The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, if the left coalition doesn't win an outright majority things could get messy very soon... It's awful how strong Sweden Democrats are polling.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Löfvén is most certainly better than the last two S leaders, but considering those were a cumpulsive liar and Mrs Scandal without any leadership skills it's hardly a competion.

I think the red-greens will outnumber the Alliance this time around, mostly because all energy and all new ideas seem to have disappeared from the Alliance. And S has learnt a bit from the failed 2010 campaign. Still I don't think they'll get their own majority, it'll be another hung parliament, and any left-wing government will have a hard time staying in power.


Btw, as we're on the topic of Swedish politics... there are rumours that Reinfeldt wants to succed Barosso as President of the EU commission in 2014, and thus will step down this year to leave way to a new M-leader and PM.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Meh, Reinfeldt is not to bad for a European rightist so I wouldn't really mind him as EC President. He can't be worse than Barroso.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Meh, Reinfeldt is not to bad for a European rightist so I wouldn't really mind him as EC President. He can't be worse than Barroso.

Are you sure? Reinfeldt would be very pro-austerity, and would probably back the Merkel economic plan 100%.

I wouldn't mind of course. I'd love to see him in that position. Not to mention it'd shake up Swedish politics.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Meh, Reinfeldt is not to bad for a European rightist so I wouldn't really mind him as EC President. He can't be worse than Barroso.

Are you sure? Reinfeldt would be very pro-austerity, and would probably back the Merkel economic plan 100%.

Barroso didn't?

That said, yeah, generally speaking having, a South European now might be a safer path.

[MaxQue]

Monti?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Monti?

Monti would be a great choice actually. He fought for EuroBonds and more pro-growth policies, and he's gained a solid standing among other European leaders (though he's hated at home...).

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

I like how you don't even seem to consider the idea that EPP might loose the election. Who would even be a PES candidate?

[Antonio the Sixth]

I like how you don't even seem to consider the idea that EPP might loose the election.

I'm a generally optimistic person, but... that's not happening.

They will probably lose a couple seats, which is already something.

[The Lord Marbury]

I would caution the left supporters that incumbent governments tend to gain votes during election campaigns in Sweden. I think C and KD are likely to make the threshold at the end of the day with support voting as well.

There are two main obstacles to the social democrats, as I see it. One is that they have to form a governing coalition. They're doing well now because people have forgotten V and MP. At some point that will come back to haunt them a bit. The second issue is that with the Sweden Democrats this strong it will be hard to form a left-wing government. I think it's easier for the right to handle it, especially as they were so close to an own majority.

Yeah I do agree with you that C and KD, or at least one of them will make the 4% barrier (I still think there's a good chance that at least of them will fall 0,1-0,2% short), thanks to Moderate voters backing them to keep all Alliance parties in the Riksdag. However, I am still quite confident that the Alliance will lose seats and probably also come in second to the Red-Green bloc since compared to 2006 and 2010 they actually have very little new thinking to run on. A fifth in-work tax credit? Zzzzz....

Especially now with the unemployment figures rearing its ugly head again, the voters will want some clear message from the government on how to tackle them, but the problem is that all their key reforms such as cutting the employment fee for young in half, cutting the VAT on resturants, etc. have all been carried out and now they have to figure out something new and exciting to bring to the table. The deal between the unions and employers was supposed to be it really but then Svenskt Näringsliv pulled out and now they're stuck, needing to figure out something new to offer. Right now I see the government as being in the same position as Göran Persson's in 2006: tired and out of ideas.

But I do agree with you that the issue of who S will want to govern with will eventually come back up again and Löfven will have to come with a clear message on that, but I also do not think that it's necessary that there is a united Red-Green front for the 2014 election again since it did not work that well last time and there's nothing at all wrong with negotiating the particulars behind closed doors following the election when the parliamentary situation is clear. It's been done before after all (1976 for example, though the doors apparently weren't as closed back then ) and I do hate the idea of permanently cementing the role of the blocs in Swedish politics.

