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  Norwegian Parliamentary Election 2013
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Author Topic: Norwegian Parliamentary Election 2013  (Read 46969 times)
Lurker
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« on: January 21, 2013, 12:14:41 pm »

As a Norwegian, I obviously thought that this election deserved a thread on here...

Some Background:

The Norwegian government, led by Jens Stoltenberg, is campaigning for third consecutive term in office, which would be pretty unusual event for Norwegian politics - since 1965, no government has been re-elected more than once.

However, a third term for the "Red-Green" coalition looks pretty unlikely at the moment, as the opposition currently leads by about 20 points in most polls. The polls also shows Labour losing its position as the largest party in Norway; this would be an even more unique event as far as Norwegian politics are concerned, as Labour has been the biggest party at every election since 1921.

There are almost 8 months to go until the lection, and the polls may of course have changed by then. Still, the government is running out of time, and needs to quickly improve its polling to have any chance of winning in September.
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Insula Dei
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« Reply #1 on: January 21, 2013, 12:45:23 pm »

1. Welcome to the forum! Weird that noone had claimed the username 'lurker' yet.

2. You'd have to be a quite unfeeling person not to feel as an outsider that the Norwegian Labour Party deserves a victory this year. What do polls say exactly?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #2 on: January 21, 2013, 12:52:00 pm »

The Left came back from quite a way down last time, of course, though not so close to the election. Oh well.

You'd have to be a quite unfeeling person not to feel as an outsider that the Norwegian Labour Party deserves a victory this year. What do polls say exactly?

Some poll averages here
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3 on: January 21, 2013, 03:32:56 pm »

Why has the Norwegian government become so unpopular in the past year ?

The economy is still doing well, as far as I know. Something important happened ? Scandals ?
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GMantis
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« Reply #4 on: January 21, 2013, 03:34:59 pm »

How was the government's handling of Breivik's massacre regarded?
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Vosem
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« Reply #5 on: January 21, 2013, 03:36:31 pm »

Hoyre becoming the largest party would be kind of amazing...
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Watermelon sin Jamn
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« Reply #6 on: January 21, 2013, 03:49:19 pm »

From what I can gather on the wiki page, it seems the threshold to enter by PR is 4%, and there are also riding seats ? Can you, Lurker, since you started the thread, enlighten us a bit on the voting system, and maybe on the great movements of the campaign, i.e. why the government is so low, who's gaining and losing, and so on.

Thanks for starting it by the way, and welcome here ! Smiley
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Lurker
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« Reply #7 on: January 21, 2013, 04:21:56 pm »

1. Welcome to the forum! Weird that noone had claimed the username 'lurker' yet.

2. You'd have to be a quite unfeeling person not to feel as an outsider that the Norwegian Labour Party deserves a victory this year. What do polls say exactly?

Thanks a lot! I've been following the forum for quite a while, so I found the name  fitting...
The polls do not look good for Labour at the moment, as stated. Though they are not polling that badly themselves, both of their coalition partners are hovering around the 4% treshold.  The opposition has held a pretty clear majority in the past few years - except for right after Utya, when Labour's support greatly increased for a short while (due to Stoltenberg's handling of the tragedy and an obvious sympathy wave towards Labour)


aardal.info/gallup.pdf is a good website, listing the polls of all polling firms, and averaging them as well.

How was the government's handling of Breivik's massacre regarded?

Pretty good at first, and the PM was given much praise, even by many right-wingers. last year though the government was massively critizised for the handling of the massacre, after a "22 of July" Commission came out with a pretty devastating analysis. The opposition did milk this for all it was worth, and the country's biggest newspaper even (strangely) called for Stoltenberg's resignation. Now that the Breivik trial is over, the mood has calmed quite a bit, and I doubt that 22/7/11 will play much part in the election.

Why has the Norwegian government become so unpopular in the past year ?

The economy is still doing well, as far as I know. Something important happened ? Scandals ?

