who is going to win?

[opebo]

Clinton would have won anyway had Perot not run.

we had that one before
i don't think so

Even if the following states swung (and this is being VERY generous to Bush), Clinton would still have won:

CO (a Bush 88 and Dole 96 state): 8
GA (a Bush 88 and Dole 96 state): 13
KY (a Bush 88 and almost-Dole 96 state): 8
MT (a Bush 88 and Dole 96 state): 3
NH (a Bush 88 and almost-Bush 92 state): 4
NV (a Bush 88 and almost-Dole 96 state): 4
LA (a Bush 88 state and possible Bush 92 state): 9
ME (a Bush 88 state and possible Bush 92 state): 4
NJ (a Bush 88 state and almost-Bush 92 state): 15
OH (a Bush 88 state and almost-Bush 92 state): 21

Clinton/Gore 281
Bush/Quayle 257

You left out Missouri - Perot was a huge factor here in '92.  

[dunn]

Clinton would have won anyway had Perot not run.

we had that one before
i don't think so

Even if the following states swung (and this is being VERY generous to Bush), Clinton would still have won:

CO (a Bush 88 and Dole 96 state): 8
GA (a Bush 88 and Dole 96 state): 13
KY (a Bush 88 and almost-Dole 96 state): 8
MT (a Bush 88 and Dole 96 state): 3
NH (a Bush 88 and almost-Bush 92 state): 4
NV (a Bush 88 and almost-Dole 96 state): 4
LA (a Bush 88 state and possible Bush 92 state): 9
ME (a Bush 88 state and possible Bush 92 state): 4
NJ (a Bush 88 state and almost-Bush 92 state): 15
OH (a Bush 88 state and almost-Bush 92 state): 21

Clinton/Gore 281
Bush/Quayle 257

Tn too, i know still 270-268:)

[© tweed]

TN-Maybe but unlikely.
MO-No way, Bush still lost it by 10%

[WalterMitty]

off the top of my head, i can think of a few states bush would have won had perot not been in the race:

new hampshire, georgia, montana, colorado.

not enough to swing the election.

[Kghadial]

Without Perot every single Gore state would have still gone to Clinton except for New Jersey  and Wisconsin (maybe), Iowa (maybe) . but he would have also won Arkansas, WV, Tenn, Missouri and Lousiana. Worst case scenario for Clinton is 276 EVs in '92 .

[Rococo4]

Without Perot every single Gore state would have still gone to Clinton except for New Jersey  and Wisconsin (maybe), Iowa (maybe) . but he would have also won Arkansas, WV, Tenn, Missouri and Lousiana. Worst case scenario for Clinton is 276 EVs in '92 .

You guys just cant add numbers of votes add say "well bush / clinton" would have won." the presence of perot changed the whole race that cant be determined by simple math.  it changed everything.  Bush and Clinton had to change when Perot got in, then got out, then got in.  The dynamics of what happened cant totally be determined by the numbers.

Also, Pat Buchanan weakened Bush badly before any of us knew Perot would be a factor