And as for the Sweden Democrats, I agree that it is unlikely that the left will gain its own majority if they stay at the same level in the polls that they're at today. In that case, with the Red-Greens having more seats than the Alliance but not their own majority, I actually think it's more likely that we'd see a continued Alliance government relying on the Sweden Democrats than a Red-Green one. Sort of like what happened in Denmark with right wing government there relying on the Danish People's Party. Though I could also see a chance of one of the Alliance parties jumping ship to the Red-Green side, perhaps FP. But that would only be possible if Jan Björklund was to resign and be replaced with someone like Birgitta Ohlsson. Either that or the Greens jump over to the Alliance side, should it be enough to give them a majority.

Btw, as we're on the topic of Swedish politics... there are rumours that Reinfeldt wants to succed Barosso as President of the EU commission in 2014, and thus will step down this year to leave way to a new M-leader and PM.

That just doesn't feel that likely to me. Reinfeldt might be tired and worn out, something you can tell just by looking at his latest tv appearances, I think that the idea of leading a right wing government to a third straight election victory appeals to him very much. Coupled with Anders Borg's harsh denial of him replacing Reinfeldt before 2014, it doesn't feel very likely. However I will say that if it should happen, Reinfeldt will be stepping down as PM towards the end of the summer at the very latest, since Borg is going to need at least a year or so in the office before the election.

Him stepping down in favor of someone else I don't see as possible in any way. Because aside from Reinfeldt and Borg, the party really doesn't have someone who's popular enough to lead them to reelection and putting some relative unknown as PM a little over a year to the next election is a disaster waiting to happen.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

I agree with you that Borg does not want to be party leader and PM. He's an economist, not a politician. Still I think there are a few alternatives that would be a possibilty to succed Reinfeldt if he stepped down. I actually think Hillevi Engström could turn out to be a good leader for the Moderates.

I mean why not counter Löfvén with another Union leader. And it would be nice depriving the left from getting the first female PM. I wonder if the left-wingers who said we should support the red-greens last time because it was about time we had a female PM would say the same for Engström.

But you're quite right that Reinfeldt would have to announce his retierment quite soon if he were to step down before the next election.

[The Lord Marbury]

I agree with you that Borg does not want to be party leader and PM. He's an economist, not a politician. Still I think there are a few alternatives that would be a possibilty to succed Reinfeldt if he stepped down. I actually think Hillevi Engström could turn out to be a good leader for the Moderates.

I mean why not counter Löfvén with another Union leader. And it would be nice depriving the left from getting the first female PM. I wonder if the left-wingers who said we should support the red-greens last time because it was about time we had a female PM would say the same for Engström.

But you're quite right that Reinfeldt would have to announce his retierment quite soon if he were to step down before the next election.

To each his own I guess. From what I've seen of Engström in debates and speeches and so forth, she hasn't impressed me in the slightest. She might be a decent enough leader for the Moderates (better than some of the other alternatives), but somehow I doubt that she'd make any kind of a difference to the polling numbers. At least Reinfeldt is good at coming off as sympathetic and friendly in his public appearances, even if to me it just comes across as smarmy condescending arrogance, but I haven't even seen a hint of that level of skill coming from her.

Countering Löfven with another union person (not leader, she was only an ombudsman) might work if she had some concrete labour policy to come with, but from what I've seen and experienced she really doesn't. Also, even as a left winger I can say that the people who said you should vote red-green because we'd get a female PM are morons. Competence should always come first, and that's why I'd never support an Engström government in any way.

(Also there's no accent on the e in Löfven, even if it sounds like there should be)

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Also, even as a left winger I can say that the people who said you should vote red-green because we'd get a female PM are morons. Competence should always come first, and that's why I'd never support an Engström government in any way.

Well I believe most people (left- or right-wing) found that argument stupid, and some people bringing it up probably just did more harm than any good. And naturally you wouldn't support an Engström government, the day SSU members start backing Moderate lead goverments, I will start to be worried where this country is going.