My own explanation would be that it is mostly due to government fatigue after 8 years of the Red-Greens. You are totally right in that the economy is doing well, at least when you compare with practically all other West European countries. Still, the opposition (for obvious reasons) and the media (where bad news and sensationalism is always better than good news) has created a narrative in which everything is somehow going wrong, or is not good enough - a narrative that the Red-Greens has not succeded in changing.
Other than 22/7, there have been several  scandals through the entire governing period, most of them obviously faux scandals and utterly unimportant. Real of imagined though, these "scandals" always get a lot of attention, and this may too be part of the reason why the govt is trailing so badly.
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Kitteh
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« Reply #8 on: January 21, 2013, 04:33:47 pm »

Hey, welcome! I'm always happy when we get more people from different countries. AFAIK we have Danes, Swedes, and Finns but no Norwegians yet, so cool to have you here Smiley

Anyway, even if the right is winning at least the Progress Party is down. It looks like just from the seat estimates on Wiki that with current polling the center-right would have a majority without Progress, which would at least be tolerable (to me).
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freefair
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« Reply #9 on: January 21, 2013, 04:54:10 pm »
« Edited: January 21, 2013, 05:07:40 pm by freefair »

Norway's Centre Party is polling almost as badly as its Swedish neighbor (for differing reasons, obviously)
Seems like there easily could be a Conservative-Progress overall majority, which would liberate them from the need to include the Christian Democrat party, who remain uncooperative at a national level with Progress. It's be a pretty decent government from a libertarian perspective- but I don't approve of Progress's plan to spend the oil surplus, as a fiscal conservative (well, i guess a bit would be OK-  at most 20% in total)
Progress's supposed xenophobia seems to have been massively overstated, they're basically a eurosceptic FDP or socially liberal UKIP. Their requirements seem to be that all citizens and migrants of Norway of all races should practice and live by the basic tents and values of the Norwegian constitution and society- wholly reasonable and agreeable demands in my view. If I had to move there I'd bloody well do my best to learn Bokmal and actually respect national culture.
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Swedish Austerity Cheese
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« Reply #10 on: January 21, 2013, 06:18:56 pm »

You are totally right in that the economy is doing well, at least when you compare with practically all other West European countries. Still, the opposition (for obvious reasons) and the media (where bad news and sensationalism is always better than good news) has created a narrative in which everything is somehow going wrong, or is not good enough - a narrative that the Red-Greens has not succeded in changing.
Other than 22/7, there have been several  scandals.

Sounds similar to the situation in Sweden back in 2006 when the Alliance swept into power. It's not an identical situation (The economy was good but employment wasn't as good as in Norway)
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Secret Cavern Survivor
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« Reply #11 on: January 21, 2013, 09:14:20 pm »

You'd have to be a quite unfeeling person not to feel as an outsider that the Norwegian Labour Party deserves a victory this year.

Indeed. It would be pretty heartbreaking to see them lose now.


Anyway, welcome to the forum, Lurker! Smiley
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Lurker
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« Reply #12 on: January 22, 2013, 08:13:11 am »

Hey, welcome! I'm always happy when we get more people from different countries. AFAIK we have Danes, Swedes, and Finns but no Norwegians yet, so cool to have you here Smiley

Anyway, even if the right is winning at least the Progress Party is down. It looks like just from the seat estimates on Wiki that with current polling the center-right would have a majority without Progress, which would at least be tolerable (to me).

Thanks! Smiley Yeah, I've noticed there being many Swedes And Danes here, but none from Norway, strangely enough.

