FL-PPP: Hillary ahead

[pbrower2a]

The only problem with Rubio  is he will not get the Hispanic vote. The Republican Cubans have made it their business to distance themselves from other Hispanics in the past and in a national election he would surely fail due to getting only the Cuban and white Republican vote, which will not be enough to put them over the top.

Rubio definitely won the non-Cuban Hispanic vote in Florida in his 2010 Senate race. Now, whether that'll translate to a federal election, I don't know (and frankly I doubt it), but Rubio doesn't have to win the Hispanic vote -- he just has to do very well. Against, say, O'Malley or Cuomo -- somebody who doesn't appeal to Appalachia -- if Rubio can get into the low 40s in terms of Hispanic vote nationwide he should be able to win. Of course, if AR or KY or WV and like states are in serious doubt there's probably no way Rubio can make up for that with Hispanic votes.

The 2010 US Senate race was a three-way split during the heyday of the Tea Party.  Unless Rubio has been unusually effective and non-polarizing as a Senator he could be up for a difficult re-election bid in a moderate state. He will have a choice between putting his efforts into holding a Senate seat and a candidacy for the Presidency. America will be much less right-wing in 2016 than in 2010.

   

[pbrower2a]

From one of my posts from December:

Sure D 123
Likely D    94
Likely R   23
Lean D  26
Tipping-point states   29
Lean R   75
Sure R  100
Depends upon nominee as a cultural fit 67

The legitimate swing states in a near-even Presidential race are in pastel colors or white, and they have 156 electoral votes. For a d@mnyankee, cosmopolitan egghead the states in dark green might as well be in deep blue. 

.....

New analysis (I love parallels):

R blowout                 R 415  D 123 D nominee  wins deep red and nothing else
R inverse of 2012     R 321  D 217 D nominee adds states in medium red
R win as in 2004      R  295  D 243 D nominee adds  states in  pink
controversial R win  R  275  D 263  or R 286 D 252  D nominee wins one state in white
controversial D win   D 272 R  266 D nominee adds both states in white
weak D win               D 275 - 290   R 248 - 263 D nominee adds any state in pale blue or aqua other than Florida
D win like 2008        D 373  R 165 D nominee wins all states in any shade of red, the two in white, and all in pale blue and aqua
D blowout  D 417 R 121 R nominee wins no state that Republicans have not lost since at least 1976 (states only in deep blue)   

If it is more extreme, then the election will be a bore. Yes, I consider Illinois a marginal swing state in 2016.