Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 23, 2019, 09:50:13 pm
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls
  TX-PPP: Gov. Perry (R) struggling, Abbott would do better
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: TX-PPP: Gov. Perry (R) struggling, Abbott would do better  (Read 1486 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 48,788
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: January 29, 2013, 01:58:15 pm »

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Rick Perry's job performance?

Approve ................. .41%
Disapprove............. .54%

...

Bill White......................................................... 47%
Rick Perry ....................................................... 44%

Rick Perry ....................................................... 47%
Julian Castro................................................... 42%

Rick Perry ....................................................... 47%
Wendy Davis................................................... 41%

Rick Perry ....................................................... 47%
Annise Parker ................................................. 40%

...

Greg Abbott .................................................... 46%
Bill White......................................................... 39%

Greg Abbott .................................................... 46%
Julian Castro................................................... 36%

Greg Abbott .................................................... 46%
Wendy Davis................................................... 34%

Greg Abbott .................................................... 47%
Annise Parker ................................................. 35%

...

Do you think Rick Perry should run for President in 2016, or not?

He should........................................................ 14%
He should not.................................................. 79%

...

GOP Governor Primary:

Q3 If the candidates for Governor next year were Greg Abbott and Rick Perry, who would you vote for?

Rick Perry ....................................................... 41%
Greg Abbott .................................................... 38%

Q4 Generally speaking, would you like the Republican candidate for Governor next year to be Rick Perry or someone else?

Rick Perry ....................................................... 41%
Someone else................................................. 47%

Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Rick Perry's job performance?

Approve ................. .62%
Disapprove............. .29%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Greg Abbott?

Favorable........................................................ 46%
Unfavorable .................................................... 13%

PPP surveyed 500 Texas voters and an oversample of 400 Republican primary voters
from January 24th to 27th. The margin of error for the overall sample is +/-4.4% and +/-
4.9% for the GOP portion. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or
political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone
interviews.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_TX_129.pdf
Logged
tmthforu94
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,879
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: January 29, 2013, 02:19:55 pm »

I like Perry, but if I were a betting man, I'd say that he won't run for reelection, and that'd be a smart decision. Abbott as the nominee would likely end any chance the Democrats have of picking up the seat, allowing us to focus resources elsewhere.
Logged
Talleyrand
TexasDemocrat
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,275


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: January 29, 2013, 06:09:46 pm »

I like Perry, but if I were a betting man, I'd say that he won't run for reelection, and that'd be a smart decision. Abbott as the nominee would likely end any chance the Democrats have of picking up the seat, allowing us to focus resources elsewhere.

Some people I'm close with have worked for him in the past, and they all say he's not really the type to "go quietly". I doubt he'll retire even if his chances of winning this bout are low.

Logged
Oldiesfreak1854
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,728
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: January 29, 2013, 06:55:49 pm »

ABP: Anybody But Perry!  I despise the man and want Abbott or Dewhurst instead.
Logged
RogueBeaver
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,567
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: January 29, 2013, 06:57:10 pm »

As I've said before, may the best man win.

Logged
RogueBeaver
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,567
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: January 30, 2013, 10:12:27 pm »

Perry says Abbott won't challenge him.

http://viralread.com/2013/01/30/rick-perry-says-ag-greg-abbott-wont-run-against-him-if-he-runs-again/
Logged
Lief 🐋
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 40,643
Dominica


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: February 07, 2013, 02:36:01 pm »

Hopefully Perry run agains. His unpopularity plus the booming Obama economy of Fall 2014 might just be the perfect storm Democrats need in Texas.
Logged
Obamanation
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 411
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: February 07, 2013, 05:41:41 pm »

Hopefully Perry run agains. His unpopularity plus the booming Obama economy of Fall 2014 might just be the perfect storm Democrats need in Texas.

