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  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, Senator ON Progressive)
  South Central Ohio
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old timey villain
cope1989
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« on: January 15, 2013, 02:13:19 pm »

Anybody know why south central Ohio swung towards Obama in 2012? As far as I can see it's pretty rural and pretty white. Any theories?

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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #1 on: January 15, 2013, 02:32:10 pm »

Anybody know why south central Ohio swung towards Obama in 2012? As far as I can see it's pretty rural and pretty white. Any theories?




Not identical of course, but there are some similarities here as well as differences (this is the 2000-4 swing)... and we can now see there are probably several different things going on at once. At the northwest of both pink areas we have of course the Columbus Metro. Athens hardly needs explaining, either.

Something I find far more interesting and strange is that rural splodge in Western Ohio that has been trending R hard, standing out similarly on the 2000-12 map.
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Franzl
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« Reply #2 on: January 15, 2013, 02:37:25 pm »

I have some connections to that area (Mercer Co.). It's extremely Catholic, and the perceived war on the Catholic Church probably plays a big part there.
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Snowstalker's Last Stand
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« Reply #3 on: January 15, 2013, 03:02:04 pm »

The three southeast counties in Ohio that swung to Romney are coal country. Obama over-performed with rural Midwestern Germans in 2008; the swing in western 0hio is a reversion to the mean.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #4 on: January 15, 2013, 04:29:15 pm »

I have some connections to that area (Mercer Co.). It's extremely Catholic, and the perceived war on the Catholic Church probably plays a big part there.

What war on the Catholic Church?
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old timey villain
cope1989
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« Reply #5 on: January 15, 2013, 05:36:12 pm »

ok, but what about the swing this year in south central Ohio? Anybody have an explanation for that region?
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Franzl
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« Reply #6 on: January 15, 2013, 05:46:55 pm »

I have some connections to that area (Mercer Co.). It's extremely Catholic, and the perceived war on the Catholic Church probably plays a big part there.

What war on the Catholic Church?

I said perceived.
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Ty440
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« Reply #7 on: January 16, 2013, 06:17:54 pm »

ok, but what about the swing this year in south central Ohio? Anybody have an explanation for that region?


Ted Strickland country? Obama under-performed in 2008 and the voters came to realize he wasn't as bad as they thought he would be.

 
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Badger
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« Reply #8 on: January 20, 2013, 12:55:01 pm »
« Edited: January 20, 2013, 01:02:37 pm by Badger »

I have some connections to that area (Mercer Co.). It's extremely Catholic, and the perceived war on the Catholic Church probably plays a big part there.

Bingo. Catholicism and social issues (abortion) are the reason mercer swung from democratic in the 68 map to the most republican county in the state (the decline of organized labor sine the Huffy bike plant moved to china a couple decades ago is second).

The Catholic church's view on social issues is likly the primary reason for the entire (largely german-catholic) region's republican swing. It's most pronounced in the most heavily Catholic Mercer County.

I don't think 'strickland democrats' realizing obama wasn't the Anti-christ can mostly explain this shift. Obama lost ground in most the eastern part od strickland's district along the wv border (though coal surely played some influence here).

Someone mentioned upper ny state's dem shift as due to the economy always sucking there, so they are less likely to take hard times out on an incumbent. I think some of the same dyamic is at play here, along with the ecconomy actually improving somewhat faster thnnormal in that region from what I've heard.
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Franknburger
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« Reply #9 on: January 21, 2013, 01:58:35 pm »

I have some connections to that area (Mercer Co.). It's extremely Catholic, and the perceived war on the Catholic Church probably plays a big part there.

Bingo. Catholicism and social issues (abortion) are the reason mercer swung from democratic in the 68 map to the most republican county in the state (the decline of organized labor sine the Huffy bike plant moved to china a couple decades ago is second).

The Catholic church's view on social issues is likly the primary reason for the entire (largely german-catholic) region's republican swing. It's most pronounced in the most heavily Catholic Mercer County.

Interestingly, the Oldenburger Münsterland, from where most of Mercer County German Catholics immigrated, is one the strongest CDU bastions in Germany. In yesterday's state election in Lower Saxony, it voted 57.8% CDU (plus 12.6 / 12.0% FDP), compared to 17.8 % (Vechta) and 18,2% (Cloppenburg) for SPD, which were the highest CDU shares and lowest SPD shares recorded statewide.
In the 2009 German federal election, Cloppenburg-Vechta was the CDU/CSU's strongest district nationwide (54.5%), even surpassing rural Bavaria!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maria_Stein,_Ohio
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oldenburg_M%C3%BCnsterland

Catholicism appears to very strongly rooted in the Oldenburger Münsterland population - maybe due to its situation on the protestant / catholic border, and the fact that since the early 19th century it has been a catholic enclave in protestant-dominated and -ruled territories. This goes beyond political lean - the Oldenburger Münsterland also shows the highest fertility rate in all of Germany.
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