South Tyrol (Südtirol) regional election - 21 Oct. 2018

[Tender Branson]

This will take place in the fall.

2008 results:

48.1% SÜDTIROLER VOLKSPARTEI (18 seats)
14.3% DIE FREIHEITLICHEN (5 seats)
  8.3% IL POPOLO DELLA LIBERTÀ BERLUSCONI (3 seats)
  6.0% DEMOKRATISCHE PARTEI PD PARTITO DEMOCRATICO (2 seats)
  5.8% VERDI GRÜNE VËRC BÜRGER LISTE CIVICHE (2 seats)
  4.9% SÜD-TIROLER FREIHEIT (2 seats)
  2.3% UNION FÜR SÜDTIROL (1 seat)
  2.1% LEGA NORD SÜDTIROL (1 seat)
  1.9% UNITALIA MOVIMENTO INIZIATIVA SOCIALE (1 seat)

  1.6% DIPIETRO ITALIA DEI VALORI
  1.2% CASINI UDC
  1.2% BÜRGERBEWEGUNG
  1.1% LADINS DOLOMITES
  0.7% SINISTRA DELL'ALTO ADIGE / LINKE FÜR SÜDTIROL
  0.4% SÜDTIROLER KOMMUNISTEN / COMUNISTI ITALIANI

Turnout: 80.1%

http://www.landtag-bz.org/de/wahlen/ergebnisse-landtagswahlen.asp

...

Maps:

[Tender Branson]

Latest poll by Dr. Gruber & Partner:

40.6% SÜDTIROLER VOLKSPARTEI
23.7% DIE FREIHEITLICHEN 
  9.5% DEMOKRATISCHE PARTEI PD PARTITO DEMOCRATICO
  5.8% VERDI GRÜNE VËRC BÜRGER LISTE CIVICHE
  5.6% SÜD-TIROLER FREIHEIT
  3.6% IL POPOLO DELLA LIBERTÀ BERLUSCONI
  1.9% UNION FÜR SÜDTIROL
  1.2% MOVIMENTO 5 STELLE
  0.8% LEGA NORD SÜDTIROL
  7.3% OTHERS

http://www.drgruber-partner.com/de/analyse/107-meinungsforschung/168-sonntagsfrageoktober

[Tender Branson]

The state election takes place on Sunday and the latest poll shows that the SVP might lose its absolute majority.

The SVP's long-time governor of over 20 years, Luis Durnwalder, has retired.

Arno Kompatscher has been elected as the new SVP frontrunner.

Latest poll by Dr. Gruber & Partner:

45% SÜDTIROLER VOLKSPARTEI
14% DIE FREIHEITLICHEN
12% DEMOKRATISCHE PARTEI PD PARTITO DEMOCRATICO
  8% VERDI GRÜNE VËRC BÜRGER LISTE CIVICHE
  6% SÜD-TIROLER FREIHEIT
  7% IL POPOLO DELLA LIBERTÀ BERLUSCONI/LEGA NORD
  2% MOVIMENTO 5 STELLE
  6% Others

[Tender Branson]

On the left, Arno Kompatscher (SVP), the new governor-candidate:



South Tyrol is the wealthiest region in Italy, unemployment is extremely low and the students are highly educated.

Yet despite all of this, the SVP might still lose ground on Sunday simply because of the change in leadership: Durnwalder was Erwin Pröll-like and dominated the political scene, while his successor promises a more modern governing style, away from the ethnic polarisation politics and more in favour of moving South Tyrol ahead economically by using the status quo when it comes to the territorial autonomy. If the SVP does better than expected and keeps the absolute majority on Sunday, this might also be the reason why they kept it: Because Kompatscher avoids the heated ethnic talk that usually benefits the pro-Austrian/pro-"independence" DIE FREIHEITLICHEN  and the SÜD-TIROLER FREIHEIT.

Polls will open at 6am on Sunday and close at 10pm in the night.

About 400.000 people are eligible to vote.

