PA-PPP: Gov. Tom Corbett (R) stuck in the low 40s against possible challengers

[Tender Branson]

Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Tom Corbett’s job performance?

Approve ................. .38%
Disapprove............. .52%

...

Tom Corbett .................................................... 41%
John Hanger ................................................... 37%

Tom Corbett .................................................... 42%
Kathleen Kane ................................................ 42%

Tom Corbett .................................................... 41%
Rob McCord.................................................... 35%

Tom Corbett .................................................... 41%
Michael Nutter................................................. 38%

Tom Corbett .................................................... 40%
Ed Rendell ...................................................... 46%

Tom Corbett .................................................... 41%
Allyson Schwartz............................................. 34%

Tom Corbett .................................................... 42%
Joe Sestak...................................................... 36%

Tom Corbett .................................................... 41%
Tom Wolf......................................................... 29%

...

In the last presidential election, did you vote for Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

Barack Obama................................................ 50%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 45%

...

PPP surveyed 675 Pennsylvania voters from January 4th to 6th. The margin of error is +/-
3.8 percentage points. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or
political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone
interviews.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_PA_107.pdf

[Tayya]

We knew Corbett was vulnerable, but he's not the ripe fruit some Democrats want him to be.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I think he will probably have a primary challenge to fend off first.

[Keystone Phil]

Yeah, talk about Castor will probably pick up...

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Why wasn't Casey included? And any insight as to why Sestak is down by 6 when we got 49% of the vote in 2010?

[Keystone Phil]

Casey isn't going to do it in 2014.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Is Rendell even able to run again?

[Keystone Phil]

Is Rendell even able to run again?

Yes

[HappyWarrior]

One of the big things to look at in this is how little people know most of those Democrats and the ones they do know should have higher numbers because most of the undecideds are in Democratic leaning demographic groups.

[pbrower2a]

We knew Corbett was vulnerable, but he's not the ripe fruit some Democrats want him to be.

His approvals will need to approach 50% for him to have a chance at re-election. Such is possible but highly unlikely. According to Nate Silver an incumbent Governor or Senator needs an approval rating of 44%  early in the year of the re-election bid to have a 50% chance of being re-elected, and 6% away the chance of being re-elected goes rapidly to near 0% if the incumbent is behind or to near 100% if the candidate is above. Add 6% to the approval rating for an incumbent and you get a good estimate of the voting share in a binary election. Incumbents rarely make big decisions that split the public far from 50%.

Below 38% approval incumbents even running for re-election are rare. Many see the futility of running for re-election and fail to run  and some lose to challenges in primary elections. We are still a year away from the conditions for Silver's analysis to kick in for Corbett in Pennsylvania, but he is going to need miracles in a State that is more D than R in Presidential elections and in which the Tea Party election gets increasingly irrelevant to the one at hand.