Map of Canadian Provinces under a U.S. political system

[nclib]

If the Canadian provinces voted under a U.S. political system, which would go Dem or Rep and how strongly?

[Frodo]

Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and the Yukon Territory would likely go Republican -all other provinces, i think, would vote Democratic. 

[Gabu]

Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and the Yukon Territory would likely go Republican -all other provinces, i think, would vote Democratic. 

The Yukon (along with the rest of the north) is actually very liberal; that appears to be a common misconception.

[Frodo]

Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and the Yukon Territory would likely go Republican -all other provinces, i think, would vote Democratic. 

The Yukon (along with the rest of the north) is actually very liberal.

interesting, so what's the partisan breakdown in Canadian politics from province to province? and by partisan, i am referring to Liberals, Conservatives, and New Democrats (the Bloc Quebecois is in a league of its own, though it actually is pretty liberal outside of its obsession with secession). 

[Gabu]

interesting, so what's the partisan breakdown in Canadian politics from province to province? and by partisan, i am referring to Liberals, Conservatives, and New Democrats (the Bloc Quebecois is in a league of its own, though it actually is pretty liberal outside of its obsession with secession). 

We don't actually have partisan breakdowns as registered voters don't declare affiliation when registering to vote.  However, the following is a map of the June 2004 election results in Canada:



Southern BC enlarged:



Southern Ontario enlarged:



Maritime provinces enlarged:



Key:

Red - Liberal Party of Canada
Blue - Conservative Party of Canada
Orange - New Democratic Party of Canada
Cyan - Bloq Quebecois

[Colin]

I heard something about a poll stating that President Bush was actually more popular in the Atlantic Provinces than in Alberta or any place else in Canada. I don't know if its true so if somebody could confirm or deny this that would be great.

[Gabu]

I heard something about a poll stating that President Bush was actually more popular in the Atlantic Provinces than in Alberta or any place else in Canada. I don't know if its true so if somebody could confirm or deny this that would be great.

I've spent twenty minutes looking and I still cannot find that poll, but I have seen it and it does exist, and its results were as you say.

"Popular" is a bad word to use, though.  He still lost by something like a 30- to 40-point margin.

[Alcon]

I heard something about a poll stating that President Bush was actually more popular in the Atlantic Provinces than in Alberta or any place else in Canada. I don't know if its true so if somebody could confirm or deny this that would be great.

I've spent twenty minutes looking and I still cannot find that poll, but I have seen it and it does exist, and its results were as you say.

"Popular" is a bad word to use, though.  He still lost by something like a 30- to 40-point margin.

I am working on this right now, and found the poll.

[Frodo]

interesting, so what's the partisan breakdown in Canadian politics from province to province? and by partisan, i am referring to Liberals, Conservatives, and New Democrats (the Bloc Quebecois is in a league of its own, though it actually is pretty liberal outside of its obsession with secession). 

We don't actually have partisan breakdowns as registered voters don't declare affiliation when registering to vote.  However, the following is a map of the June 2004 election results in Canada:



Southern BC enlarged:



Southern Ontario enlarged:



Maritime provinces enlarged:



Key:

Red - Liberal Party of Canada
Blue - Conservative Party of Canada
Orange - New Democratic Party of Canada
Cyan - Bloq Quebecois

nice -i'm wondering if there is also a map showing population density.  I see British Columbia is mostly all Conservative, with what i think the urban centers of Vancouver and Victoria being Liberal strongholds.  Would that make British Columbia a Liberal province? 
and i see that Manitoba is split equally between Conservatives and New Democrats -am i correct in assuming it is a 'swing' province? Or are the rules different in Canada than it is here in the United States?

[Gabu]

nice -i'm wondering if there is also a map showing population density.  I see British Columbia is mostly all Conservative, with what i think the urban centers of Vancouver and Victoria being Liberal strongholds.  Would that make British Columbia a Liberal province?

No, the Conservative ridings outnumber the other ridings; BC is lightly Conservative.

and i see that Manitoba is split equally between Conservatives and New Democrats -am i correct in assuming it is a 'swing' province? Or are the rules different in Canada than it is here in the United States?

The NDP riding is one single riding, compared to something like 10 Conservative ones; Manitoba is mostly conservative.

[Platypus]

Americans

Basically, that map shows ridings; what the Brits and Aussies call seats, and you'd call congressional districts. Each riding elects a member to the national parliament, and the party/coalition of parties with the most members wins the election. The ridings change in size according to population. In Canada, the government is a coalition of the (Red) Liberal Party and (Orange) New Democratic Party, the two main leftist parties.

