Norwegian Parliamentary Election 2013

[HansOslo]

Why was there a big swing in from the Progress Party to the Conservatives?

There are many possible reasons. One of them being the economic turmoil in Europe. People are of course concerned that it might spread to Norway, and that makes them turn to the parties that are considered fiscally responsible, and that is Arbeiderpartiet (Labour) on the left, and Høyre (Conservatives) on the right.

Not to mention that Siv Jensen is working hard to ensure that FrP (The Progress Party) will have a place in the next center-right coalition government. That means toning down some of the issues that separate FrP from the rest of the right (global warming for example). That is a problem for some of FrPs voters, that want the party to be more confrontational. I believe Siv Jensen is doing the right thing here. FrP was far more popular under Carl Ivar Hagen, but he never managed to utilize that political capital, because he didn't want to cooperate with the other parties on the right.

Finally, another possible reason for the growth in the support of Høyre is that they have toned down a lot of their more controversial policies. They don't talk as much about privatization and tax cuts as they did in 2005 for example. I think that is why they have gained some voters that used to support Arbeiderpartiet. The only problem is that a lot of the party base thinks they have gone to far towards the center. That isn't really a big problem yet, but it could become one in the future.

[HansOslo]

I can't see how moving back to the Conservatives would help their cause. Even a moderated PP is more right-wing than the Conservatives, no?

I think that depends in the issue. PP are certainly to the right on a lot of cultural issues, as well as on immigration and environmental questions. But a lot of PPs core voters aren't concerned with cutting spending and balancing budgets. They want lower taxes, but also a welfare state just as big as today.

The rank-and-file of the Conservatives also approve of the welfare state, but they are more receptive to the idea of reforming and downsizing it than a lot of the PP voters. The party base wants tax cuts, and would probably (at least to some extent) endorse cuts in the welfare state. In PP the jury is still out on that question, since they believe they can get both.

[HansOslo]

Any chance of a Hoyre/Centre/Christians/Venstre government, as opposed to Hoyre/Progress? Center doesn't seem to be too inextricably tied to the left.

It wouldn't be the first time Høyre entered into such a coalition. The government of Per Borten (1965-1971) consisted of those parties. And the last center-right government (2001-2005) consisted of KrF/Venstre/Høyre.

In today’s climate however it is almost impossible to imagine a government of the right with SP (Center). They are too far to the left on economic issues, at least for Høyre and Venstre.

A Høyre/KrF/Venstre government is possible, and I know that a lot of the Old Guard in Høyre would prefer that to a government with FrP (Progress). I still think it is unlikely though, mostly because FrP wouldn’t go along with it.

[HansOslo]

Venstres Liberal views on drugs and their refugee policy has also been mentioned as areas that may be a problem for Høyre (and Progress, of course).

I think Venstre knows that they’re not going to get a more liberal immigration policy. Høyre doesn’t really want it, and FrP certainly don’t. If they play their cards right they might get something in return for supporting more strict immigration policies. For example some reforms in the government’s drug policy, environmental policies (which Høyre also want) and maybe some more funds for foreign aid.
But the main dividing lines between the three parties mentioned are on immigration and the environment. They agree on a whole host of other issues.

[HansOslo]

I can’t find a link in english for this, but Jens Stoltenberg has recently announced that his government will reform the Norwegian tax code the next couple of years. There are few details as of yet, but it will probably include substantial cuts in the corporate tax rate.

I am curious as to how he intends to do this. One of the most important features of the Norwegian tax code since 1992 is so called “neutrality”. That means that the marginal tax rates are supposed to be pretty much the same, regardless of whether the income derives from employment, capital (investments) or commerce. It will be difficult to substantially cut the corporate tax rate and still retain this neutrality, unless they intend to cut taxes across the board, which I don’t think they really want.

From a political standpoint it is also interesting. It looks like Stoltenberg wants to edge out Høyre from the right on economic issues, where Høyre have turned to the center in last few years. It might also be a signal that SV won’t be a part of the government during the next four years, even if the left actually wins the election.

[HansOslo]

Here it is.

http://www.aftenposten.no/okonomi/Skattesatsene-skal-kuttes_-varsler-Stoltenberg-7201603.html

A few weeks ago he said that the rate definitely will be cut from 28 % where it is today, to 27 %. I wonder if they are going to do anything with taxation of dividends.

