NY). Huh
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old timey villain
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« Reply #9 on: December 31, 2012, 03:43:51 pm »

Possible explanations for the states that swung to Obama ?

AK: probably Palin not being on the ballot anymore, homestate effect in 2008

LA & MS: white people who saw that the black Obama is not the Anti-Christ and that the world still stands after 4 years

MD: liberals turning out for the gay marriage amendment ?

NJ & NY: Sandy and the Osama-got-killed-effect

I think it has more to do with increasing black turnout in both states.
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Snowstalker's Last Stand
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« Reply #10 on: December 31, 2012, 03:45:33 pm »

NJ also has a lot of Latinos and Asians (the latter group had a massive swing which has gone fairly ignored in most analysis of the election). Louisiana and Mississippi's swings were in part due to Obama not shedding any more white voters than he already did, but from where the swings were in the states, were mostly thanks to heavy black turnout. Maryland can be partially explained by the demographic shifts and partly by Sandy, but I'd have expected enough rich white people to flip to Romney to prevent an outright swing to Obama. Guess not.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #11 on: December 31, 2012, 03:45:58 pm »

Possible explanations for the states that swung to Obama ?

AK: probably Palin not being on the ballot anymore, homestate effect in 2008

LA & MS: white people who saw that the black Obama is not the Anti-Christ and that the world still stands after 4 years

MD: liberals turning out for the gay marriage amendment ?

NJ & NY: Sandy and the Osama-got-killed-effect

I think it has more to do with increasing black turnout in both states.

I don't think black turnout really increased compared with the already strong 2008 black turnout.

More like blacks turning out in similar numbers like in 2008, while more whites stayed home or voted for Obama by a slightly higher margin.
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old timey villain
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« Reply #12 on: December 31, 2012, 03:47:28 pm »

For Mississippi I agree, but displaced black people are moving back to Louisiana post Katrina, which increased black turnout there this year.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #13 on: December 31, 2012, 03:49:48 pm »

Possible explanations for the states that swung to Obama ?

AK: probably Palin not being on the ballot anymore, homestate effect in 2008

LA & MS: white people who saw that the black Obama is not the Anti-Christ and that the world still stands after 4 years

MD: liberals turning out for the gay marriage amendment ?

NJ & NY: Sandy and the Osama-got-killed-effect

I think it has more to do with increasing black turnout in both states.

I don't think black turnout really increased compared with the already strong 2008 black turnout.

More like blacks turning out in similar numbers like in 2008, while more whites stayed home or voted for Obama by a slightly higher margin.

IIRC the Black birthrate is higher in the South than the white one which may explain some of this.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #14 on: December 31, 2012, 03:52:10 pm »

So is it done? The Google Docs 2012 results still shows HI as not certified
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #15 on: December 31, 2012, 04:02:28 pm »

So is it done? The Google Docs 2012 results still shows HI as not certified

Signed, sealed and delivered to the Archivist:

http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/2012-certificates/pdfs/ascertainment-hawaii.pdf
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timothyinMD
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« Reply #16 on: December 31, 2012, 04:12:10 pm »

AK: Palin fans ticked at Romney not embracing her
MS-LA: Evangelical Christians not thrilled with Romney (same reason Repub vote total dropped in Tenn, Alabama, Okla) In LA white turnout was same % as 08 but black turnout ticked up 2%

NY-NJ: You know..

MD:  Trending Democratic at a rate far above any nat'l average.  Fast growing democratic constituents, Republicans slowly trickling out

--------

In NY Obama won at least one county in each of the 40, 50, 60, 70, 80 and 90 percent ranges. Well done there
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Clamdick McClaw
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« Reply #17 on: December 31, 2012, 04:15:55 pm »

NJ, NY, and LA all swung to Obama?!  Hooray!  : D
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Snowstalker's Last Stand
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« Reply #18 on: December 31, 2012, 04:18:15 pm »

In NY Obama won at least one county in each of the 40, 50, 60, 70, 80 and 90 percent ranges. Well done there

Had Romney done slightly worse in Summit or Grand, he could have accomplished the same in Utah.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #19 on: December 31, 2012, 04:20:47 pm »


Yes, and 4 other states came within 1% of swinging to Obama: RI, AZ, CA and AL.
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old timey villain
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« Reply #20 on: December 31, 2012, 04:26:53 pm »

AK: Palin fans ticked at Romney not embracing her
MS-LA: Evangelical Christians not thrilled with Romney (same reason Repub vote total dropped in Tenn, Alabama, Okla) In LA white turnout was same % as 08 but black turnout ticked up 2%

NY-NJ: You know..

MD:  Trending Democratic at a rate far above any nat'l average.  Fast growing democratic constituents, Republicans slowly trickling out

--------

In NY Obama won at least one county in each of the 40, 50, 60, 70, 80 and 90 percent ranges. Well done there

So you're saying the Palin lovers still left in Alaska were ticked that Romney didn't embrace her, so they went and voted for Obama?? Or are you saying they just stayed home?
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timothyinMD
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« Reply #21 on: December 31, 2012, 04:34:37 pm »

They clearly stayed home.  Turnout was down big in Alaska.

Obama lost 954 votes of his 2008 performance, a negligible change
Romney lost 29,165 votes off McCain, a major drop off

Still, Romney did well in the Mat-Su region (Wasilla)

My Palin explanation is just a hypothesis, but it is plausible
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #22 on: January 01, 2013, 01:59:07 am »

And that means VA is officially Democratic by 0.03pts! Cheesy

Wikipedia now says 0.02% ... Tongue

Hopefully VA remains more DEM than the nation ...
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Snowstalker's Last Stand
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« Reply #23 on: January 01, 2013, 02:02:14 am »

The state of Robert E. Lee is now more Democratic than America as a whole? Clearly this means the Democrat Party is the party of slavery.
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Alcon
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« Reply #24 on: January 01, 2013, 04:01:20 am »

The huge swing in the Native Alaskan vote accounted for a lot of the change in Alaska.
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