In the UK, the left-wing Labour Party holds government, and is not in coalition with anyone as it holds an outright majority-it has the most seats in the lower house of parliament, more then all the others put together. In Australia, the Liberal Party (74 members), the Country Liberal party (1 member) and the National Party (12 members) are in a coalition of right-wing parties to form government.

The map shows which parties hold which riding/seat/congressional district, and you can see that the Red seats, despite being smaller, are the most prevalent, followed by the opposition party, the (Blue) Conservative Party. But when the Orange and Red seats are put together, there are more then the Blue seats and also the Cyan seats, which are from the minor party that only runs in the province of Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois.

Questions?

[Frodo]

forgive me for asking the obvious, but is it safe to assume then, that if Canada were operating according to American rules, that the Democratic Party would have a lock on the Yukon and Northwest territories, Ontario, Quebec, and the Atlantic Maritime provinces, with the Republican Party controlling Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, with British Columbia being a swing province?   

[Alcon]

I was going to make a map, but I am too lazy. Weighted, the results would be:

Alberta
Kerry 63%
Bush 37%

Atlantic Provinces
Kerry 64%
Bush 36%

British Columbia
Kerry 75%
Bush 25%

Manitoba
Kerry 59%
Bush 41%

Ontario
Kerry 74%
Bush 26%

Quebec
Kerry 86%
Bush 14%

Saskatchewan
Kerry 59%
Bush 41%

It does not mention the northern provinces, but I assume they would be somewhere around 75-25 or 80-20.

Proud Liberal: I'm not sure if it extends to the Republican Party, but Bush is not popular. I think it's clear from above that other than a shot at the central provinces (maybe) and a shot at perhaps one of the Atlantic provinces if one of them is much closer (maybe), it would be a 100% Democratic country in every single province.

Maybe I am wrong at this - a Canuck (or know-it-all foreigner from another country) can correct me if so.

EDIT: Of course, this does not take into account that most central provincers would be more likely to vote Bush if they knew more about him, I'd bet - some just do not like his imperialism. On economic issues, they would probably lean Bush some, and social issues they would lean Kerry some.

[Gabu]

forgive me for asking the obvious, but is it safe to assume then, that if Canada were operating according to American rules, that the Democratic Party would have a lock on the Yukon and Northwest territories, Ontario, Quebec, and the Atlantic Maritime provinces, with the Republican Party controlling Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, with British Columbia being a swing province?   

If the Republican Party was exactly the same as the Conservative Party of Canada, then yes, although BC would probably be more solid GOP due to vote splitting.  However, the GOP is further to the right than the Conservative Party.  Alberta would probably be the only province it could potentially win.

[Platypus]

Maybe I am wrong at this - a Canuck (or know-it-all foreigner from another country) can correct me if so.

Yes, Al should be around here somewhere....


:D:D:D

[Frodo]

I was going to make a map, but I am too lazy. Weighted, the results would be:

Alberta
Kerry 63%
Bush 37%

Atlantic Provinces
Kerry 64%
Bush 36%

British Columbia
Kerry 75%
Bush 25%

Manitoba
Kerry 59%
Bush 41%

Ontario
Kerry 74%
Bush 26%

Quebec
Kerry 86%
Bush 14%

Saskatchewan
Kerry 59%
Bush 41%

It does not mention the northern provinces, but I assume they would be somewhere around 75-25 or 80-20.

Proud Liberal: I'm not sure if it extends to the Republican Party, but Bush is not popular. I think it's clear from above that other than a shot at the central provinces (maybe) and a shot at perhaps one of the Atlantic provinces if one of them is much closer (maybe), it would be a 100% Democratic country in every single province.

Maybe I am wrong at this - a Canuck (or know-it-all foreigner from another country) can correct me if so.

EDIT: Of course, this does not take into account that most central provincers would be more likely to vote Bush if they knew more about him, I'd bet - some just do not like his imperialism. On economic issues, they would probably lean Bush some, and social issues they would lean Kerry some.

thanks for the info, but even if Bush is the leader of the Republican Party, he is not THE Republican Party.  He won't be president forever (conspiracy theories notwithstanding).  so i imagine the results would be somewhat different from the ones you provided -though i could be wrong. 

[Gabu]

Proud Liberal: I'm not sure if it extends to the Republican Party, but Bush is not popular. I think it's clear from above that other than a shot at the central provinces (maybe) and a shot at perhaps one of the Atlantic provinces if one of them is much closer (maybe), it would be a 100% Democratic country in every single province.

If it was a moderate Republican, he could probably win.  A Bush-like Republican, however, is not likely.  We already had one of those; his name was Stockwell Day.  He went down in flames.

[Frodo]

Proud Liberal: I'm not sure if it extends to the Republican Party, but Bush is not popular. I think it's clear from above that other than a shot at the central provinces (maybe) and a shot at perhaps one of the Atlantic provinces if one of them is much closer (maybe), it would be a 100% Democratic country in every single province.

