Norwegian Parliamentary Election 2013

[HansOslo]

[quote author=Swedish Cheese link=topic=168177.msg3840590#msg3840590
Though we elected him while you were conquered by him...   
[/quote]

And now the Swedes come to Norway to work for us.

[HansOslo]

And now the Swedes come to Norway to work for us.

Haha, well I can't deny it. A third of my friends worked in Norway this summer.

And we are very grateful for it. Most Norwegians find the Swedish workers very service minded and pleasant to deal with.

I think I have only met one guy who was angry at the Swedish guest workers, for taking jobs in the service sector. However, he was the sort of person very few people would think of hiring anyway, with or without the Swedes.

[HansOslo]

The VG poll is really interesting, as it includes a lot of other information as well. For example what percentages the parties get in the different regions of the country. The North is as usual Høyres weakest area, with 25 % support for the party. More surprisingly Western Norway is where the party is doing best, with 32% of the vote. I assumed their strongest area would be Oslo and the Southeast in general.

[HansOslo]

VG has been running daily opinion polls lately and today it went nuts:

H 29%
Ap 28.6%
FrP 14.6%
V 7.3% (!!!!)
KrF 5.1%
Sp 4.9%
MdG 4.1%
SV 3.5%
Rødt 1.2%
Others 1.7%

Quite an unrealistic result for Venstre of course, but it could be the beginning of something.

Venstre will probably break 4% this time, but 7% seem a bit high. SV should also be above 4%. That poll is bad news for AP too. With just a couple of weeks left to go, they should at least be bigger than Høyre.

[HansOslo]

Once there was a blind Norwegian, a deaf Dane and a wheelchair bound Swede who came upon a magic cavern. They were granted one wish each when they entered the cavern. First the blind Norwegian entered. He wished to see again. When he came out, he said
-   I can see.

Then the deaf Dane went into the cave. He wanted to be able to hear. When he returned, he said
-   I can hear.

Then the wheelchair bound Swede rolled into the cave to make a wish. When he came out he said
-   Look mates, I’ve got two new wheels. (Titta kompisar, två nya hjul.)

[HansOslo]

I just read that you're not allowed to sell alcohol in Norway on election day, as to keep people from voting drunk. Very fascinating.

This is my last one.

Have you heard about the Swede who was invited to dinner by the Norwegian? When the Swede arrived at the house of the Norwegian there was a note on the door. This note read “I fooled you. I’m not home”. Then the Swede wrote a new note and placed it on the door. The Swedes note said “Haha, I fooled you. I was never here”.

But yeah. Vinmonopolet is closed, and the stores are not allowed to sell beer on Election Day. Since Election Day this year falls on a Monday, I think the Vinmonopolet and the stores will make a lot of money on Saturday, since they are closed on Sunday. 

[HansOslo]

The results usually follows the usual socio-economic factors, at least to some extent. So high schools in the Western parts of Oslo are usually strong for Høyre (and FrP a few years back), and high schools in rural areas, or immigrant heavy neighbourhoods usually go for Arbeiderpartiet.

There is usually a debate prior to the voting. This can skew the results a lot. Venstres extraordinary results at Valler (as mentioned by Viewfromthenorth) was probably the result of a very good performance by Venstre in the debate.

[HansOslo]

1. Progress Party [far right, the 2011 terrorist was a member of this party]: -8.4%

Anders Behring Breivik was a member of FrP from 1999 to 2004, so he had ceased being a member a long time before the attacks on 22. of july 2013.

And I don't think "far right" is actually a fitting label for FrP. Just as SV can't really be described as "far left".

[HansOslo]

I don't think there are any numbers out as to where the parties did best.

You basically have to piece that together from http://www.samfunnsveven.no/skolevalg

[HansOslo]

Is my understanding correct that handelsgymnasium (Oslo, 62.5% Hoyre) is similar to the German "Wirtschaftsgymnasium", i.e. having a special curriculum focusing on accounting and finance? And the "Oslo By Steinerskole" (31.1% MDG) is probably named after antroposopher  Rudolf Steiner, and following Waldorf pedagogy, right? The "kristne" in "Framnes kristne vidaregåande skule (56.8% CDP) is easy to understand even for a foreigner. So, no surprises here.

As to the other schools, somebody minding to explain some patterns...

