Iraq- final results

[2952-0-0]

Keep in mind that Iraq uses to Hare system which is biased to the big parties so the United Alliance will get about 51% of the seats. They might team up with National Independent Cadre of Elites (al Sadr like types led by a radical newspaper editor), the People's Union, and of course the Kurds to get a 2/3 majority necessary to control the parliament. So I guess Allawis finished.

[minionofmidas]

Kurds did surprisingly well :-).

...amid allegations of massive fraud.

[Silent Hunter]

Keep in mind that Iraq uses to Hare system which is biased to the big parties so the United Alliance will get about 51% of the seats. They might team up with National Independent Cadre of Elites (al Sadr like types led by a radical newspaper editor), the People's Union, and of course the Kurds to get a 2/3 majority necessary to control the parliament. So I guess Allawis finished.

He might get a Cabinet position, if he's lucky. Looked too much like an American stooge for most Iraqis. Only won Anbar (of which more later)

The Kurds hold the balance of power and will probably call a lot of the shots.

Turnout of some provinces (from yesterday's Times):
Dahuk 92%
Basra 72%
Baghdad 51%
Najaf 75%
Nineveh 17%
Anbar 2% (Ouch. Not good at all. Reachout to the Sunnis is a major must-do for the new government).

Overall turnout 58% of registered/eligible (I'm not sure which- Iraqi does have a LOT of under 18s.

[minionofmidas]

[Beet]

Thanks Lewis. I am incompetent with the image sizing. It could be this size though.

[opebo]

Kurds did surprisingly well :-).

Yeah, the results look faked to me.  I think the US bumped up the Kurd vote and reduced the Shia vote.

You are such a dumbass

I'm amazed that anyone could doubt the possibility of fraud here.  Which is what I'm assuming you were implying with this ad hominem.

[Jake]

Kurds did surprisingly well :-).

Yeah, the results look faked to me.  I think the US bumped up the Kurd vote and reduced the Shia vote.

You are such a dumbass

I'm amazed that anyone could doubt the possibility of fraud here.  Which is what I'm assuming you were implying with this ad hominem.

No just a general comment. I didn't want to spam every thread you posted in, so I just posted it here.

[Erc]

Well, the Kurds had ridiculously high turnout and the Sunnis didn't show up.  Not surprising they did so well.

Of course, if the UN (who are of course the real dumbasses here) had drawn constituencies instead of having a national vote, the low Sunni turnout wouldn't affect anything, as the Sunnis would still be represented by their district's parliament member.

Remember also that Allawi is a Shia so I'm sure he got a significant proportion (at least a sixth) of the Shia vote.

Code:

Party			Initial Seats	Final Seats 
United Iraqi Alliance:		132		140	50.9%
D.P. Alliance of Kurdistan:	70		75	27.3%
Iraqi List:			38		40	14.5%
The Iraqis:			4		5	1.8%
Iraqi Turkmen Front:		3		3	1.1%
Nat. Indep. Cadres & Elites: 	2		3	1.1%
People's Union:		2		2        	0.7%
Islamic Group of Kurdistan:	1		2	0.7%
Islamic Org. In Iraq:		1		2	0.7%
National Democratic Alliance:	1		1	0.4%
National Rafidain List:		1		1	0.4%
Recon'liation & Librat'n Blc:	1		1	0.4%
Unallocated Seats:             	19		0

United Iraqi Alliance (UIA):  The Sistani Shia Party, a coalition of al-Hakim's SCIRI (Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq), al-Jafaari's Islamic Dawa Party (al-Jafaari is set to become the PM, according to the BBC), Chalabi's INC (Iraqi National Congress--note that Chalabi has generally fallen out of favor, and is not one of the UIA's official leaders), and various smaller parties.

Democratic Patriotic Alliance of Kurdistan (DPAK): The Kurdish Party, a coalition of Barzani's KDP (Kurdistan Democratic Party) and Talabani's PUK (Patriotic Union of Kurdistan), and a few smaller parties.

Iraqi List:  A coalition of various secularist parties, mainly Shia, dominated by Allawi's INA (Iraqi National Accord).

The Iraqis:  A party lead by the current President, Ghazi al-Yawer.  It's a Sunni party representing primarily the Sunni Shammar tribe.

Iraqi Turkmen Front:  A coalition of various Turkmen parties.

National Independent Cadres and Elites (NICE):  Radical Shia party, with close ties to Al-Sadr.

People's Union:  A euphemism for the Iraqi Communist Party.

Islamic Group of Kurdistan:  Once somewhat aligned with the PUK, this is a very religious Kurdish group, with at least some general ties to Ansar al-Islam and other terrorist organizations.

Islamic Action Organization in Iraq:  Shi'ite party, closely allied with the UIA.

National Democratic Party (NDP):  Social-Democratic party.

National Rafidain List:  Chaldean-Assyrian alliance.  The Christian party.  At least half of its support comes from overseas Iraqis.

Reconciliation and Liberation Bloc:  Sunni party, aligned with the Juburi tribe.  One of Saddam's sons-in-law is a member.  The party closest to the old Ba'athists.

[Erc]

So the Shias have a standard majority by three seats.

In order to get the two-thirds super-majority, they need the cooperation of 44 other members of Parliament.

How do they do this?

Obviously, the most likely is the Shia-Kurd Unholy Alliance, which provides the best prospect in my view of a continued democratic Iraq.