If it was a moderate Republican, he could probably win.  A Bush-like Republican, however, is not likely.  We already had one of those; his name was Stockwell Day.  He went down in flames.

yes, but so did Barry Goldwater in '64......

and that's what i'm worried about. 

[Gabu]

Proud Liberal: I'm not sure if it extends to the Republican Party, but Bush is not popular. I think it's clear from above that other than a shot at the central provinces (maybe) and a shot at perhaps one of the Atlantic provinces if one of them is much closer (maybe), it would be a 100% Democratic country in every single province.

If it was a moderate Republican, he could probably win.  A Bush-like Republican, however, is not likely.  We already had one of those; his name was Stockwell Day.  He went down in flames.

yes, but so did Barry Goldwater in '64......

Well, yes, but Stockwell Day went down in flames in 2000, so I don't think much has changed since then.

[Frodo]

Proud Liberal: I'm not sure if it extends to the Republican Party, but Bush is not popular. I think it's clear from above that other than a shot at the central provinces (maybe) and a shot at perhaps one of the Atlantic provinces if one of them is much closer (maybe), it would be a 100% Democratic country in every single province.

If it was a moderate Republican, he could probably win.  A Bush-like Republican, however, is not likely.  We already had one of those; his name was Stockwell Day.  He went down in flames.

yes, but so did Barry Goldwater in '64......

Well, yes, but Stockwell Day went down in flames in 2000, so I don't think much has changed since then.

granted no two situations are exactly alike (aka Iraq and Vietnam), but one must remember that the (conservative) Republican majority we see today was decades in the making, since Goldwater's debacle in 1964.  how can you be so sure that the Conservative Party won't follow a similar course?  It is most unlike its predecessor the Progressive Conservatives, in much the same way that the current Republican Party is no longer the same party as the one that Nelson Rockefeller saw as his own. there are enough similarities to suggest that Stockwell Day could be that catalytical figure that Barry Goldwater was.     

in short, i don't want what has happened to America to happen to Canada, and the sooner this threat is recognized, the better off Canada is going to be.  i feel you are being complacent. 

[Gabu]

granted no two situations are exactly alike (aka Iraq and Vietnam), but one must remember that the (conservative) Republican majority we see today was decades in the making, since Goldwater's debacle in 1964.  how can you be so sure that the Conservative Party won't follow a similar course?

Our current leader of the Conservative Party is actually quite moderate; I actually considered the Conservatives when voting.  Trust me, it's extremely unlikely that someone like Bush could get elected here.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In case anyone's interested... according to Environics (the best Canadian pollster by far) the NDP have gained a lot of ground out West since the last election: especially in Saskatchewan (where they're back to their traditional 30% or so)

[Frodo]

Americans

Basically, that map shows ridings; what the Brits and Aussies call seats, and you'd call congressional districts. Each riding elects a member to the national parliament, and the party/coalition of parties with the most members wins the election. The ridings change in size according to population. In Canada, the government is a coalition of the (Red) Liberal Party and (Orange) New Democratic Party, the two main leftist parties.

In the UK, the left-wing Labour Party holds government, and is not in coalition with anyone as it holds an outright majority-it has the most seats in the lower house of parliament, more then all the others put together. In Australia, the Liberal Party (74 members), the Country Liberal party (1 member) and the National Party (12 members) are in a coalition of right-wing parties to form government.

The map shows which parties hold which riding/seat/congressional district, and you can see that the Red seats, despite being smaller, are the most prevalent, followed by the opposition party, the (Blue) Conservative Party. But when the Orange and Red seats are put together, there are more then the Blue seats and also the Cyan seats, which are from the minor party that only runs in the province of Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois.

Questions?

who draws these ridings?  here in the United States, for the most part, it is done by state legislators with the approval of the governor -essentially, the entire process is controlled by the two major parties: Republican and Democratic, and gerrymandering to favor one party over the other is rife.  how is it done in Canada?  and, for that matter, Australia and Britain?

[Platypus]

In Australia, the seats are determined by the Australian Electoral Commission, an independent body with no partisan bias. I believe there is a similar system in place for both Canada and the UK, although I know there is a bit more gerrymandering in those countries (see the Rurban ridings-ask Al) then in Australia.

Either way, it's better then in the US.

[Frodo]

In Australia, the seats are determined by the Australian Electoral Commission, an independent body with no partisan bias. I believe there is a similar system in place for both Canada and the UK, although I know there is a bit more gerrymandering in those countries (see the Rurban ridings-ask Al) then in Australia.

Either way, it's better then in the US.

interesting.....does Australia also have proportional representation and instant run-off voting?  what about Canada and Great Britain?