[HansOslo]

There is a new poll out. I will translate the result in a few hours.

http://www.nettavisen.no/politikk/article3634968.ece

It is good news for the center-right, and very  bad news for the left.

[HansOslo]

The results are as following.

Labour (Ap) - 25,2 %
 
Socialist Left (SV) - 4,4 %

Center Party (Sp) - 5,0 %

The Conservatives (Høyre) - 32,0 %

The Progress Party (FrP) - 19,9 %

The Christian Democrats (KrF) - 5,1 %

The Liberals (Venstre) - 4,1 %

Red (Rødt) - 1,0 %

The Greens (Miljøpartiet de grønne) - 2,2 %

Others - 1,3 %

Tender Branson:

I don’t think anyone really knows why the government is doing so badly. I think a part of the explanation is that people are tired of them, after almost eight years in power. The current debate about gypsies probably also hurts them, especially Labour. The centre-right (at least FrP and Høyre) wants some sort of ban on begging. Labour is sort of all over the place on that question. Another reason is that a part of the Labour base is upset with the government, following the deportation of some asylum seekers (some of whom were children).

For the last few decades a solid economy has been no guarantee for reelection for any government in Norway. The centre-right lost the election in 2005, even though the economy was doing great. That was also the case for Torbjørn Jaglands Labour government in 1997.

[HansOslo]

Yes, I assume Labours policy on begging is hurting them especially much in the cities, where they have already lost a lot of voters to the Conservatives. The Conservatives have played their hand well on the issue, which splits the liberal and conservative wing of the party. They are in favour of a ban, but they don’t make a great deal out of it (except for their local politicians in Oslo). In that way they prevent FrP (who are also in favour of a ban) from making it into a wedge issue.

It should also be mentioned that the current state of SV and SP is a huge problem for Labour. Even if Labour manages to repeat their results from 2009 (where they received somewhere around 35% of the vote), they will still lose if SV and SP are stuck at 4% each. If just one of their coalition partners drops below the 4% threshold, it is game over for the fovernment.

[HansOslo]

I agree with Lurker. It is probably over for the government. I can’t see how they can catch up with the centre-right, barring some sort of black swan event, or the complete implosion of the relationship between the parties on the right.

 I wouldn’t rule out a government consisting of Høyre, KrF and FrP, but it is very unlikely. First of all because KrF wouldn’t be comfortable sitting alongside Høyre and FrP in government.  At the very least they would want Venstre in the government with them, as Lurker mentioned. As I’ve said in another thread, it would probably be easier for Høyre and FrP to work with Venstre in government, as the three parties agree on a lot of issues. The issues that define KrF as a party of the centre-right are mostly social questions like abortion, church and gay marriage, which are pretty irrelevant in the current political climate in Norway. On most other issues they could just as well work with Labour, the Centre party and SV (if SV shed some of the anticlerical rhetoric). 

[HansOslo]

The most likely narrative for the campaign through the summer and early autumn will be for Høyre to say as little as possible about actual policy, as to avoid driving away the voters they have borrowed from FrP and AP.

AP will try to present Høyre and FrP as extremists that want to close down the public schools and the hospitals. The voters won’t believe them of course, since there is no basis in the claim whatsoever. FrP and Høyre support basically all the welfare programs that AP supports.

AP is also busy talking down the Norwegian economy, to scare people from voting for Høyre and FrP. That AP is the only party that can ensure stability, etc.

http://www.aftenposten.no/nyheter/iriks/politikk/Stoltenberg--Krisen-slar-inn-i-norsk-okonomi-7235251.html

I don't think Stoltenberg will get any traction on this though. People have too much confidence in Høyres ability to manage the economy.

FrP will try to win back some of their former voters, maybe over the issue of immigration and

gypsies. But they will not go too far, since they don’t want to scare away Høyre.

Sibboleth:
I think you are right. The left will probably be back in four years. I have absolutely no confidence in Erna Solbergs or Høyres ability to create a lasting coalition.

[HansOslo]

Is there a (remote) chance Stoltenberg could hang on as head of some sort of "grand coalition"? Maybe if AP emerges as strongest party and the right-wing parties can't agree on a coalition deal?

That is extremely unlikely. I could imagine some sort of grand coalition in the event of a serious economic crisis. Let’s say that the oil price plummets and the oil service industry collapses, with unemployment reaching 10% or more. Then I could see AP, Høyre and maybe Venstre, KrF and SP forming a coalition. They might even allow Stoltenberg to be prime minister.