I just don't see how the eventual Democrat can cut into the Republican margins in the Dallas-Ft Worth metroplex and the Greater Houston (Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown) area enough to offset the rest of the state. The Dem would have to landslide in Dallas county (~65% of the vote) and at least come close to even in Tarrant in order to keep the metroplex close to break-even. Such a candidate would also need to keep Greater Houston a relative draw aka 10-15 point win in Harris County and a 10 point win in Ft. Bend in order to then be able (with Latino South Texas and El Paso) to offset the rest of the state. But we're taking about unheard of margins in urban counties and massively cutting the deficit in rural Texas. I just don't see it unless there is a strong right-wing (perhaps Libertarian) candidate than could take 5-10% of the vote in the general.

AND all that would really be a squeaker. I just don't see it happening...

Texas specialists, does that seem accurate? Anyone have any realistic ideas on how a Dem could win Texas now, in margin terms? Again, I just can't find the votes...
Logged
old timey villain
cope1989
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,741


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: February 07, 2013, 07:23:39 pm »
« Edited: February 07, 2013, 07:32:49 pm by cope1989 »

Not from Texas, but I've looked at the previous margins in urban counties and I think you're right. It's hard to find a recent two way gubernatorial race in Texas with an enthusiastic Democratic base so the best I can look at is 2008 and 2012, never mind that 2014 will be a midterm...

1) Dallas is rapidly swinging Dem, and was one of the few urban counties in TX that swung to Obama in 2008 and 2012. I can see a good Democrat getting 60% of the vote there and maybe breaking even in Fort Worth county....maybe

2) There is no way for a Dem to win Harris County right now by more than about 5 points. Obama won there by less than 2 in 2008 and that was arguably the high water mark. Perhaps if the candidate had special appeal in Houston like Bill White then it could be possible. Flipping Fort Bend county seems more likely.

3) He or she must hit 70% in Travis county, tough but not impossible. Obama got 63% there in 2008, but a lot of anti Perry anger there could make this happen.

4) Do very very well with the Hispanic vote in San Antonio and win with 55-60% of the vote in Bexar.

5) Absolutely dominate in south Texas

6) Be competitive with dixiecrats in east Texas (piney woods region)

7) The only hope in west Texas is depressed Republican turnout. They'll get crushed there regardless but with less votes.

If all of this happens, then the Dem has a shot at a very narrow win. But it looks pretty unlikely, especially in a midterm year. I doubt 2014 will be a GOP wave, but there will probably be somewhat of a six year itch. I'd also like to hear from other Texans about all this.
Logged
Badger
badger
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22,337
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: February 18, 2013, 03:09:29 pm »

FWIW: Tarrant County has been almost the perfect bellweather for the state in the last two presidential elections.....
Logged
Blind Jaunting
Kalwejt
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52,760


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: February 18, 2013, 03:11:33 pm »

2006: Perry struggling...

...never mind.

2010: Perry struggling...

...oh, never mind.

I believe when I see.
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,677
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: February 18, 2013, 04:18:10 pm »

ABP: Anybody But Perry!  I despise the man and want Abbott or Dewhurst instead.

Ted Cruz EMBARASSED Dewhurst, to the point where I don't think he could run again for ANYTHING in Texas. The guy now has loser branded on him and I don't think a comeback is possible.
Logged
Jbrase
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,011
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: February 18, 2013, 04:25:13 pm »

Dewhurst is not about to make a comeback after his last tasteless campaign.
Logged
sg0508
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,583
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: February 18, 2013, 07:43:18 pm »

It's really amazing that in a state of that size, the Democratic bench is pretty weak. 
Logged
Jbrase
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,011
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: February 19, 2013, 08:31:27 pm »

It's really amazing that in a state of that size, the Democratic bench is pretty weak. 

The Democrats fail here because their current strategy is to do nothing and when Texas turns Hispanic in a few years expect 60+% of the hispanic vote. Meanwhile the TX GOP is actually working to win over hispanics and actually working to keep hard R counties as they are. This is not an endorsement of the TX GOP (though I am technically a card carrying member), but just the way it is. The TX Dems are losing and will continue to lose TX until either the TX GOP find a way to lose (such as keeping Perry on for another 4 years) or the TX Dems actually start working for votes.
Logged
A-Bob
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,772
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: February 20, 2013, 03:42:49 pm »

I'd say he shouldn't and won't run and if he did it'd be an uphill battle. But we all saw the race against Hutchison last time.
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC