Norwegian Parliamentary Election 2013

[batmacumba]

Beautifull page! If they had averages, it would be wonderfull.

[HansOslo]

I can't see how moving back to the Conservatives would help their cause. Even a moderated PP is more right-wing than the Conservatives, no?

I think that depends in the issue. PP are certainly to the right on a lot of cultural issues, as well as on immigration and environmental questions. But a lot of PPs core voters aren't concerned with cutting spending and balancing budgets. They want lower taxes, but also a welfare state just as big as today.

The rank-and-file of the Conservatives also approve of the welfare state, but they are more receptive to the idea of reforming and downsizing it than a lot of the PP voters. The party base wants tax cuts, and would probably (at least to some extent) endorse cuts in the welfare state. In PP the jury is still out on that question, since they believe they can get both.

[politicus]

Good to hear; what a horrid coalition that would be.

SV have lost two thirds of their vote since 2005, and yet from that link I can't see who's benefited? Are they d/k/stay at homes?

Dunno about 2005-09. Since 2009 50%+ of the loss has gone to Labour and 17% to Others incl. Red and the Greens, then 10% to the Liberals (makes sense since they are Social Liberal and green) and 10% to Conservatives, which must be the "join a winning team" effect. Then you got around 10% left which is spread on Center, PP and Christian Peoples Party.

Some voters always go in strange directions when you got a multiparty system. In Denmark we have quite a few people going straight from our super-humanitarian, EU loving, globalization friendly Social Liberals to DPP.

http://blogg.tv2.no/kjetilloset/2013/03/15/dette-er-velgerne-som-snur-ryggen-til-lysbakken/

[Leftbehind]

Yeah, I guessed there would be significant churn (not a bad thing - I envy your PR systems), thanks for the info (annoyingly it includes 2005 polling, as if to remind you they'd already halved at the 2005 general election). The swing from Labour to Tories looks likely to have outweighed any incoming SV defectors. I wonder if much of the movement now is informed by the possibility of shrinking past the threshold.

[politicus]

Norwegian polls are quite volatile at the moment, this one from Norstat for the newspaper Vårt Land from 2/5  has PP +20% and Labour almost closing the gap to the Conservatives.

Red 1,1

Socialist Left 4,3

Labour 28,3

Center 4,7

Greens 1,2

Liberals 3,9

Christin Peoples Party 5,5

Conservatives 29,6

PP 20,5

Others  0,8


A majority of 89 seats to PP + Conservatives. The Liberals is below the threshold and SL is getting dangerously close. Labour has mobilized a lot of "non-voters" and gained a bit from PP and Conservatives, but PP gets their votes back from other parties. Soc. Left has lost 2,3% from the last Norstat poll.

EDIT: I am mainly posting this in the hope that one of our Norwegian posters can explain why PP is bouncing up and down in the polls at the moment. It looks puzzling to me.

[Lurker]

EDIT: I am mainly posting this in the hope that one of our Norwegian posters can explain why PP is bouncing up and down in the polls at the moment. It looks puzzling to me.

Probably just due to bad polling. Nothing has happened that would make them gain 5 points one day and then drop 5 days later. As to why the polls differ so much, I have no good answer, but as you can see from this link, wlidly fluctuating polls are nothing new for PP   --> http://www.aardal.info/hi_lo.pdf

[Kitteh]

Any chance of a Hoyre/Centre/Christians/Venstre government, as opposed to Hoyre/Progress? Center doesn't seem to be too inextricably tied to the left.

[HansOslo]

Any chance of a Hoyre/Centre/Christians/Venstre government, as opposed to Hoyre/Progress? Center doesn't seem to be too inextricably tied to the left.

It wouldn't be the first time Høyre entered into such a coalition. The government of Per Borten (1965-1971) consisted of those parties. And the last center-right government (2001-2005) consisted of KrF/Venstre/Høyre.

In today’s climate however it is almost impossible to imagine a government of the right with SP (Center). They are too far to the left on economic issues, at least for Høyre and Venstre.

A Høyre/KrF/Venstre government is possible, and I know that a lot of the Old Guard in Høyre would prefer that to a government with FrP (Progress). I still think it is unlikely though, mostly because FrP wouldn’t go along with it.

[politicus]

Venstres Liberal views on drugs and their refugee policy has also been mentioned as areas that may be a problem for Høyre (and Progress, of course).

[HansOslo]

Venstres Liberal views on drugs and their refugee policy has also been mentioned as areas that may be a problem for Høyre (and Progress, of course).