I don't think the center-right would have a majority without the PP from the current polling, and the chance of that happening is extremly unlikely, IMO. Unless my math is totally wrong, the Wiki page estimates that H+V+KrF will have 70 seats or so - and 85 is needed for a majority. Though there is a good chance that the three will, under such a result, form a minority government without the Progress Party.
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« Reply #13 on: January 22, 2013, 08:26:07 am »

From what I can gather on the wiki page, it seems the threshold to enter by PR is 4%, and there are also riding seats ?
The 2009 thread is excellent on that issue IIRC.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=98718.0
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joevsimp
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« Reply #14 on: January 22, 2013, 02:14:25 pm »

if it happenned to Fianna Fail, it can happen to AP, at least its Hoyre and not FrP overtaking them

will Hoyre want a coalition with them though? surely a Bondevik-style coalition with confidence and supply is more likely?

is there any reason other than being part of the government for Senterpartiet and SV being down in the polls?
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Lurker
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« Reply #15 on: January 23, 2013, 07:19:23 am »
« Edited: January 23, 2013, 07:21:11 am by Lurker »

if it happenned to Fianna Fail, it can happen to AP, at least its Hoyre and not FrP overtaking them

will Hoyre want a coalition with them though? surely a Bondevik-style coalition with confidence and supply is more likely?

is there any reason other than being part of the government for Senterpartiet and SV being down in the polls?

Hyre has traditionally been quite hostile towards FrP, and until recently very sceptical of bringing them into government. This has changed though, and Hyre these days appears positive towards a coalition that includes FrP - though Venstre and KrF are both very sceptical of governing with FrP, so a Bondevik-style solution may indeed be more likely at this point.

As for SV, 2012 was pretty much an annus horribilis for them, with their newly elected leader being involved in a scandal, and shortly afterwards a lot of (quite amusing) internal squabbling within the party.
Senterpartiet has also had some infighting and not many charismatic politicians in their leadership, but they are actually not polling that much worse than their "normal" rate, having a very low "roof" of potential voters due to the nature of the part. I suspect they will win their typical 5-6% at the election.
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Gloucestrian
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« Reply #16 on: January 29, 2013, 11:42:49 am »
« Edited: February 03, 2013, 01:31:39 pm by Gloucestrian »

This is a fascinating election, and I'd be interested in knowing the electoral geography in Norway and other Nordic countries and the history behind it. Why do rural areas(which, in most other countries, including my own tend to vote conservatively) vote for left-wing parties by such overwhelming numbers, while underperforming in urban areas?

Additionally, will Labor be able to energize their base during the course of the campaign the same way they did in 2009? And does the left-wing coalition have any realistic chance of retaining their majority come September, given their 20 point shellacking in the polls?
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Swedish Austerity Cheese
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« Reply #17 on: January 29, 2013, 05:02:28 pm »

This is a fascinating election, and I'd be interested in knowing the electoral geography in Norway and other Nordic countries and the history behind it. Why do rural areas(which, in most other countries, including my own) vote for left-wing parties by such overwhelming numbers, while underperforming in urban areas?

Well too be honest the fact that in Scandinavia "rural areas vote left while urban areas vote right" is really a half-truth and over simplification. Poor rural areas vote for the left. Rich urban areas vote for the right. There are plenty of rich and righ-wing rural areas, and likewise poor and left-wing cities.

In that way we're no different from say Britain. Very urban Chelsea is also very right-wing, while small rural mining towns in the north of England is anything but right-wing.

Norway, Sweden, and Finland  just happen to have more poor rural areas, and more wealthy urban areas than on average.
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Lurker
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« Reply #18 on: January 29, 2013, 07:00:55 pm »

Very good points by Swedish Cheese.
 It could also be noted that part of the reason that (many) rural areas in Norway has a "left-wing"/red-green majority is due to the large support for Senterpartiet on the countryside, which adds many votes to the combined "left". Senterpartiets alliance with the left is a very recent development, however, and the party has traditionally preferred to ally with the centre-right. Senterpartiets switch from the centre-right column to the left column of Norwegian politics therefore makes some rural areas appear much more "left-wing" than earlier (hope that made any sense).

As for the Norwegian cities, they vary a lot when it comes to the left/right divide. Oslo, by far the largest city, has been split pretty much 50-50 at the last two parliamentary elections, but has been right-leaning on the municipal level. Bergen and Stavanger (2nd and 4th larges cities, both in the west) are both clearly Conservative cities. Trondheim on the other hand, is slightly left-leaning. As you can see, it's a pretty mixed picture.

As Swedish Cheese states, there  is (and has always been) a strong element of class-based voting, and this is particularly true for the cities as far as Norway is concerned. The most clearest illustration of this might be Oslo, where the West of the city votes very right-wing, and the East is solidly left-wing
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politicus
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« Reply #19 on: April 27, 2013, 04:48:53 pm »
« Edited: May 01, 2013, 12:23:23 pm by politicus »

The right wing populist Progress Party gets its worst result since 2001 with 13,7% in an Ipsos MMI poll from Dagbladet published today.

Hyre and Fremskrittspartiet no longer have a majority.


Rdt/Red 2,0%

SV/Socialist Left 5,7%

Arbeiderpartiet/Labour 28,0%

Senterpartiet/Centre Party 4,9%

Venste/Liberals 5,4%

Kristelig Folkeparti/Christian Peoples Party 4,7%

Hyre/Conservatives 32,5%

Fremskrittspartiet/Progress Party 13,7%

Others 3,2%

Partibaromeret at TV2 Norge with all major Norwegian polls.
http://politisk.tv2.no/spesial/partibarometeret/
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Leftbehind
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« Reply #20 on: May 01, 2013, 11:37:30 am »
« Edited: May 01, 2013, 11:41:00 am by Leftbehind »

Good to hear; what a horrid coalition that would be.

SV have lost two thirds of their vote since 2005, and yet from that link I can't see who's benefited? Are they d/k/stay at homes?
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #21 on: May 01, 2013, 11:40:07 am »

Why was there a big swing in from the Progress Party to the Conservatives?
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HansOslo
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« Reply #22 on: May 01, 2013, 02:25:46 pm »

Why was there a big swing in from the Progress Party to the Conservatives?

There are many possible reasons. One of them being the economic turmoil in Europe. People are of course concerned that it might spread to Norway, and that makes them turn to the parties that are considered fiscally responsible, and that is Arbeiderpartiet (Labour) on the left, and Hyre (Conservatives) on the right.

Not to mention that Siv Jensen is working hard to ensure that FrP (The Progress Party) will have a place in the next center-right coalition government. That means toning down some of the issues that separate FrP from the rest of the right (global warming for example). That is a problem for some of FrPs voters, that want the party to be more confrontational. I believe Siv Jensen is doing the right thing here. FrP was far more popular under Carl Ivar Hagen, but he never managed to utilize that political capital, because he didn't want to cooperate with the other parties on the right.

Finally, another possible reason for the growth in the support of Hyre is that they have toned down a lot of their more controversial policies. They don't talk as much about privatization and tax cuts as they did in 2005 for example. I think that is why they have gained some voters that used to support Arbeiderpartiet. The only problem is that a lot of the party base thinks they have gone to far towards the center. That isn't really a big problem yet, but it could become one in the future.
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Leftbehind
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« Reply #23 on: May 01, 2013, 02:37:18 pm »

I can't see how moving back to the Conservatives would help their cause. Even a moderated PP is more right-wing than the Conservatives, no?
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politicus
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« Reply #24 on: May 01, 2013, 02:43:18 pm »


Finally, another possible reason for the growth in the support of Hyre is that they have toned down a lot of their more controversial policies. They don't talk as much about privatization and tax cuts as they did in 2005 for example. I think that is why they have gained some voters that used to support Arbeiderpartiet. The only problem is that a lot of the party base thinks they have gone to far towards the center. That isn't really a big problem yet, but it could become one in the future.


Well, that's basically how you win elections in Scandinavia as a big Conservative party these days, go towards the centre, make the public employees feel safe (especially the women) so they trust you not to butcher the welfare state and then slowly move society to the right after you win. Venstre did it in Denmark, Moderaterna is doing it in Sweden and I bet it will work just fine for Solberg in Norway. Generally those parties haven't lost much support. Norway may eventually get something similar to our Liberal Alliance polling 4-5% (depending on PPs tax policies), but it will still be worth it for Solberg and Hyre.
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