The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread

[Intell]

What is the base of the Sweden democrats, it seems to be more stronger in areas in the south, which are largely right-wing?

Who do the working class vote for in Sweden?

[The Lord Marbury]

What is the base of the Sweden democrats, it seems to be more stronger in areas in the south, which are largely right-wing?

Who do the working class vote for in Sweden?

It is indeed stronger in southern Sweden and its base increasingly consists of people who previously used to vote for the Moderates. Their recent growth in the larger cities reflect that, as it generally corresponds to drops for the Moderates. Before 2014 people used to talk about SD voters as young and uneducated, but the last election shows that their average voter is male, middle-aged with middle incomes and former Moderates who grew disillusioned in the party under Reinfeldt. However in 2010 when they first entered parliament their voters mostly came from non-voters and roughly equal shares of former Social Democrats and Moderates.

Working class voters generally vote centre-left and Social Democratic in particular as Swedes have historically voted along economic lines, even if that has lessened over time, especially with the emergence of SD.

In other news there's also a new poll by Novus of which parties have issue ownership over the ten most important issues to the voters. The polling period was obviously before Friday's attack. We'll see if the government will eventually get a bump for that as another Novus poll for SVT showed that 62% of Swedes were happy with Löfven's performance in the aftermath of the attack, and his approvals have increased from 26% last year to 37% now, which admittedly is from a very low level. The government as a whole has seen a similar bump.

Healthcare
Social Democrats - 20%
Left - 10%
Moderates - 8%

Education/schools
Social Democrats - 17%
Liberals - 15%
Moderates - 9%

Immigration/integration
Sweden Democrats - 26%
Social Democrats - 16%
Centre - 11%

Law and order
Moderates - 18%
Social Democrats - 16%
Sweden Democrats - 14%

Elderly care
Social Democrats - 18%
Left - 9%
Sweden Democrats - 8%

Jobs/employment
Social Democrats - 20%
Moderates - 18%
Centre - 8%

The economy
Moderates - 26%
Social Democrats - 22%
Centre - 6%

Environment/climate change
Greens - 23%
Centre - 20%
Social Democrats - 9%

Pensions
Social Democrats - 19%
Moderates - 8%
Left - 7%
Sweden Democrats - 7%

Housing
Social Democrats - 17%
Moderates - 12%
Centre - 7%
Left - 7%

It is kind of funny how the Moderates have spent so much time and political capital on their immigration policies and yet they can't even break into the top three there. Only 7% think that they have the best immigration/integration policies, but they should look at it from the bright side; at least they're ahead of the Left Party by 1%.

[Gustaf]

What is the base of the Sweden democrats, it seems to be more stronger in areas in the south, which are largely right-wing?

Who do the working class vote for in Sweden?

My impression is that most SD voters are originally Social Democrats, but the switch has often happened via Moderaterna. I mean, if you look long term, M is about the same level as they were 20 years ago, the only established party that has lost massive amounts of voters is the Social Democrats.

The working class historically votes predominantly Social Democrat, with certain groups voting for the Left and a minority voting M. Recently, SD is gaining a lot in this demographic and it wouldn't surprise me if they surpass the Social Democrats at some point, as has happened in places like Austria and Denmark.

[PetrSokol]

What do you see as difference between SD and other Scandinavian rigt-wing populists? Are Finns Party or Norvegian Progress party or DFP more moderate as SDM?

[DC Al Fine]

Why do the Liberals poll so well on education?

[Vosem]

What are the most significant differences between Liberals and Center? Do the differences consist mainly in what issues they prioritize? In terms of priorities, I feel like I'd be likelier to vote for the Liberals than Center, but I'd definitely prefer a Center-led Alliance than a Moderate-led one, and I don't understand why the parties don't just merge. Obviously this would have been an inaccurate analysis quite recently, when Center were a chiefly agrarian party, but their move towards picking up urban voters seems to have landed them in virtually the same space. Is "historical reasons" the entire explanation? Are there politicians in either party who advocate merger?

[The Lord Marbury]

What do you see as difference between SD and other Scandinavian rigt-wing populists? Are Finns Party or Norvegian Progress party or DFP more moderate as SDM?

Well the main differences is obviously where the parties have their roots. Originally the Norwegian Progress Party was more of an anti-tax libertarian protest movement; Still very much populist but not necessarily anti-immigration populists as that was something which came in over time. The DPP and the True Finns also grew out of other populist protest parties, the Danish Progress Party and the Finnish Rural Party respectively. The Sweden Democrats on the other hand grew out of the neo-nazi organisation Keep Sweden Swedish and for the first few years of the party's existence the leadership and membership was quite happy to be flag-waving and swastika-wearing neo-nazis out in public. Nowadays Åkesson and the rest of the leadership are of course doing everything they can to sweep all that under the rug, but those brown stains don't wash away so easy.