(Also there's no accent on the e in Löfven, even if it sounds like there should be)

Well actually according to folkbokföringen:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Also, even as a left winger I can say that the people who said you should vote red-green because we'd get a female PM are morons. Competence should always come first, and that's why I'd never support an Engström government in any way.

Well I believe most people (left- or right-wing) found that argument stupid, and some people bringing it up probably just did more harm than any good. And naturally you wouldn't support an Engström government, the day SSU members start backing Moderate lead goverments, I will start to be worried where this country is going.

The same argument was brought up with Ségolène Royal. You can guess what is my opinion of these people...

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

I'd also like to add that I see Engström as a realistic successor to Reinfeldt. Obviously if I could have anyone I wanted it'd be Maria Abrahamsson. ^^ But let's face it, she's too awsome for it to actually be anything more than MP. 

And she's a good person to rally the right-wing troopes, but not convince and win the swing-voters.

[RodPresident]

Eurozone leaders (France and Germany) will want one leader from them to be next leader of European Union to not show weakness. That takes Reinfeldt out equation.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Eurozone leaders (France and Germany) will want one leader from them to be next leader of European Union to not show weakness. That takes Reinfeldt out equation.

Please don't post statements about stuff you clearly have no understanding off.

[MaxQue]

Eurozone leaders (France and Germany) will want one leader from them to be next leader of European Union to not show weakness. That takes Reinfeldt out equation.

Please don't post statements about stuff you clearly have no understanding off.

Talking of that, Hollande and Merkel aren't very close. Through, if I remember well, Monti and Hollande often sided together, against Merkel during meetings, according to media.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Eurozone leaders (France and Germany) will want one leader from them to be next leader of European Union to not show weakness. That takes Reinfeldt out equation.

Please don't post statements about stuff you clearly have no understanding off.

Talking of that, Hollande and Merkel aren't very close. Through, if I remember well, Monti and Hollande often sided together, against Merkel during meetings, according to media.

Indeed. There's no such a thing as "Eurozone leaders". There's the pro-austerity North and the pro-growth South (with France somewhere in between, but increasingly leaning toward the latter).

[The Lord Marbury]

Also, even as a left winger I can say that the people who said you should vote red-green because we'd get a female PM are morons. Competence should always come first, and that's why I'd never support an Engström government in any way.

Well I believe most people (left- or right-wing) found that argument stupid, and some people bringing it up probably just did more harm than any good. And naturally you wouldn't support an Engström government, the day SSU members start backing Moderate lead goverments, I will start to be worried where this country is going.

(Also there's no accent on the e in Löfven, even if it sounds like there should be)

Well actually according to folkbokföringen:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

True, so true.

Huh, how 'bout that. Oh well, I'll still write it as Löfven since that's apparently how he himself does it.

I'd also like to add that I see Engström as a realistic successor to Reinfeldt. Obviously if I could have anyone I wanted it'd be Maria Abrahamsson. ^^ But let's face it, she's too awsome for it to actually be anything more than MP. 

And she's a good person to rally the right-wing troopes, but not convince and win the swing-voters.

YES, make that happen! Not because I like her or think her politics are remotely good for the country, but because with her at the helm SAP reaching 40% in 2014 doesn't seem so far fetched anymore.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

YES, make that happen! Not because I like her or think her politics are remotely good for the country, but because with her at the helm SAP reaching 40% in 2014 doesn't seem so far fetched anymore.

Be careful what you wish for, I'm sure Labour would have said similar things about Thatcher before she became Prime Minister.

[Tayya]

Abrahamsson was at my school just recently, debating gender equality issues against Jonas Sjöstedt. I may not agree with her on many issues, but she has some independence, which is sorely needed in the Riksdag, especially in the Moderates. But she might go to jail. (http://www.thelocal.se/46990/20130328/#.UVh_rjf7CDo) (Or not - it's a stunt, but for a decent cause)

Personally, I think Anna Kinberg Batra could be someone to watch out for, if Borg doesn't want it. The other female ministers as well (Catharina Elmsäter-Svärd and to a lesser extent Gunilla Carlsson). Personally, I hope for Tobias Billström, if nothing else to see the socially libertarians of the Centre and Liberal Youth Leagues here in Stockholm go insane.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Personally, I think Anna Kinberg Batra could be someone to watch out for.