[DC Al Fine]

One party plus systems

[minionofmidas]

All the "Italian" parties look (more or less) like  
when the scale used is sufficiently expressive, of course.

[Tender Branson]

Here's the languages map by town (based on the 2011 Census):

[Tender Branson]

Side fact:

Between the 2001 census and the 2011 census, the percentage of German-speakers increased from 69% to 69.5%, while the Italian-speakers dropped from 26.5% to 26%. The percentage of Ladin speakers remained unchanged at 4.5%

[freek]

Is there any difference between Die Freiheitlichen and Süd-Tiroler Freiheit?
And is it known what the support would be for either independence or a (re)union with Austria?

[Tender Branson]

Is there any difference between Die Freiheitlichen and Süd-Tiroler Freiheit?
And is it known what the support would be for either independence or a (re)union with Austria?

As far as I understand, the Freedomites (Die Freiheitlichen) favour a more or less independent "Free State" with full tax freedom and a close relationship with the real Tyrol and Austria. They also have elements such as the Austrian FPÖ when it comes to foreigners: The Freedomites in both entities say that there are too many foreigners in the country/state, and that immigration must be limited (but while the FPÖ means Eastern Europeans and Muslims, the Freedomites basically mean Italians moving North).

The Süd-Tiroler Freiheit on the other hand is a secessionist party (relatively new) that favors either independence (Südtirol becoming a country on it's own) or re-integration into the "Austrian Fatherland".

They put up billboards such as "Südtirol is not Italy !"



The SVP basically wants the status quo to remain, just with full tax autonomy.

...

When it comes to polls, I found this one:

http://www.tageszeitung.it/2013/07/02/die-sezession-umfrage

It is a poll conducted for the Freedomites and the Süd-Tiroler Freiheit, so you have to take it with a ton of salt - usually ...

But the poll was conducted by Austrian pollster Karmasin, who also does the polls for the parliamentary elections and they were pretty good this year.

In the poll, they only asked German and Ladin speakers about 2 options:

* independence from Italy (54%)
* remain with Italy (26%)

A merger with Austria was not asked.

They also asked if those polled feel as Italians or not:

86% do NOT identify themselves as Italians, while 6% say they feel as Italians.

The Independence vs. stay with Italy question by party:



http://www.tageszeitung.it/2013/07/02/die-sezession-umfrage/

[Tender Branson]

I like how the video in the link with street interviews of German-speaking South Tyrolians is virtually the opposite of what the poll shows: Most of those interviewed in the video say they see themselves as either South Tyrolians or Italians (or both) and by far the most want to stick with Italy. Only a handful think that they should secede or (like one woman said) join Switzerland for economic reasons ...

[minionofmidas]

Most of those interviewed in the video say they see themselves as either South Tyrolians or Italians (or both)

uh... how does that differ from the poll? There's a reason a merger with Austria wasn't asked - nobody wants it or even talks about it. Austrian colors in that poster notwithstanding.

That's not to say that an independent South Tyrol wouldn't have close ties to Austria or that South Tyrol doesn't have close cultural ties to Tyrol even today. (One thing to wonder about is whether an independent South Tyrol wouldn't lead to North Tyrolians asserting their cultural independence from Austria more. It's all academic though - independence isn't going to happen, largely a matter of "wanting it but not wanting it enough" / claiming to want it in order to demonstrate cultural independence from Italy - as long as there's a strong autonomy statute o/c.)

[GMantis]

So the Ladins don't like nationalist German parties at all, but support the mainstream German party about as strongly as the Germans (and much less than the Italians).

[ingemann]

I like how the video in the link with street interviews of German-speaking South Tyrolians is virtually the opposite of what the poll shows: Most of those interviewed in the video say they see themselves as either South Tyrolians or Italians (or both) and by far the most want to stick with Italy. Only a handful think that they should secede or (like one woman said) join Switzerland for economic reasons ...

Not really surprising, that kind of interview favour urban people, who are more likely to take an more cosmopolitarian approach to such things.