I think Venstre knows that they’re not going to get a more liberal immigration policy. Høyre doesn’t really want it, and FrP certainly don’t. If they play their cards right they might get something in return for supporting more strict immigration policies. For example some reforms in the government’s drug policy, environmental policies (which Høyre also want) and maybe some more funds for foreign aid.
But the main dividing lines between the three parties mentioned are on immigration and the environment. They agree on a whole host of other issues.

[politicus]

Venstres Liberal views on drugs and their refugee policy has also been mentioned as areas that may be a problem for Høyre (and Progress, of course).

I think Venstre knows that they’re not going to get a more liberal immigration policy. Høyre doesn’t really want it, and FrP certainly don't. If they play their cards right they might get something in return for supporting more strict immigration policies. For example some reforms in the government's drug policy, environmental policies (which Høyre also want) and maybe some more funds for foreign aid.
But the main dividing lines between the three parties mentioned are on immigration and the environment. They agree on a whole host of other issues.

Its clear that they could strike a deal, but its still a problematic constellation in many ways.

Venste is also "softies" on law and order issues, at least relatively speaking. That could pose a problem too.

Norwegian Venstre and the kind of issues that separates them from the other centre-right parties is closely parallel to Radikale Venstre in Denmark, so I tend to assume that PP hates Venstre the same way DPP hates Radikale Venstre and wouldnt want to work with them in any context, but this may be a false comparison.

How do you see the PP/Venstre relationship?

[Lurker]

Norwegian Venstre and the kind of issues that separates them from the other centre-right parties is closely parallel to Radikale Venstre in Denmark, so I tend to assume that PP hates Venstre the same way DPP hates Radikale Venstre and wouldnt want to work with them in any context, but this may be a false comparison.
How do you see the PP/Venstre relationship?

Your assumption is partly correct. FrP do probably hate Venstre in a very simillar way to the DF/RV relationship. However, FrP is desperate to enter government and would happily join a coalition government with Venstre if necessary. Until recently though FrP's feelings on this has not mattered much, seeing as Venstre used to be adamantly against the thought of a coalition with them. This has now changed though, and Venstre's leadership no longer rules out coalitioning with FrP.

The relationship is still obviously not very good, but seems less antagonistic than under the former Venstre leader Sponheim, who became enemy number 1. for FrP after the 2009 election. That was when Sponheim launched the slogan "Heller Jens enn Jensen" (rather Jens than Jensen)

[Antonio the Sixth]

The relationship is still obviously not very good, but seems less antagonistic than under the former Venstre leader Sponheim, who became enemy number 1. for FrP after the 2009 election. That was when Sponheim launched the slogan "Heller Jens enn Jensen" (rather Jens than Jensen)

A slogan you'd hope any sane right-winger could get behind...

[HansOslo]

I can’t find a link in english for this, but Jens Stoltenberg has recently announced that his government will reform the Norwegian tax code the next couple of years. There are few details as of yet, but it will probably include substantial cuts in the corporate tax rate.

I am curious as to how he intends to do this. One of the most important features of the Norwegian tax code since 1992 is so called “neutrality”. That means that the marginal tax rates are supposed to be pretty much the same, regardless of whether the income derives from employment, capital (investments) or commerce. It will be difficult to substantially cut the corporate tax rate and still retain this neutrality, unless they intend to cut taxes across the board, which I don’t think they really want.

From a political standpoint it is also interesting. It looks like Stoltenberg wants to edge out Høyre from the right on economic issues, where Høyre have turned to the center in last few years. It might also be a signal that SV won’t be a part of the government during the next four years, even if the left actually wins the election.

[politicus]

Just put up a Norwegian link. We are quite a few Scandinavians and Google Translate is an option for the rest.

Too bad Norway is going to participate in the "race to the bottom" regarding corporate taxes. Everything gets much more complex and bureaucratic once you drop the neutrality principle.

No biggie, but since the plans for changing the tax system is not directly related to the coming election its general news and belongs in the Great Nordic Thread.

[HansOslo]

Here it is.

http://www.aftenposten.no/okonomi/Skattesatsene-skal-kuttes_-varsler-Stoltenberg-7201603.html

A few weeks ago he said that the rate definitely will be cut from 28 % where it is today, to 27 %. I wonder if they are going to do anything with taxation of dividends.

[joevsimp]

Just put up a Norwegian link. We are quite a few Scandinavians and Google Translate is an option for the rest.

Too bad Norway is going to participate in the "race to the bottom" regarding corporate taxes. Everything gets much more complex and bureaucratic once you drop the neutrality principle.

No biggie, but since the plans for changing the tax system is not directly related to the coming election its general news and belongs in the Great Nordic Thread.

I wish we had that here in Britain, another suggestion to send on a postcard to Alec Salmond, although I'm not sure he'd be too keen on the kind of rates Norway has thouhg

[HansOslo]

There is a new poll out. I will translate the result in a few hours.

http://www.nettavisen.no/politikk/article3634968.ece

It is good news for the center-right, and very  bad news for the left.

[Tender Branson]

Hmm.

The government has only 35% and the opposition has 60-65%.

I still don't know why exactly.

Norway's economy is doing relatively well, so why the backlash ?

[HansOslo]

The results are as following.

Labour (Ap) - 25,2 %
 
Socialist Left (SV) - 4,4 %

Center Party (Sp) - 5,0 %

The Conservatives (Høyre) - 32,0 %

The Progress Party (FrP) - 19,9 %

The Christian Democrats (KrF) - 5,1 %

The Liberals (Venstre) - 4,1 %

Red (Rødt) - 1,0 %

The Greens (Miljøpartiet de grønne) - 2,2 %

Others - 1,3 %

Tender Branson:

I don’t think anyone really knows why the government is doing so badly. I think a part of the explanation is that people are tired of them, after almost eight years in power. The current debate about gypsies probably also hurts them, especially Labour. The centre-right (at least FrP and Høyre) wants some sort of ban on begging. Labour is sort of all over the place on that question. Another reason is that a part of the Labour base is upset with the government, following the deportation of some asylum seekers (some of whom were children).

For the last few decades a solid economy has been no guarantee for reelection for any government in Norway. The centre-right lost the election in 2005, even though the economy was doing great. That was also the case for Torbjørn Jaglands Labour government in 1997.

[politicus]

Hmm.

The government has only 35% and the opposition has 60-65%.

I still don't know why exactly.

Norway's economy is doing relatively well, so why the backlash ?

The basics are: Government fatigue after 8 years, scandals, negative media coverage and Hoyre becoming more centrist combined with core supporters losing enthusiasm for the government (demobilization), which is of course also a classic fatigue sign.

One aspect I hadn't seen before: Like most SDs in Europe Ap is losing workers. In a poll cited Labours support in the industrial workers union Fellesforbundet is down from 58% to 43%. That's is still quite good compared with other northern European countries, but 49% of Fellesforbundets members would vote centre-right.

The high overall costs in Norway make it tough for the export industry. Norways economy is running on oil, so to speak, and that is hurting other sectors.

Curious about two reasons mentioned in the article: lack of anti-begging law (Stoltenberg seen as too soft?) and sending out asylum seeking children.

[Tender Branson]

Thx, that explains a lot.

[Tender Branson]

On the topic of the gypsies:

We have that "problem" here as well. Only with the difference that Norway could actually deport those people, while we cannot (most of them are Romanian/Bulgarian citizens, so the police needs to let them stay).

Can you even afford live in Norway with begging alone ? Where do they live ? Is it the same as here where they look for some run-down empty houses where they live in inhumane conditions, until they get chased away by infuriated locals or the police with arrest warrants if they are seen in these buildings again ?

[HansOslo]

Yes, I assume Labours policy on begging is hurting them especially much in the cities, where they have already lost a lot of voters to the Conservatives. The Conservatives have played their hand well on the issue, which splits the liberal and conservative wing of the party. They are in favour of a ban, but they don’t make a great deal out of it (except for their local politicians in Oslo). In that way they prevent FrP (who are also in favour of a ban) from making it into a wedge issue.

It should also be mentioned that the current state of SV and SP is a huge problem for Labour. Even if Labour manages to repeat their results from 2009 (where they received somewhere around 35% of the vote), they will still lose if SV and SP are stuck at 4% each. If just one of their coalition partners drops below the 4% threshold, it is game over for the fovernment.

[Tender Branson]

Yes, I assume Labours policy on begging is hurting them especially much in the cities, where they have already lost a lot of voters to the Conservatives. The Conservatives have played their hand well on the issue, which splits the liberal and conservative wing of the party. They are in favour of a ban, but they don’t make a great deal out of it (except for their local politicians in Oslo). In that way they prevent FrP (who are also in favour of a ban) from making it into a wedge issue.

It should also be mentioned that the current state of SV and SP is a huge problem for Labour. Even if Labour manages to repeat their results from 2009 (where they received somewhere around 35% of the vote), they will still lose if SV and SP are stuck at 4% each. If just one of their coalition partners drops below the 4% threshold, it is game over for the government.

It looks to me like it's game over already now.

Or has any incumbent Norway government ever made up a 25-30% deficit in just 3 months ?