Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 23, 2019, 04:37:59 pm
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls
  TX-PPP: Gov. Perry (R) struggling, Abbott would do better (search mode)
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: TX-PPP: Gov. Perry (R) struggling, Abbott would do better  (Read 1484 times)
Obamanation
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 411
United States


« on: February 07, 2013, 05:41:41 pm »

Hopefully Perry run agains. His unpopularity plus the booming Obama economy of Fall 2014 might just be the perfect storm Democrats need in Texas.

I just don't see how the eventual Democrat can cut into the Republican margins in the Dallas-Ft Worth metroplex and the Greater Houston (Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown) area enough to offset the rest of the state. The Dem would have to landslide in Dallas county (~65% of the vote) and at least come close to even in Tarrant in order to keep the metroplex close to break-even. Such a candidate would also need to keep Greater Houston a relative draw aka 10-15 point win in Harris County and a 10 point win in Ft. Bend in order to then be able (with Latino South Texas and El Paso) to offset the rest of the state. But we're taking about unheard of margins in urban counties and massively cutting the deficit in rural Texas. I just don't see it unless there is a strong right-wing (perhaps Libertarian) candidate than could take 5-10% of the vote in the general.

AND all that would really be a squeaker. I just don't see it happening...

Texas specialists, does that seem accurate? Anyone have any realistic ideas on how a Dem could win Texas now, in margin terms? Again, I just can't find the votes...
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC