2014 U.S. Senate race projections

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Republicans pick up South Dakota and West Virginia when incumbent Democrats Jay Rockefeller and Tim Johnson retire.
In a crowded and devisive primary, Paul Broun wins the GOP Nomination but loses to State Senator Jason Carter in the GE. 51%-47%
Ashley Judd doesn't run for Senate and State Auditor Adam Edelen wins the Democratic Nomination. He hits Mitch McConnell as a "Washingtonian, out-of-tough with Kentucky values" and narrowly wins the General Election with a plurality. 49%-48%
Susan Collins runs for re-election and wins.
Mark Begich narrowly beats Lt. Governor Mead Treadwell by a 51%-49% margin because of personal popularity.
Mark Pryor succeeds over Mark Darr 52%-47% in Arkansas with help from his personal popularity.
Bruce Braley buries Steve King by a 54%-46% margin in Iowa.
Jeff Landry wins the GOP Nod in Louisiana, but loses to Mary Landrieu 52%-45%.
Max Baucus of Montana easily fights back a challenge from State Senator Corey Stapelton, 58%-39%.
Down in North Carolina, Kay Hagan is able to beat Virginia Foxx 53%-46%. Foxx's many audacious statements keeps her at 46% for most of the race.

[RogueBeaver]

Pubs pick up SD and WV. Other than that too early to tell.

[NewYorkExpress]

Alabama-Richard Shelby 59% Dem 32%
Alaska- Mark Begich 50.3% Mead Treadwell 49.7%
Arkansas- Mark Pryor 53.4% Asa Hutchinson 46.6%
Colorado- Mark Udall 50.6% Scott Tipton 48.8%
Delaware, Chris Coons (unopposed
Georgia- Lynn Westmoreland 47.5% John Barrow 49%
Idaho- Mike Crapo unopposed
Illinois- Richard Durbin 56% Aaron Shock 43.2%
Iowa- Tom Harkin 51.1% Steve King 49.7%
Kansas- Kevin Yoder 74%
Kentucky- Mitch McConnell 60% Andy Barr 39.9%
Louisana (Runoff) - John Fleming 50.7% Mary Landrieu 49.3%
Maine- Mike Michaud 39% Eliot Cutler 33% Michael Thibdeau 28%
Mass- Ed Markey 52% Scott Brown 48%
Michigan- Candice Miller 46.6% Jennifer Granholm 47.7%
Minnesota Al Franken 51.2% Michelle Bachmann 43%
Mississippi- Thad Cochran unopposed
Montana- Max Bacaus 50.1% Steve Daines 49.8%
Nebraska- Mike Johanns unopposed
New Hampshire- Jeanne Shaheen 58% Jeb Bradley 41%
New Jersey -Cory Booker 54% Scott Garrett 45%
New Mexico- Tom Udall unopposed
North Carolina- Kay Hagan 50.3% Thomas Goolsby 49%
Oklahoma- Jim Inhofe unopposed
Oregon- Jeff Merkely 55% Kevin Cameron 42%
Rhode Island- Sheldon Whitehouse unopposed
South Carolina "A"-(Primary) Lindsey Graham 44% Joe Wilson 51%
South Carolina "B"-Tim Scott 69% Vincent Sheheen 26%'
South Dakota Mike Rounds 56% Tim Johnson 43.4%
Tennessee- Diane Black- 57% Phil Breseden 41%
Texas- John Cornyn 69% Joaquin Castro 29%
Virginia-  Mark Warner 50.2% Bob McDonnell 49.6%
West Virginia- Shelly Moore Capito 51% Jay Rockefeller 46.6%
Wyoming- Mike Enzi unopposed

Updating Nebraska
Primary: Dave Heinemann 42% Lee Terry 30% Don Stenberg 24%
General:Dave Heinemann75% John Ewing 23%

[User157088589849]

impossible to predict this far out. the biggest unknown is democratic turnout.  are they solely voting for obama or are they solely there to keep the presidency in democratic control. democrats have a poor turnout operation in non-presidential years. even in 06 the turnout wasn't great despite gain.

[osideguy92]

Alabama: Richard Shelby (R) 64% vs. Dem (D) 33%
Alaska: Mark Begich (D) 55% vs. Joe Miller (R) 43%
Arkansas: Mark Pryor (D) 47% vs. Tom Cotton (R) 51% [GOP PICKUP]
Colorado: Mark Udall (D) 53% vs. Jane Norton (R) 47%
Delaware: Chris Coons (D) 57% vs. Christine O'Donnell (R) 40%
Georgia: Paul Broun (R) 49% vs. Jason Carter (D) 50% [DEM PICKUP]
Hawaii (special): Colleen Hanabusa (D) 55% vs. Charles Djou (R) 44%
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D) 62% vs. Joe Walsh (R) 35%
Idaho: Jim Risch (R) 75% vs. Dem (D) 25%
Iowa: Bruce Braley (D) 54% vs. Steve King (R) 44%
Kansas: Pat Roberts (R) 67% vs. Nancy Boyda (D) 32%
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R) 52% vs. Ashley Judd (D) 48%
Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D) 50% vs. Charles Boustany (R) 48%
Maine: Susan Collins (R) 54% vs. Mike Michaud (D) 45%
Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D) 58% vs. Charles Baker (R) 39%
Michigan: Carl Levin (D) 59% vs. Justin Amash (R) 39%
Minnesota: Al Franken (D) 56% vs. Michele Bachmann (R) 42%
Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R) 80% vs. Dem (D) 20%
Montana: Brian Schweitzer (D) 53% vs. Corey Stapleton (R) 45%
Nebraska: Jon Bruning (R) 70% vs. Steve Lathrop (D) 30%
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D) 55% vs. John E. Sununu (R) 43%
New Jersey: Cory Booker (D) 65% vs. Tom Kean Jr. (R) 31%
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D) 54% vs. John Sanchez (R) 45%
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D) 53% vs. Virginia Foxx (R) 44%
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R) 75% vs. Dem (D) 25%
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D) 57% vs. Rick Miller (R) 41%
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D) 63% vs. John Robitaille (R) 34%
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R) 60% vs. Dem (D) 40%
South Carolina (special): Tim Scott (R) 55% vs. Dem (D) 45%
South Dakota: Tim Johnson (D) 47% vs. Mike Rounds (R) 53% [GOP PICKUP]
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R) 55% vs. Dem (D) 45%
Texas: John Cornyn (R) 51% vs. Julian Castro (D) 48%
Virginia: Mark Warner (D) 57% vs. Bill Bolling (R) 40%
West Virginia: Carte Goodwin (D) 34% vs. Shelley Moore Capito (R) 63% [GOP PICKUP]
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R) vs. unopposed


NET RESULT: GOP +2

New Senate: 51 DEM, 47 GOP, 2 IND

[Maxwell]

