2012 without major parties?
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  2012 without major parties?
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RIP Robert H Bork
officepark
Junior Chimp
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« on: February 08, 2013, 11:46:53 AM »

I did the same thing a while back for 2008 (see here).

Basically, suppose the 2012 election proceeds with the same third-party candidates as in real life, but there is no Republican or Democratic Party. How do you think the election goes?
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Donerail
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« Reply #1 on: February 08, 2013, 11:52:47 AM »

Johnsonstomp. In an environment without either of the two major political parties, ability to govern becomes very important, so it'd be Johnson. Anderson would probably be taken up by the bulk of the Democrats, viewing him as somewhat less radical than Stein and more experienced, but Johnson gets crossover vote. Johnson over Anderson over Stein over Goode.
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bballrox4717
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« Reply #2 on: February 08, 2013, 01:00:06 PM »

2012 US Presidential Election Without Obama or Romney

Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson: 37.3 %

Former Representative Virgil Goode: 35.1 %
Former Mayor of Salt Lake City Rocky Anderson: 14.8 %
Activist Jill Stein: 12.6 %

Traditional and Social Conservatives flock to Virgil Goode's campaign. Johnson wins the youth vote, overwhelmingly wins among independents, libertarians and steals some of the liberal and moderate Republican vote. The votes between Democrats and liberals split between Rocky Anderson and Jill Stein.
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Blackacre
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« Reply #3 on: February 08, 2013, 01:21:41 PM »

Rocky and Jill would probably realize that they would steal each other's votes, so Rocky joins the Greens and they run on a ticket together. It'd be closer than you may think, but Johnson would be the favorite, though I would campaign hard for Stein/Anderson.

In short, assuming Johnson wins, we would be the worse for it, but a Stein/Anderson win would be the most satisfying thing ever.
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Donerail
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« Reply #4 on: February 08, 2013, 01:39:51 PM »

I don't see Anderson being VP with Stein. More likely the other way around, since Anderson has actually held office before.
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Blackacre
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« Reply #5 on: February 08, 2013, 02:15:32 PM »

I don't see Anderson being VP with Stein. More likely the other way around, since Anderson has actually held office before.

Good point. But that doesn't change much. Anderson/Stein is no different from Stein/Anderson.

But I will say this: "Rocky" would be the best first name for a President since we almost said "President McGovern".
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