Her gaffe "People from Stockholm are smarter than people from the country side" will hunt her forever though.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Personally, I think Anna Kinberg Batra could be someone to watch out for.

Her gaffe "People from Stockholm are smarter than people from the country side" will hunt her forever though.

Sweden, the place where right-wingers are the urban elitists and left-wingers are the rural rednecks.

[The Lord Marbury]

YES, make that happen! Not because I like her or think her politics are remotely good for the country, but because with her at the helm SAP reaching 40% in 2014 doesn't seem so far fetched anymore.

Be careful what you wish for, I'm sure Labour would have said similar things about Thatcher before she became Prime Minister.

There's a slight difference there in that Labour was actually in power back then and were crushed in the '79 election because of the Winter of Discontent and economic difficulties during their time in office*. Now the Moderates are actually in charge so Löfven could just sit back, pour himself a nice glass of Jägermeister or Whiskey, whatever he prefers, and just wait for the inevitable implosion of the Alliance and just sail into power afterwards.

*Interestingly enough, if Callaghan had had the guts to call an election in 1978 there was a fair chance that Labour would've gotten an additional five years (or less, depending on the size of their majority), as seen in polling around that time. And then Thatcher possibly never would've have made it into office since Labour would be guaranteed to get another term after that if the Falklands still happens.

Abrahamsson was at my school just recently, debating gender equality issues against Jonas Sjöstedt. I may not agree with her on many issues, but she has some independence, which is sorely needed in the Riksdag, especially in the Moderates. But she might go to jail. (http://www.thelocal.se/46990/20130328/#.UVh_rjf7CDo) (Or not - it's a stunt, but for a decent cause)

Personally, I think Anna Kinberg Batra could be someone to watch out for, if Borg doesn't want it. The other female ministers as well (Catharina Elmsäter-Svärd and to a lesser extent Gunilla Carlsson). Personally, I hope for Tobias Billström, if nothing else to see the socially libertarians of the Centre and Liberal Youth Leagues here in Stockholm go insane.

That's kind of interesting and it's one of the very few occasions on which I agree with her on something. That current child pornography law is really just far to vague and far reaching for the police to able to hunt down the real criminals, and definitely needs some changing. I also agreed with her when she protested against the FRA-law back in '08, but of course then recently it turned out that she's just a massive hypocrite when she voted for the data storage directive. Also, I envy you that you get some national politicians visiting your school to debate things. Nothing like that ever happens here, only the Kommunalråd showing up at times. Though we did get Reinfeldt visiting a few years back, but that was on a break and just some PR crap.

I could definitely see Anna Kinberg Batra having a decent shot at it because after all it's been a good while since she made that stupid remark, though it's certainly something which would come back to haunt her in taunts and opposition soundbites just like what happened with Mona Sahlin and references to the Toblerone thing during her time as leader. I'm not sure about Elmsäter-Svärd or Gunilla Carlsson, they both come off as quite stiff and upper class bourgeois so I doubt that they'd be able to connect with voters very well (but for a Moderate leader that's obviously a plus in my book).

As for Tobias Billström, I would LOVE to see him as leader. Him and Annie Lööf are plain simple just the best two ministers that the opposition could hope for.

Personally, I think Anna Kinberg Batra could be someone to watch out for.

Her gaffe "People from Stockholm are smarter than people from the country side" will hunt her forever though.

Sweden, the place where right-wingers are the urban elitists and left-wingers are the rural rednecks.

Indeed. I still remember how shocked I was when I found out in the US and UK that it was in the major cities that the left was the strongest since I had always associated the cities with egotistical bourgeois elitists.