Your understanding is correct. These elections really tend to confirm stereotypes .

As for other patterns:

Høyre's best schools are all private schools, with the exception of Oslo Handelsgymnasium.

Arbeiderpartiet's best schools are mostly in the Eastern parts of Oslo. Oslo has historically (and still is to a large degree) been split politically between a West side dominated by Høyre  and East side dominated by Labour. The West is obviously the wealthier area, and the East more working class (and these days, has a much larger number of immigrants).

Senterpartiet's best school seems to have some connection to agriculture. Their best results are all in rural areas, far from the larger cities.

KRF's best results are all in Christian schools, run by (conservative) Missionary organization. Those are the only places where youth will vote KRF in such massive numbers.

As for SV, Venstre and FrP, I can't immediately see any clear patterns, though maybe some of our other resident Norwegians could tell.

SV is basically a middle class party, with a lot of voters with high education and cultural capital. To some extent it is also a very urban party. That also reflects on the young people who support SV. I went to Oslo Katedralskole, which used to be one of SVs best schools. In their heyday there, I think 35 – 40% voted SV, the rest went to Rødt and AP, with a few people (myself included) voted for parties on the right.

Venstre doesn’t really have a base region or core voter group anymore. That’s why I think their results are incredibly random. Their best results were at Valler, which is in Høyres suburban core region. Their next best result was in a small rural area with a few thousand inhabitants, Gloppen. I don’t think there is any pattern here at all.

I’m not sure about FrP. But it seems like their best results are in rural areas.

[HansOslo]

SV is basically a middle class party, with a lot of voters with high education and cultural capital. To some extent it is also a very urban party. That also reflects on the young people who support SV. I went to Oslo Katedralskole, which used to be one of SVs best schools. In their heyday there, I think 35 – 40% voted SV, the rest went to Rødt and AP, with a few people (myself included) voted for parties on the right.

Venstre doesn’t really have a base region or core voter group anymore. That’s why I think their results are incredibly random. Their best results were at Valler, which is in Høyres suburban core region. Their next best result was in a small rural area with a few thousand inhabitants, Gloppen. I don’t think there is any pattern here at all.

I’m not sure about FrP. But it seems like their best results are in rural areas.

That is probably true of SV voters in general, yes. But some of their best results doesn't really fit that pattern: these include Vadsø and Inderøy.

It seems like things are really changing at Katta, I was surprised at how low SV polled there. http://www.samfunnsveven.no/skolevalg/resultat/skole/10060?aar=2005  As recently as 2005 SV+RV got 45% of the vote, and in '07 RV was even the largest party.

As for FrP's best schools, I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of them were focused on "yrkesfag".

Indeed, Vadsø and Inderøy don’t fit the pattern. It might be that there is a remnant of the radical rural tradition. Take NKP for example. Their strongest area in the 1940s and 1950s wasn’t the eastern parts of Oslo, where a lot of workers lived. I believe their best results were in places like Hedemark and in the North. SVs results these places might be explained in light of that.

I actually voted in the election you linked to. I think Høyre was represented by Nikolai Astrup in the debate. But of course it is extraordinary how Venstre and Høyre are actually doing better there now than SV.

You are probably right about FrP and “yrkesfag”. I think Hadsel videregående skole actually is such a place. That should probably be cause for concern for FrP. They are doing really badly in Oslo. Venstre actually beat them. They were barely able to eke out 14,5 % in Akershus. They probably have a solid base among working class people in some rural and suburban areas, but those areas are losing representatives.

[HansOslo]

Erick82: You seem to harbor a lot of the same prejudice against FrP as you accuse them as having against immigrants. I don’t see how you can claim that Carl Ivar Hagen is the worst Norwegian ever after Anders Behring Breivik. Anders Breivik killed close to 80 people in cold blood. Carl Ivar Hagen has created a political party, based on a set of political ideas. Those ideas are obviously different from yours, but they are still completely legitimate, just as legitimate as the social democracy of AP, and Høyre’s “liberal conservatism”.

Regarding today’s poll: It looks like the poll overstates FrP’s numbers. They might be doing better than the 13-15 % we have seen recently, but 21 % is probably a bit too much.

[HansOslo]

My borough (Frogner) came in heavily for the centre-right, with 42,5 % going to Høyre, and 23 % to the remaining parties on the right.