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  FL-PPP: Hillary ahead
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Author Topic: FL-PPP: Hillary ahead  (Read 2497 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: January 17, 2013, 02:20:06 pm »

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 49%
Jeb Bush......................................................... 44%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 50%
Marco Rubio ................................................... 46%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Hillary Clinton?

Favorable........................................................ 52%
Unfavorable .................................................... 41%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jeb Bush?

Favorable........................................................ 51%
Unfavorable .................................................... 35%

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Marco Rubio's job performance?

Approve ................. .49%
Disapprove............. .36%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_FL_011713.pdf
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1 on: January 17, 2013, 08:31:29 pm »

whites:

Bush 50%
Clinton 43%

Rubio 50%
Clinton 45%

Hispanics:

Bush 46%
Clinton 46%

Rubio 53%
Clinton 41%

(But Clinton has a huge lead over Rubio among blacks and other minorities, which is how she still leads Rubio overall, despite trailing among both whites and Hispanics.)

Also, we again see that unlike Obama, Hillary Clinton is actually *more* popular among olds than youngs.  And in the Clinton/Rubio matchup, Rubio does best among the 30-45 year old crowd, and less well among both the older and younger crowd.  Same with Bush actually.  Against Clinton, his best age group is 30-45 year olds.
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thrillr1111
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« Reply #2 on: January 18, 2013, 01:45:28 am »

The only problem with Rubio  is he will not get the Hispanic vote. The Republican Cubans have made it their business to distance themselves from other Hispanics in the past and in a national election he would surely fail due to getting only the Cuban and white Republican vote, which will not be enough to put them over the top.
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NVGonzalez
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« Reply #3 on: January 18, 2013, 02:50:32 am »

Junk poll.
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Scott
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« Reply #4 on: January 18, 2013, 01:39:19 pm »

Too many Democrats sampled.
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #5 on: January 18, 2013, 03:24:09 pm »

Party ID is flawed.
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Solidarity Forever
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« Reply #6 on: January 19, 2013, 08:58:55 pm »

Approve ................. .49%
Disapprove............. .36%

I'd think more Floridians would at least know who Marco Rubio is.
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Vosem
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« Reply #7 on: January 19, 2013, 10:04:19 pm »

The only problem with Rubio  is he will not get the Hispanic vote. The Republican Cubans have made it their business to distance themselves from other Hispanics in the past and in a national election he would surely fail due to getting only the Cuban and white Republican vote, which will not be enough to put them over the top.

Rubio definitely won the non-Cuban Hispanic vote in Florida in his 2010 Senate race. Now, whether that'll translate to a federal election, I don't know (and frankly I doubt it), but Rubio doesn't have to win the Hispanic vote -- he just has to do very well. Against, say, O'Malley or Cuomo -- somebody who doesn't appeal to Appalachia -- if Rubio can get into the low 40s in terms of Hispanic vote nationwide he should be able to win. Of course, if AR or KY or WV and like states are in serious doubt there's probably no way Rubio can make up for that with Hispanic votes.
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Ty440
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« Reply #8 on: January 20, 2013, 10:04:27 pm »
« Edited: January 21, 2013, 09:00:41 pm by ¡Cuatro años más! »

The only problem with Rubio  is he will not get the Hispanic vote. The Republican Cubans have made it their business to distance themselves from other Hispanics in the past and in a national election he would surely fail due to getting only the Cuban and white Republican vote, which will not be enough to put them over the top.

Cuban- American Exiles= Ancestors were of Primarily of Spanish-European Heritage , very Light /White skin.

Mexican-Americans= run the gaunt from very light pale skin to  brown skin and even some who have deep indigenous  roots have dark brown skin.

Some Cuban-Americans like to speak Castilian Spanish in front of other Hispanics to show there (superiority) from being ancestors to the Spanish Conquerors.

I have heard Cubans disparage some Mexicans as just (Indians), sort of like some people would call whites from WV and Kentucky hillbilly's

Latin American has some weird , funky issues with race, skin color and ancestry.

Prediction if Rubio runs, other than Cubans he adds less than 6% of the  national Hispanic vote which comes to less than 1.5% of the total national vote, he will lose probably half of that right back from xenophobic white voters  if the Democrats run a white Nominee.

Net gain from running Rubio less than 1%

Repubs before you start clamoring for Rubio, study the history of the Conquistadors, the caste system and the differences between Latin-America cultures.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #9 on: January 23, 2013, 06:08:59 pm »

Wow, I was worried that Rubio might prevent Clinton from adding Florida to her column, but it looks like she's still on course for 400+ electoral votes.
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Devils30
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« Reply #10 on: January 23, 2013, 10:58:46 pm »

The FL map itself would be interesting to see. Most likely Hillary would fall back into the 50s in Miami-Dade but almost certainly climb back into the 60s in Palm Beach where Obama somewhat underperformed. She'd flip Volusia back and possibly Flagler as well while likely taking Duval narrowly. Hillary would probably do well around Tampa and improve on Obama in all SW FL but not win any counties (possibly Sarasota but thats it). She'd also get a small swing in northern FL but nothing major.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #11 on: January 24, 2013, 06:30:30 pm »

The only problem with Rubio  is he will not get the Hispanic vote. The Republican Cubans have made it their business to distance themselves from other Hispanics in the past and in a national election he would surely fail due to getting only the Cuban and white Republican vote, which will not be enough to put them over the top.

Rubio definitely won the non-Cuban Hispanic vote in Florida in his 2010 Senate race. Now, whether that'll translate to a federal election, I don't know (and frankly I doubt it), but Rubio doesn't have to win the Hispanic vote -- he just has to do very well. Against, say, O'Malley or Cuomo -- somebody who doesn't appeal to Appalachia -- if Rubio can get into the low 40s in terms of Hispanic vote nationwide he should be able to win. Of course, if AR or KY or WV and like states are in serious doubt there's probably no way Rubio can make up for that with Hispanic votes.

The 2010 US Senate race was a three-way split during the heyday of the Tea Party.  Unless Rubio has been unusually effective and non-polarizing as a Senator he could be up for a difficult re-election bid in a moderate state. He will have a choice between putting his efforts into holding a Senate seat and a candidacy for the Presidency. America will be much less right-wing in 2016 than in 2010.

   
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #12 on: January 24, 2013, 07:34:30 pm »

From one of my posts from December:




Sure D 123
Likely D    94
Likely R   23
Lean D  26
Tipping-point states   29
Lean R   75
Sure R  100
Depends upon nominee as a cultural fit 67


The legitimate swing states in a near-even Presidential race are in pastel colors or white, and they have 156 electoral votes. For a d@mnyankee, cosmopolitan egghead the states in dark green might as well be in deep blue. 

.....

New analysis (I love parallels):

R blowout                 R 415  D 123 D nominee  wins deep red and nothing else
R inverse of 2012     R 321  D 217 D nominee adds states in medium red
R win as in 2004      R  295  D 243 D nominee adds  states in  pink
controversial R win  R  275  D 263  or R 286 D 252  D nominee wins one state in white
controversial D win   D 272 R  266 D nominee adds both states in white
weak D win               D 275 - 290   R 248 - 263 D nominee adds any state in pale blue or aqua other than Florida
D win like 2008        D 373  R 165 D nominee wins all states in any shade of red, the two in white, and all in pale blue and aqua
D blowout  D 417 R 121 R nominee wins no state that Republicans have not lost since at least 1976 (states only in deep blue)   

If it is more extreme, then the election will be a bore. Yes, I consider Illinois a marginal swing state in 2016.               
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