If they don't get along with the Kurds for some reason, they'll have to get the 44 seats some other way...namely, through Allawi's party--which consists of mainly secular Shias and some moderate Sunnis.  Of course, that still leaves the Shias four short (even if they can keep their own two parties in line).  It should be easy enough to get the support of the two seats Islamic Action Organization...and whether they get the next two from the Sadr-ite Shias of NICE or from some combination of left-wing or Sunni parties is up to them.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

IIRC Chalabi's mob ran with the UIA

[M]

Why the heck is a Shi'ite-Kurdish electoral alliance more "unholy" than a black-Puerto Rican-Jewish one, or a Cuban-Southern one?

[Erc]

Well, apart from the entire Sunni-Shia thing...

Eh, it's just a name that I've stuck on the recent cooperation of Kurds and Shias--and it's why I'm confident Iraq will still exist as one country in 20 years.

Or it's my personal way at poking fun at Tsar Alexander I.

[WMS]

And a note about Sistani that is...intriguing, given Sistani's power in these elections and the attempts by Iran to put one of their own as the Prime Minister over his preferred candidates (what, you think the UIA is perfectly united? Don't be silly):

From my February 14, 2005 Newsweek:

"His followers say he's above nationality, as the Roman Catholic pope would be. 'He's the spiritual leader of all the Shia in the world,' says Sheik Jalaladin al-Saghir, imam of an important mosque in Baghdad. 'Iranians as much as Iraqis.'...Sistani followed a different, quietist, philosophy, whereby clerics kept their distance from politics...by all accounts, Sistani and Khomeini were never friends.
Sistani's power is partly financial. As one of only a handful of grand ayatollahs, he is revered throughout the Islamic world and has far more personal followers in Iran than the theocratic hard-liners there. Shia pledge a fifth of their disposable income to their personal marja, or 'object of emulation', and such support translates into a huge income - one that has flowed far more freely to Sistani since the end of Saddam's regime.
It has had no effect on the ayatollah's personal austerity..."

"How much influence will Iran have on Iraq's new leaders? Sistani has carefully kept his distance from official Iranians, refusing, for instance, to receive a delegation from Tehran's foreign ministry last year. But Iranians have poured into Shia areas in southern Iraq, and even bought up some of the houses in Sistani's neighborhood, either to be close to him, or to keep an eye on him."

Hmm...Sistani is more popular in Iran than the entire Iranian government...hmm...intriguing.

And for fun, from earlier in that article, about Sistani's teachings:
"'It's the Shiite equivalent of the Christian Coalition...the Christian Coalition doesn't want pastors to rule America, but it does want Christian ideals to govern policy.' [by Juan Cole of the University of Michigan]" Ralph Reed with POWER!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

And for fun, from earlier in that article, about Sistani's teachings:
"'It's the Shiite equivalent of the Christian Coalition...the Christian Coalition doesn't want pastors to rule America, but it does want Christian ideals to govern policy.' [by Juan Cole of the University of Michigan]" Ralph Reed with POWER!

here comes the theocracy.

[WMS]

And for fun, from earlier in that article, about Sistani's teachings:
"'It's the Shiite equivalent of the Christian Coalition...the Christian Coalition doesn't want pastors to rule America, but it does want Christian ideals to govern policy.' [by Juan Cole of the University of Michigan]" Ralph Reed with POWER!

here comes the theocracy.

Well, from what Mr. Cole said, not quite a theocracy, but certainly more religious involvement in political affairs than we're used to in the U.S. Less than Iran - the article also said Sistani is highly supportive of democracy - but more than Turkey.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Iran and Iraq are both in need of an Ataturk sans genocide.

[opebo]

Iran and Iraq are both in need of an Ataturk sans genocide.

I agree, except for the genocide part.  The good ole US of A could use an Ataturk now as well.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Iran and Iraq are both in need of an Ataturk sans genocide.

I agree, except for the genocide part.  The good ole US of A could use an Ataturk now as well.

What, are you going to invade Canada to "reclaim" New Brunswick?

[Angel of Death]

Keep in mind that Iraq uses to Hare system which is biased to the big parties[...]

This is false. Hare is as unbiased as Sainte-Laguë, but behaves more erratically.

[minionofmidas]

Keep in mind that Iraq uses to Hare system which is biased to the big parties[...]

This is false. Hare is as unbiased as Sainte-Laguë, but behaves more erratically.

Hare is somewhat biased towards small parties actually, much like D'Hondt is somwhat biased towards major parties. It's used in Germany.

[minionofmidas]

and has far more personal followers in Iran than the theocratic hard-liners there.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Not the same.

[Erc]

Iran and Iraq are both in need of an Ataturk sans genocide.

I agree, except for the genocide part.  The good ole US of A could use an Ataturk now as well.

What, are you going to invade Canada to "reclaim" New Brunswick?

Ashburton unjustly stole Edmundston from us.  We must have it back.


MAINE IRREDENTA!!!

[Jake]

[WMS]

and has far more personal followers in Iran than the theocratic hard-liners there.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Not the same.

Err, which parts aren't the same? If you mean 'the theocratic hardliners' and 'the Iranian government', well, there's some powerless moderates left in Iran's government but following the last set of rigged elections it's all hard-liners in control.
If it's something else, err...?

[Angel of Death]

Any constitution that's proposed in a referendum has the additional requirement that it is not rejected in at least three governorates. Based on the turnout, those governorates that have a significant chance of doing so are (in order):

• Anbar
• Ninawa
• Salah ad Din
• Diyala