Why do the Liberals poll so well on education?

That's because they've defined themselves as the education party for the past 15 years or so, and their leader and former Minister for Education Jan Björklund in particular has been known for focusing on education since long before he ever became leader. They used to hold a big lead over all other parties on education, so big in fact that the Social Democrats' post-election analysis after 2006 said that the party should avoid focusing on education in 2010 because they had no chance of bridging the gap. That of course changed during the last years of the Reinfeldt government has anger and frustration with Björklund coming from teachers and students along with a renewed focus on education from the Social Democrats after Löfven became leader resulted in dropping poll numbers. The drop which finally made the cup run over was the truly awful results for Swedish schools in the 2013 PISA study, after which the Social Democrats opened up big lead on the issue. However since entering government the Social Democrats have lost ground as well, and since the Liberals are still seen as the definitive education party on the right they are the ones who benefit.

What are the most significant differences between Liberals and Center? Do the differences consist mainly in what issues they prioritize? In terms of priorities, I feel like I'd be likelier to vote for the Liberals than Center, but I'd definitely prefer a Center-led Alliance than a Moderate-led one, and I don't understand why the parties don't just merge. Obviously this would have been an inaccurate analysis quite recently, when Center were a chiefly agrarian party, but their move towards picking up urban voters seems to have landed them in virtually the same space. Is "historical reasons" the entire explanation? Are there politicians in either party who advocate merger?

Well while merging the two parties is something which has been discussed now and then throughout the years, with the closest it ever was to come to fruition being in 1973 when Centre Party said no in spite of their leader being in favour. The biggest differences between the two parties is that they've grown out of very different movements and social groups, which still shapes their ideologies today, even if it's not as superficially obvious as it used to be.

The Liberals have their roots in the Liberal Coalition Party of the early 1900s which then was a leftwing party which governed and pushed through universal sufferage together with Social Democrats, before splitting over the issue of prohibition only to reunite some 10 years later under the name Folkpartiet (The People's Party). Their post-war leader Bertil Ohlin who was the main opponent of Tage Erlander during the 50s came to define their social liberal ideology of being centrist and anti-socialist while in favour of a welfare state without nationalisations. During the 70s when the Centre Party was the dominant force of the right they drifted further leftwards and in the 80s Bengt Westerberg took leadership of the party and lead on a course which focused on social issues, healthcare and gender equality. When the party then participated the Bildt government of the early 90s it pushed through the first father-reserved month in the parental leave system, an expansion of assitance for people with physical or intellectual disabilities, and so forth. However during the 2000s the party has more and more turned away from their social liberal roots and approached conservative liberalism with a focus on education as previously mentioned, especially in terms of discipline and grades, as well as flirtations with some anti-immigrant sentiments during the 2002 election in particular. As the Moderates became more centrist during the Reinfeldt era the Liberals also moved right on defence and are currently positioning themselves as the most pro-defence party in the Alliance. The means that the Liberals today are this strange mish-mash of social liberalism and conservative liberalism, with one faction wanting to talk about feminism, disability care and "soft issues", while there's a vehemently pro-NATO, pro-defence faction in the leadership that wants to talk about "hard issues" like placing Patriot missiles on Gotland and getting more discipline in schools. No one really knows what kind of party the Liberals want to be, and I somehow doubt that they know either.

The Centre Party as you said come out of an agrarian tradition and because of that their liberalism is something which has been slowly tacked on over time as farmers as a social group shrank and the party couldn't survive solely on being the party of farmers. Before Fälldin's leadership and the 1970s they were happy to cooperate with either side of the political spectrum, which resulted in the Social Democratic-Centre coalition of the 50s, but ever since then they've defined themselves as centrist, environmentalist and social liberal party on the right of centre. The budget deals with the Social Democrats in the wake of the 1990s economic crisis was the exception and from Maud Olofssons leadership onwards they've moved further right and begun actively courting young, small-L liberal voters in the cities, something which has finally paid off now with the Moderate crisis. But their core voters are still people living in rural areas and in spite of their success in the cities that is important to remember, as that still shapes big parts of their policies. Just as the Liberal base of middle to upper-class acedemics in cities shape a significant part of their policies.