[ingemann]

So the Ladins don't like nationalist German parties at all, but support the mainstream German party about as strongly as the Germans (and much less than the Italians).

Most Italians in South Tyrol are descendent of people who was settled there under fascism, it's no surprise that colonial settlers have another perspective than people like the Ladins who have lived there always.

[minionofmidas]

So the Ladins don't like nationalist German parties at all, but support the mainstream German party about as strongly as the Germans (and much less than the Italians).

Makes sense. Indeed, any other pattern would have been surprising, and indeed required an explanation. -_-

[YL]

There is also a Ladin party, Ladins Dolomites.  Last time they got 1.1% province-wide, which was obviously concentrated in the Ladin area.  Their best commune was San Martin de Tor, where they got 27.6%.  (The only other parties over 2% in that commune were the SVP with 59.4% and Die Freiheitlichen with 6.8%.)  This year they've joined forces with two German parties, BürgerUnion and Wir Südtiroler, in a joint list.

[Tender Branson]

Today is election day.

Polls are open from 6am to 10pm.

The votes will be counted tomorrow.

400.958 people are eligible to vote.

Turnout was 80% in 2008 and there will be 3 turnout measurements during the day:

* at 11am
* at 5pm
* at 10pm

Turnout measurements:

http://wahlen.provinz.bz.it/awd_ld_vg.htm

http://www.stol.it/Artikel/Politik-im-Ueberblick/Landtagswahlen-2013/Suedtirol-waehlt-einen-neuen-Landtag

[Tender Branson]

My prediction:

45% SVP
16% Freiheitliche
10% PD
10% Greens
  6% Süd-Tiroler Freiheit
  6% Berlusconi/Lega Nord
  7% Others

Turnout: 77% (-3%)

Probably a SVP-PD coalition.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout at 11am is 22.2% and down by 1% compared with the same time in 2008 (23.2%).

This is based on 468 of the 487 precincts so far in Südtirol.

If the trend holds, my estimate would be not too bad.

I also do not know if these include postal ballots or not (but probably they are included already).

[Tender Branson]

It's also interesting how high turnout is in South Tyrol, relative to their northern brothers and sisters.

Turnout is ca. 80% in the South and 60% in the North (last state election in April).

[Tender Branson]

Final data for 11am turnout is in:

2013: 22.4%
2008: 23.2%

http://wahlen.provinz.bz.it/awd_ld_vg.htm

[Andrea]

Eligible postal voters are 27,908

Out of them, 26,425 have their residence outside Italy.
1,483 eligible postal voters have still their residency in Bolzano province but they are out of it for a long period: 1,360 outside of Italy, 123 in another Italian province.

I am not sure if they are counted in the turnout stats because it says  (at least, in the Italian version of the website) "turnout data is calculcated based on the Alto Adige municipalities". And the majority of postal voters can't be associated to any municipalities as their residency is in a foreign country.

Last week Durnwalder was estimating 5,000 postal votes to be received in the end.

Count will be tomorrow.

[Tender Branson]

Eligible postal voters are 27,908

Out of them, 26,425 have their residence outside Italy.
1,483 eligible postal voters have still their residency in Bolzano province but they are out of it for a long period: 1,360 outside of Italy, 123 in another Italian province.

I am not sure if they are counted in the turnout stats because it says  (at least, in the Italian version of the website) "turnout data is calculcated based on the Alto Adige municipalities". And the majority of postal voters can't be associated to any municipalities as their residency is in a foreign country.

Last week Durnwalder was estimating 5,000 postal votes to be received in the end.

Count will be tomorrow.

Thanks for the info, Andrea.

If 28.000 people have requested absentee ballots, why does Durnwalder think only 5.000 are returned ?

That seems very low.

In Austrian and German elections, at least 80% of postal ballots are usually returned.

I know that many who requested absentees are students living in Innsbruck (North Tyrol) for example, but 5.000 of 28.000 would be strange ...

[minionofmidas]

No, eligible postal voters - people who have the right to request an absentee ballot.