If the parties on the right can’t form a coalition, the most likely outcome is that Høyre will form a government on their own, with support from KrF, Venstre and FrP in parliament. That is actually very likely, if Høyre ends up with more than 25 to 30% of the vote.

[HansOslo]

There is an interesting debate going on, about what the parties of the left should do if they lose the election this fall.

This Saturday, the LO-leader Gerd Kristiansen told the newspaper Klassekampen that SP, SV and AP should build on the current red-green coalition, even if they lose the election.

Several important figures in SP have rejected this. This should come as a surprise to no one. SP have usually thrived in the role as a dealmaker (“hestehandler”), that can cooperate with both the left and the right, in return for concessions on issues relating to agricultural policy. It will be difficult to do this if they are too closely attached to SV and AP whilst in opposition. Another important factor is that SP doesn’t define itself as a party of the left, at least not the same way as AP and SV does.

I suspect that SV also would like to create some distance from AP. SV is at its lowest level of support since the 1980s, and they might not even make the four percent threshold next election. From a political perspective, there is little for them to gain by binding themselves to APs positions on energy, immigration, Europe and taxes for the next four years.


http://www.aftenposten.no/nyheter/iriks/politikk/Sentrale-Sp-politikere-apner-for-a-vrake-SV-og-Ap-7238623.html

[HansOslo]

There are just a few weeks left until the election, so I thought I should give the forum an update as to how everything is progressing so far.

The average from four different polling firms produces this average for July.

Høyre: 32,6 %
Arbeiderpartiet: 28,2 %
FrP: 14,2 %
Venstre: 5,6 %
KrF: 5,3 %
SP: 4,5 %
SV: 3, 8%
MdG: 2,6 %
Rødt: 1,8%

In other words, not much have changed since last month. The parties of the right are on their way towards a landslide victory.

The three most interesting developments these last months (as I see it) are as following.
 
1)   The rise of MdG. MdG stands for Miljøpartiet de Grønne. It is an environmentalist party. They gained a few seats in the last local election (2011), but they have never had a real presence in national politics. They might be able to get one of the seats in Stortinget (parliament) for Oslo.
2)   SV is doing really badly now. If this downward spiral continues they will not be able to break the 4%-threshold, and they will probably be reduced to a single seat (in Oslo). If this should occur, the Stoltenberg government will lose either way.
3)   It appears like KrF and Venstre appear to have stabilized above 4%. That is of course good news for them, and probably good news for the rest of the center right, as they might feel less of a need to distance themselves from Høyre and FrP. 

[HansOslo]

Kystpartiet

They're still around?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

What does that mean?

Indeed they are. Kystpartiet is actually sort of popular in certain parts of the hard right, because they are anti-immigration, as well as being anti-EU (which FrP isn’t).

[HansOslo]

Question for the Norwegian posters:

How many parties are running exactly and where are they running ?

Or do all parties run Norway-wide ?

I think Viewfromthenorth have covered this well. One thing that deserves a mention though is that KrF (the Christian Democrats) didn't use to run Norway-wide before 1945. Before the Second World War they usually just put up candidates in the Bible Belt region, which used to constituencies in the south, the southwest and the west. And that's still their strongest areas.

The south and the southwest of Norway have always stood out politically and culturally. The politics there were defined by the so called counter-culture movements, like language (nynorsk vs. bokmål/riksmål), evangelical Protestantism and prohibition of alcohol. Høyre and Arbeiderpartiet used to be a lot weaker in this region than in the rest of the country.

[HansOslo]

With all due respect to the pollsters, this is not what the media is making it out to be. It's a single poll, taken at a time when a disproportionate amount of the country is still on vacation. Also, both V and KrF are under the threshold by less than half a percent: in other words, their falls are well within the margin of error. Even if the margin of error only went to Høyre, the amount of seats Høyre loses by dropping 0,7% is far lower than what V and KrF gain by going above 4,0%. Also, MdG is disproportionately large since they haven't actually had to answer questions about their policies yet.

It's a warning shot to the opposition parties, but by no means a turnaround unto itself. A very professionally conducted poll, however, and TV2 has explained to the viewers what the margin of error implies in this poll etc much better than they usually would.

(My sympathies lie with the Liberal Party and they are also the party I will likely cast my vote for at my local library in Bærum on September 9. Just so you know why I'm slightly partisan here)

I agree with you about the poll. It seems unlikely that Venstre and KrF are both below the threshold, when most other polls have them somewhere between 5 and 6 %.