In spite of being an increasingly liberal and sometimes libertarian-leaning party the Centre Party quite happily supports increased subsidies for farmers, decentralistion of powers to counties and municipalities and is the most eurosceptic party among the Alliance, even if that has lessened over time. Their environmentalist streak also brings with it a continued opposition to nuclear power. This is in contrast to the Liberals who are generally sceptical of subsidies* and by far the most pro-EU and pro-nuclear party in the Swedish parliament. Not to mention the key issue of the Centre Party being decentralistic at heart while the Liberals have long argued that powers over education should be transferred from the municipalities to the national government. I don't think any issue symbolises the ideological differences between the Centre Party and the Liberals more than decentralisation vs. centralisation.

*Admittedly the Centre Party is very anti-subsidy in rhetoric as well, though in actual policy its more a question of what's being subsidised. But of course a subsidy for something they like is not even a subsidy in their eyes so it would be utterly baffling to call it that....

[The Lord Marbury]

New DN/Ipsos poll out today.
http://www.dn.se/nyheter/sverige/dnipsos-alliansvaljarna-foredrar-loof-som-statsminister/

Who would you rather have as Prime Minister....

...Anna Kinberg Batra or Annie Lööf?

All voters
Anna Kinberg Batra (M): 35%
Annie Lööf (C): 65%

Alliance voters
Anna Kinberg Batra (M): 41%
Annie Lööf (C): 59%

Red-Green voters
Anna Kinberg Batra (M): 15%
Annie Lööf (C): 85%

Sweden Democrat voters
Anna Kinberg Batra (M): 63%
Annie Lööf (C): 37%

Moderate voters
Anna Kinberg Batra (M): 70%
Annie Lööf (C): 30%

Centre voters
Anna Kinberg Batra (M): 8%
Annie Lööf (C): 92%

Social Democratic voters
Anna Kinberg Batra (M): 16%
Annie Lööf (C): 84%

...Stefan Löfven or Anna Kinberg Batra?

All voters
Stefan Löfven (S): 53%
Anna Kinberg Batra (M): 47%

Alliance voters
Stefan Löfven (S): 24%
Anna Kinberg Batra (M): 76%

Red-Green voters
Stefan Löfven (S): 96%
Anna Kinberg Batra (M): 4%

Sweden Democrat voters
Stefan Löfven (S): 27%
Anna Kinberg Batra (M): 73%

Moderate voters
Stefan Löfven (S): 5%
Anna Kinberg Batra (M): 95%

Centre voters
Stefan Löfven (S): 39%
Anna Kinberg Batra (M): 61%

Social Democratic voters
Stefan Löfven (S): 99%
Anna Kinberg Batra (M): 1%

...Stefan Löfven or Annie Lööf?

All voters
Stefan Löfven (S): 49%
Annie Lööf (C): 51%

Alliance voters
Stefan Löfven (S): 16%
Annie Lööf (C): 84%

Red-Green voters
Stefan Löfven (S): 89%
Annie Lööf (C): 11%

Sweden Democrat voters
Stefan Löfven (S): 40%
Annie Lööf (C): 60%

Moderate voters
Stefan Löfven (S): 20%
Annie Lööf (C): 80%

Centre voters
Stefan Löfven (S): 6%
Annie Lööf (C): 94%

Social Democratic voters
Stefan Löfven (S): 96%
Annie Lööf (C): 4%

....Stefan Löfven, Annie Lööf, Anna Kinberg Batra or Jimmie Åkesson?
Stefan Löfven (S): 37%
Annie Lööf (C): 27%
Anna Kinberg Batra (M): 18%
Jimmie Åkesson (SD): 18%

Oh lord, please don't let AKB's ratings crater disastrously just yet and have the Moderates replace her before the election with someone who's actually somewhat popular and charismatic. With her at the helm we could actually have a small chance to win next year.

[DavidB.]

Who are these SD voters who would prefer Löfven over AKB? I get that some SD voters used to vote S, but I would have expected these voters to hate the left-wing government more than the relatively SD-friendly opposition leader, especially given immigration being so salient.

[The Lord Marbury]

Who are these SD voters who would prefer Löfven over AKB? I get that some SD voters used to vote S, but I would have expected these voters to hate the left-wing government more than the relatively SD-friendly opposition leader, especially given immigration being so salient.

