South Tyrol (Südtirol) regional election - 21 Oct. 2018

[Tender Branson]

What an interesting election. Informative thread. Inclined to root for F or STF, but I'd be more than happy to cast a vote for the Lega if that is necessary to prevent the Greens from entering the government.

If the Greens remain relatively stable tomorrow (7-10%) and the SVP does not drop below 40%, I would also rate the chances of a SVP-Green coalition as not that bad.

Because the Greens are inter-ethnic in South Tyrol, they also have many Italian-speaking candidates on their list, which would make them an "Italian" party under the autonomy statute and therefore eligible for a coalition with the SVP (just like the Lega).

I think it could be a reverse situation to Bavaria: in Bavaria, the Greens improved strongly, but got rejected by the CSU for coalition talks in favour of the weaker Free Voters. In South Tyrol, the Lega could improve strongly, but could be rejected by the SVP in favour of the Greens.

PS: SVP-Greens would then be the same coalition as in the Austrian state of Tyrol (ÖVP-Greens).

[Tender Branson]

BTW:

Polls open at 7am tomorrow and close at 9pm, which is different to Austrian elections where polls close at 5pm already.

That means we don't get any meaningful results until 11pm or something.

[Tender Branson]

Polls are now open.

Voters need to bring their election information card (sent by post) with them to the polls + a valid picture ID.

When looking at the candidate list from the SVP, I found out they have 8 men and 7 women selected for the first 15 seats (which is about what they should get today).

On #19 on their list, there's Jasmin Ladurner, a young and hot candidate (but for her to be elected, the SVP would need to get some 55% of the votes):

 

[Tender Branson]

I went to a bar with and Austrian and a South Tyrolean last night. This isn't the set up to a joke, but they both got rather offended when I jokingly suggested that South Tyrol was really a part of Austria - I think the South Tyroleans mostly see themselves as being South Tyrolean first and foremost.

That's correct. Much like the Scottish see themselves first and foremost as Scots and only then as EU-citizens and only then as UKers. Or the Catalans, who see themselves as Catalans and only then as Spanish. Modern South-Tyrolians don't really have that much of a connection with Italy or Austria anymore, because their region is much better off than rest-Italy or Austria.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout until 11am is lower this time, compared with 2013:

2018: 19.7%
2013: 22.4%

http://wahlen.provinz.bz.it/awd_le_vg.htm

[Tender Branson]

5pm turnout is significantly lower than in 2013:

2018: 50.5%
2013: 56.5%

http://wahlen.provinz.bz.it/awd_le_vg.htm

[Tender Branson]

Polls are now closed.

Waiting for the results ...

[Tender Branson]

Interesting to note that turnout fell by a lot in the German and Ladin-speaking towns, but remained the same in the Italian-dominated capital Bozen and increased in the few other Italian-majority towns ... whatever this means in terms of results.

[Tender Branson]

Final turnout (incl. postal ballots):

2018: 70.2%
2013: 74.3%
2008: 80.1%
2003: 82.5%
1998: 85.7%
1993: 89.6%

[Tender Branson]

First precincts of the capital Bozen are in:

34% Lega Nord
  4% Casa Pound

15% PD
10% SVP
  9% Greens

[Tender Branson]

8% of precincts counted:

http://wahlen.provinz.bz.it/dlistvt_ld_vg.htm

SVP: ca. -4% compared with 2013
TK: +15% (new)
Lega: +10%
Freedomites: -12%
Greens: -2%
STF: -1%
PD: -4%
M5S: -1%

Still early.

[Tender Branson]

The Lega is doing really well in the German-speaking areas this time, to the disadvantage of the FPÖ-affiliated Freedomites and STF.

But the centrist TK is also doing extremely well there.

[Tender Branson]

The PD is currently cut in half compared with 2013.

The Greens are down a bit.

But SVP+PD+Greens could still end up around 50%.

Also, SVP+Lega would be possible or SVP+TK.

Currently, it seems Lega and TK are battling it out for 2nd place.

[Tender Branson]

All the far-right parties currently have 30% support, of which the Italian Far-Right (Lega, Fratelli, Casa Pound) has ~20% and the Austrian-affiliated (F, STF, B) has ~10%.

In 2013, it was more like 25% to 5% for the Austrian-affiliated Far-Right.

It seems their voters went straight to Salvini today. Bad day for Strache ...

[Tender Branson]

Final results:



Btw: Jasmin Ladurner, of which I posted pictures above, actually was elected into the new regional parliament. Because of preference votes, which actually mean something in South Tyrol (unlike in Austria). She received the 14th most preference votes on the SVP list and they received 15 seats.

Based on the results, SVP-TK or SVP-Greens looks most likely. SVP-Lega would be possible, but probably too extreme for the SVP.

[Tender Branson]

60.6% Centrist parties (SVP, TK, M5S, Noi)
27.2% Far-Right (13.7% Italian: Lega, Fratelli, CasaPound - 13.5% Austrian/German: F, STF, BU)
11.2% Left-wing parties (Greens, PD, United Left)
  1.0% Right-wing parties (Forza Italia)

In 2013, the Far-Right got 32% with the Austrian/German side taking 25% and the Italian side 7%.

[Tender Branson]

The "TT" reports that a coalition between SVP and Lega could be possible, because the SVP said today that they will enter a coalition with the Italian party that has the biggest representation factor among Italian-speaking people and that of course is the Lega according to the results.

The TK came in 2nd South Tyrol-wide, but they did well everywhere: in the German-speaking and Italian-speaking areas, but not nearly as well as the Lega among Italians.

So, therefore Lega has the best argument that they should be in government and according to their leader in South Tyrol, they also want to govern ...

The SVP will now host exploratory talks with the parties and then their party committee will decide about a coalition partner.

https://www.tt.com/politik/landespolitik/14932909/so-hat-suedtirol-gewaehlt-svp-verluste-debakel-und-ueberraschungen

[Tender Branson]

Of the 35 MPs in the regional parliament, 19 were newly elected yesterday.

9/35 are women, down from 10 in the previous term ...

Maps:

[Tender Branson]

Meanwhile in the Province of Trento, which also had regional elections yesterday:

Lega won a stunning victory (absolute majority), while the PD and their "president" there - Ugo Rossi - crashed and burned ...

http://www.elezioni-2018.provincia.tn.it/Risultati/Coalizioni/000538.html

[VPH]

Why did CasaPound do so comparatively well in Bolzano?

[pilskonzept]

Why did CasaPound do so comparatively well in Bolzano?

Italian speakers disaffected with autonomy (and deindustrialization).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's also an old MSI stronghold, because of it's odd history.

[Tender Branson]

The SVP has decided to start coalition talks with the Lega:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://orf.at/stories/3102125

[bigic]

I didn't really expect that they would start talks with Lega first, considering their political differences compared to the political differences of SVP and the Greens (which is IMO a better option)

[Tender Branson]

I didn't really expect that they would start talks with Lega first, considering their political differences compared to the political differences of SVP and the Greens (which is IMO a better option)

There's nothing strange about this: the Lega did much better among Italian speakers than the Greens, so the Lega has some sort of mandate to be represented in the new government under the autonomy statute, which requires an Italian party as well. And considering the SVP's demands to Lega and Lega's small size in the coalition, it's quite clear that the SVP will continue to dominate and the Lega will just be a small appendix there.