I have always wondered why Venstre isn’t doing any better. They have a platform well suited to appeal to the urban middle class. I think a lot of the problem is the party’s politicians, at least on the national level. Considering how Høyre have moved towards the center ground, there are issues (like spending and taxation) where Venstre could actually edge them out from the right.

[HansOslo]

The new Norstat poll gives the best combined result for Høyre+Frp that I can ever remember to have seen. 50,6% and 90/169 seats.

The poll does seem a bit of an outlier though, as Frp share of the right-wing vote is much higher than in most polls, with Norstat giving them 20,9%.

With such a result, I think Frp would have pretty good bargaining cards against Høyre, and could probably demand one of the "big three" posts in the government.

Yeah, that seems a bit high for FrP. Most of the other polls the last months have them at 14-15 %. They might gain some percentages during the election campaign, but I don’t think they will get 20 %. I wouldn’t be surprised if they demanded one of the big three either way. The ministry of finance is the most likely.

[HansOslo]

Indeed. There are people that want to see Hadia Tajik as the Labour party leader at some point in the future. Obviously she will not be Stoltenbergs successor (as she is a bit to young), but she might emerge as a candidate after Trond Giske or Jonas Gahr Støre. First she will need experience from a "heavier" post than Minister of Culture.

[HansOslo]

That really depends on whether or not they win the election next month. I can imagine Stoltenberg staying on as Prime Minister to 2017, but it is very unlikely that he will want to serve as the leader of Arbeiderpartiet in opposition. Since they will probably be out of office in a few months, they will need to think about a leader post-Stoltenberg. And it probably wont be Hadija Tajik, at least for eight-ten years.


Of the younger members of AP, can you think of other possible future contenders for the leadership? There is of course Anniken Huitfeldt, Annette Trettebergstuen and maybe even Eskild Pedersen.

[HansOslo]

They have been using the color green at least for a few elections, maybe more. Environmental issues became salient in Norway from the late eighties an onward, and Venstre have always tried to profile themselves as the “green” party. As well has SV (and SP to a certain extent).

[HansOslo]

There are a lot of interesting developments in the political landscape, just a little more than three weeks before the election.

The current average from the August polls is as following:

Rødt: 1, 9 %
SV: 4, 2 %
AP: 28, 3 %
SP: 5, 6 %.
MDG: 3, 3 %
KrF: 5, 1 %
Venstre: 5%
Høyre: 31, 3%
FrP: 14 %

The left have gained some lost ground since July, mostly because SV are now above the four percent threshold, and SP are trending upwards. AP is currently stuck at a rather low level, so the whole Taxi-thing might not have worked as well for Stoltenberg as they thought.

Høyre are still on course for their best election since the 1980s, but they are slowly losing support. Both Venstre and KrF are somewhat down since July. In today’s edition of Aftenposten (Norway’s biggest newspaper) the leaders from both parties are warning against a Høyre-FrP government. It is probably a strategy to gin up their own supporters, who aren’t that keen on a rightwing government. Depending on how Høyre and FrP react, this might cause problems for the center-right ahead of the election. It is because of this sort of bickering that the Norwegian right haven’t been able to do anything substantial since Kåre Willoch was prime minister in the first half of the 1980s.

The Greens are gaining support at a rapid rate, and if they continue they will break the four percent threshold, and will get 7-8 representatives. Most of their voters come from AP, but also from Venstre and SV. That is of course bad news for SV and Venstre, as they can’t afford to lose that many voters.

[HansOslo]

The link is here. Unfortunately it is in Norwegian. There is a long and a short version. I will try to get the short version (30 questions)  translated in a day or two.

http://www.aftenposten.no/spesial/Finn-ditt-parti-for-stortingsvalget-2013-med-Aftenpostens-valgomat--7268044.html

[HansOslo]

Yeah, my impression is that most questions are along the axis of privatization - public ownership, and economic growth - environmentalism. There were rather few questions about immigration.

[HansOslo]

I could never vote for SV, but I think the talk of the party's impending demise is a bit exaggerated. There is room to the left of AP, especially when the party is led by centrists like Stoltenberg, Støre and Eide. This room can’t be filled by Rødt (they are too incompetent and too far to the left), and MDG is too much of a one-trick-pony. There is no doubt that SV is in serious trouble, but I don’t think they are going away any time soon.