Well there's partly the fact that as you say that some SD voters used to be Social Democrats back in the day, but there's also the big contrast between Löfven and AKB. In Löfven you have a working class man from the countryside who's not generally considered part of the progressive social liberal left, but rather a traditional "gråsosse" who doesn't have any problem with tacking right on crime while simultaneously going left on economic issues. In Kinberg Batra you have someone who seems very academic in her public appearances, is from one of the wealthiest parts of Stockholm (think the Chelsea of Sweden), and prior to becoming leader was most famous for saying that people from Stockholm were smarter that hillbillies. It makes sense that some Sweden Democrats, especially from rural Sweden, would prefer Löfven over AKB.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

New DN/Ipsos poll out today.
http://www.dn.se/nyheter/sverige/dnipsos-alliansvaljarna-foredrar-loof-som-statsminister/

Who would you rather have as Prime Minister....

...Stefan Löfven or Annie Lööf?

All voters
Stefan Löfven (S): 49%
Annie Lööf (C): 51%

[ANNIE LÖÖF LAUGHS MANIACALLY]

Anyway, I don't really think you can put too much blame on Kinberg-Batra personally for the Moderates currently awful polling numbers. I mean don't get me wrong, she obviously lacks charisma and has the whole "snobbish" problem going on but I seriously doubt any other Moderate politician would be doing better at the moment.

The problem, as I see it, is that M's turn to the right has alienated their centrist and progressive voters while their former voters on the right who has jumped ship to SD still don't trust them on immigration and feels as if the party isn't genuine in their support for more restrictive immigration policies.

The party could choose a more Conservative leader and win some SD voters but would alienate their centrist flank even more... or they could choose someone more Liberal and pro-immigration and keep bleeding support to SD. Either strategy would result in the same dismal or even worse support than now. 

If AKB's was to leave, I have a hard time seeing who could realistically replace her? Elmsäter-Svärd and Björling has left politics, Ask and Billström  are spent forces, Svantesson is too socially-conservative (especially on abortion), Hanif Bali is too young and too radical and so on.

The only three people I could see are Ulf Kristersson, Karin Enström or Peter Danielsson and I don't think either of those are likable or charismatic enough to do anything for the voters to save M's numbers.

Johan Forsell would of course also be an alternative. But it would be a shame to spoil the party's most promising future leader on an election that looks like it'll go terribly wrong for the party.     

[Diouf]

Poll by Som-institute at Göteborg University. 52% wants Sweden to take in fewer refugees, 24% is opposed to taking fewer refugees. 96% of SD voters wants fewer refugees, but also a majority of Moderate (64%) and KD (53%) voters support it. For the Social Democrats and Liberals the number is 42 and 41 %, and even in Annie Löof's Centre Party, 34% wants fewer refugees. The number of people opposed to fewer refugees is not mentioned for the parties, but at least for the Social Democrats and the Liberals, it seems likely that more people prefer the proposal than are opposed to it considering the low overall score for opposition to the notion.

53% would like a vote on EU-membership, but 56% thinks it's a bad idea to leave the EU, while only 22% support it.

[The Lord Marbury]

Anyway, I don't really think you can put too much blame on Kinberg-Batra personally for the Moderates currently awful polling numbers. I mean don't get me wrong, she obviously lacks charisma and has the whole "snobbish" problem going on but I seriously doubt any other Moderate politician would be doing better at the moment.

The problem, as I see it, is that M's turn to the right has alienated their centrist and progressive voters while their former voters on the right who has jumped ship to SD still don't trust them on immigration and feels as if the party isn't genuine in their support for more restrictive immigration policies.

The party could choose a more Conservative leader and win some SD voters but would alienate their centrist flank even more... or they could choose someone more Liberal and pro-immigration and keep bleeding support to SD. Either strategy would result in the same dismal or even worse support than now. 

If AKB's was to leave, I have a hard time seeing who could realistically replace her? Elmsäter-Svärd and Björling has left politics, Ask and Billström  are spent forces, Svantesson is too socially-conservative (especially on abortion), Hanif Bali is too young and too radical and so on.

The only three people I could see are Ulf Kristersson, Karin Enström or Peter Danielsson and I don't think either of those are likable or charismatic enough to do anything for the voters to save M's numbers.

Johan Forsell would of course also be an alternative. But it would be a shame to spoil the party's most promising future leader on an election that looks like it'll go terribly wrong for the party.     