Alabama: Richard Shelby (R) 64% vs. Dem (D) 33%
Alaska: Mark Begich (D) 55% vs. Joe Miller (R) 43%
Arkansas: Mark Pryor (D) 47% vs. Tom Cotton (R) 51% [GOP PICKUP]
Colorado: Mark Udall (D) 53% vs. Jane Norton (R) 47%
Delaware: Chris Coons (D) 57% vs. Christine O'Donnell (R) 40%
Georgia: Paul Broun (R) 49% vs. Jason Carter (D) 50% [DEM PICKUP]
Hawaii (special): Colleen Hanabusa (D) 55% vs. Charles Djou (R) 44%
Illinois: Dick Durbin (D) 62% vs. Joe Walsh (R) 35%
Idaho: Jim Risch (R) 75% vs. Dem (D) 25%
Iowa: Bruce Braley (D) 54% vs. Steve King (R) 44%
Kansas: Pat Roberts (R) 67% vs. Nancy Boyda (D) 32%
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R) 52% vs. Ashley Judd (D) 48%
Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D) 50% vs. Charles Boustany (R) 48%
Maine: Susan Collins (R) 54% vs. Mike Michaud (D) 45%
Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D) 58% vs. Charles Baker (R) 39%
Michigan: Carl Levin (D) 59% vs. Justin Amash (R) 39%
Minnesota: Al Franken (D) 56% vs. Michele Bachmann (R) 42%
Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R) 80% vs. Dem (D) 20%
Montana: Brian Schweitzer (D) 53% vs. Corey Stapleton (R) 45%
Nebraska: Jon Bruning (R) 70% vs. Steve Lathrop (D) 30%
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D) 55% vs. John E. Sununu (R) 43%
New Jersey: Cory Booker (D) 65% vs. Tom Kean Jr. (R) 31%
New Mexico: Tom Udall (D) 54% vs. John Sanchez (R) 45%
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D) 53% vs. Virginia Foxx (R) 44%
Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R) 75% vs. Dem (D) 25%
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D) 57% vs. Rick Miller (R) 41%
Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D) 63% vs. John Robitaille (R) 34%
South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R) 60% vs. Dem (D) 40%
South Carolina (special): Tim Scott (R) 55% vs. Dem (D) 45%
South Dakota: Tim Johnson (D) 47% vs. Mike Rounds (R) 53% [GOP PICKUP]
Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R) 55% vs. Dem (D) 45%
Texas: John Cornyn (R) 51% vs. Julian Castro (D) 48%
Virginia: Mark Warner (D) 57% vs. Bill Bolling (R) 40%
West Virginia: Carte Goodwin (D) 34% vs. Shelley Moore Capito (R) 63% [GOP PICKUP]
Wyoming: Mike Enzi (R) vs. unopposed


NET RESULT: GOP +2

New Senate: 52 DEM, 46 GOP, 2 IND

Inhofe always wins, but he also always chronically under-performs in Oklahoma (Generic Republican running for President will get 2/3rds of the vote, but Inhofe will only get 57% or 58%). I mean, last election he got 58% to a "who's that" candidate in Andrew Rice, so I don't think he's going to do that well, particularly if the Dems decide to, for once, field a semi-decent candidate against Inhofe. Among the two Senators from Oklahoma, Inhofe is the more beatable one by a long shot, considering Coburn won his last election by over 70% of the vote and his approvals are around 80% in our state.

[JerryArkansas]

[Mehmentum]

[RogueBeaver]

[Miles]

[Beet]

The DSCC may come to regret forcing out Ashley Judd. If it's a race we're going to lose anyway, they might as well have gone with a hail mary pass, and at least make it a high profile contest that draws a lot of money.

[free my dawg]

Whoops. Barrow's out. Most likely candidates are Jason Carter, Michelle Nunn, and Scott Holcomb. They have a small chance at winning if Broun or Gingrey win, but this seat now Leans R.

[Maxwell]

It may have been a couple of years since he's held office in Colorado or anywhere... but what about Former Governor Bill Owens? I haven't seen him polled much anywhere.

[Zioneer]

Whoops. Barrow's out. Most likely candidates are Jason Carter, Michelle Nunn, and Scott Holcomb. They have a small chance at winning if Broun or Gingrey win, but this seat now Leans R.

Actually, check out this survey. Nunn seems to have pretty good numbers here.

[free my dawg]

Whoops. Barrow's out. Most likely candidates are Jason Carter, Michelle Nunn, and Scott Holcomb. They have a small chance at winning if Broun or Gingrey win, but this seat now Leans R.

Actually, check out this survey. Nunn seems to have pretty good numbers here.

I heard (this was right when Barrow opted out). I'm taking this with a grain of salt. It may have been only 2 off of the Barrow race and the presidential election, but this is Georgia that we're talking about. Plus Michelle Nunn isn't exactly a Blue Dog either.

[CatoMinor]

[publicunofficial]

Dems pick-up Georgia if Broun or Gingrey are the nominee. Republicans hold onto Kentucky if Grimes stays out.