That much is certainly true, the Moderate Party's problems run much deeper than AKB as a result of the divide between liberals and conservatives that was brewing somewhat silently in the background before SD entered the Riksdag having opened up into a big chasm straight through the middle of the party's voting bloc. Although the party leadership certainly have made some strategic errors and used some misguided PR strategies which have only served to exacerbate the problems. I do think that another leader may have done somewhat better than AKB (I'm thinking of Catharina Elmsäter-Svärd in particular), but "better" in that case would likely just mean about level or slightly below the 2014 result or more of a slow decline like what we saw before february, instead of the sharp drop we've seen now.

I don't think that getting a new leader would do them much good at this stage either; It may give them a brief bump in the opinion polls just as a result of a fresh face effect but it won't bring much more than that. Changing leaders just a year before an election could also backfire as it doesn't exactly exude an air of stability. Löfven and the Social Democrats would however miss having an opponent that is so easily painted as posh now when they're trying to go back to basics by focusing more on Löfven's working class background rather than try and sell him as this big statesman meeting world leaders.

While I do think that most of the party knows the risks of changing leader, if they still went through with a change I'm guessing that Ulf Kristersson and Elisabeth Svantesson are the two likeliest choices. In spite of Svantesson's positions on social issues she's supposedly very well liked within the party, so I wouldn't rule her out at least. And in spite of my vehement dislike of him and the general unlikely nature of it ever happening, a part of me would like to see Hanif Bali suddenly become leader. Just to see what would happen to the Alliance with him as leader of the largest party, and what he would do when suddenly faced with having to modify his message to reach people beyond his loyal followers.

However if there's any change in the leadership of the Moderates at this point in time my bet is that it would be far more likely for Tomas Tobé to get the boot as party secretary rather than AKB as leader.

[The Lord Marbury]

New SvD/SIFO poll:

Left: 7.8% (-0.4)
Social Democrats: 29.2% (-0.7)
Greens: 5.0% (+1.8 )

Liberals: 5.5% (+0.1)
Centre: 13.0% (-0.8 )
Moderate: 18.1% (+0.6)
Christian Democrats: 2.6% (-0.3)

Sweden Democrats: 16.5% (-0.2)

Alliance: 39.9% (-0.4)
Red-Greens: 42.0% (+0.7)

This poll seems to indicate that the drop of the Moderates and the massive gains of the Centre Party have levelled off for now, while the sudden drop from the Greens in the aftermath of the terrorist attack may have just been a blip as Greens voters briefly moved to the Social Democrats. We'll just have to wait and see. But as usual very little is happening in the grand scheme of things; The situation is between the blocs is pretty much level, as it has been ever since the last election, which is pretty bad news for the Alliance since an opposition should be leading the government by about 10-20 points at this stage in the parliamentary term. Although if you take into account the Sweden Democrats the opposition certainly does lead the government by that much, but that's just bad news for everyone involved.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Poll of polls for APRILl - Svensk Väljaroppinion (EKOT)


Left (V): 7.8%
Social Democrats (S): 28.7%
Greens (Mp): 4.1%

S+V+Mp: 40.6%


Liberals (L): 5.5%
Centre Party (C): 12.9%
Moderates (M): 17.3%
Christian Democrats (Kd): 3.2%

M+C+L+Kd: 38,9%


Sweden Democrats: 17.6% (-0.2)

[Helsinkian]

So, I see that Greens are under the 4 % hurdle in all of the three most recent polls.

[The Lord Marbury]

In some shocking news, there were a few bad headlines for the Moderates yesterday. First Expressen ran a story about how MPs were very critical of the party leadership at a meeting of the Moderates' Riksdag group today; A meeting which the party leader, party secretary, parliamentary group leader and deputy parliamentary group leader did not attend. The main part of the criticism was that the leadership is entirely lacking a coherent strategy and is far too reliant on staffers without political experience. The party's head of opinion analysis Per "when they go low we kick them in the balls" Nilsson also said that best case scenario for M in the big SCB poll coming on Thursday is probably 18%, with a worst case scenario at around 14,5%.
http://www.expressen.se/nyheter/interna-kritiken-kinberg-batras-framtid-hotad/

Later in the day Dagens Industri published a story behind a paywall (although Aftonbladet were kind enough to report on the jist of it) where it's said that several sources independent of one another within the Moderates have said that Anna Kinberg Batra will be forced to resign. The Moderates in Stockholm are apparently the ones who are the most dissatisfied with AKB, while the Moderates in Skåne are said to be slightly less unhappy but not exactly over the moon with her performance. Though I'm wondering if this actually could be happening or if it's all just a bunch of noise. After all, AKB's greatest strength is that the list of possible replacements isn't particularly long and doesn't fill anyone with excitement. One of the benefits of having all your strongest opponents leave politics in 2014/2015, I guess.
http://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/BQpPg/uppgifter-stort-internt-missnoje-med-akb-kan-tvingas-avga

Now today, Lars-Ingvar Ljungman, chair of the Moderate nominating committee accuses the critics of Anna Kinberg Batra of being "spoiled"; Only used to the good times under Reinfeldt and Borg and inexperienced with having to deal with hardships without being able to hide behind those two. He demands that the "trench warfare" and "spreading of rumours" should end and people should focus on policy development instead of fighting about the leadership. Comments which are obviously going to make everyone much happier and calmer. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
http://www.dn.se/nyheter/politik/ljungman-m-det-far-vara-slut-med-skyttegravskrig/

According to Dagens Industri, the big thing which has a lot of Moderates spooked recently is an internal poll which shows them severely losing support in Stockholm, which is usually their big stronghold. In the City of Stockholm they've apparently dropped to 14% and fourth place, compared to the numbers around 30% which they've been used to for the past few decades, and meanwhile in Stockholm County where they've averaged around 40% since 2006 in SCB polls their numbers seem to have halved to 19%.

[The Lord Marbury]

Christian Gustavsson, Chair of the Moderates in Östergötland County and a member of the party board, becomes the first Moderate in a position of leadership to openly call for Anna Kinberg Batra's resignation.
http://corren.se/nyheter/linkoping/nu-kraver-han-partiledarens-avgang-om4681582.aspx

[The Lord Marbury]

The SCB poll is out. Almost 9000 people have been polled, with the result being the highest poll number for the Centre Party since 1990, and the lowest for the Greens since 2005 in SBC's polls. The change is since the last poll in November.

Left: 6.3% (-1.4)
Social Democrats: 31.1% (+1.9)
Green: 4.5% (±0)

Liberal: 5.0% (±0)
Centre: 11.3% (+4.2)
Moderate: 18.1% (-4.7)
Christian Democrats: 3.2% (+0.1)

Sweden Democrats: 18.4% (+0.8 )

Other: 2.2%

Red-Greens: 41.6% (Government: 35.6%)
Alliance: 37.6%

Meanwhile the Liberals are feeling jealous of all the fighting in the Moderates and therefore the Liberals in Uppsala, Örebro, Järfälla and Nynäshamn want to replace Jan Björklund as leader with Birgitta Ohlsson at the party conference in November.
http://www.dn.se/nyheter/sverige/flera-vill-byta-ut-jan-bjorklund/

[The Lord Marbury]

I call this piece "Liberal conservatism; An illustration"

[Tender Branson]

New developments in Sweden ... as the Moderate Party collapses, the Sweden Democrats reach a new record high in the new Sentio poll out today and are now the largest party in Sweden ahead of the Social Democrats:

July poll vs. June poll

Sverigedemokraterna 26,8 (25,0)
Socialdemokraterna 22,4 (24,7)
Moderaterna 12,7 (15,9)
Centerpartiet 11,6 (11,2)
Vänsterpartiet 9,2 (7,9)
“Liberalerna” 5,7 (4,2)
Kristdemokraterna 3,8 (3,5)
Miljöpartiet 3,8 (3,1)
Fi 1,8 (2,5)
Piratpartiet 1,2 (1,1)

https://nyheteridag.se/sentio-sd-mer-an-dubbelt-sa-stora-som-m-och-storsta-parti-med-marginal

[Helsinkian]

And even the worst polls for SD now give them a support of around 20 percent.

[Tender Branson]

And even the worst polls for SD now give them a support of around 20 percent.

I guess by "worst" you mean the phone polls ...

In fact, online panel pollsters like Sentio and YouGov predicted the SD share most accurately back in 2014, while phone pollsters vastly underestimated them.

Still a long way to go though. But the traditional "people's parties" seem to be under significant pressure right now and bleeding tons of voters to the SD. We'll see what happens there next year. Maybe the centrist parties will make some sort of comeback like the ÖVP ... (or not).

[Diouf]

Also, there is now some kind of scandal regarding many of the top Social Democrat ministers regarding the leak of confidential information, which could perhaps hurt their poll numbers further.


https://www.ft.com/content/d9e15fe4-7051-11e7-aca6-c6bd07df1a3c

[Lord Halifax]

Also, there is now some kind of scandal regarding many of the top Social Democrat ministers regarding the leak of confidential information, which could perhaps hurt their poll numbers further.

https://www.ft.com/content/d9e15fe4-7051-11e7-aca6-c6bd07df1a3c

Behind paywall