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  TX-PPP: Gov. Perry (R) struggling, Abbott would do better (search mode)
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Author Topic: TX-PPP: Gov. Perry (R) struggling, Abbott would do better  (Read 1490 times)
old timey villain
cope1989
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« on: February 07, 2013, 07:23:39 pm »
« edited: February 07, 2013, 07:32:49 pm by cope1989 »

Not from Texas, but I've looked at the previous margins in urban counties and I think you're right. It's hard to find a recent two way gubernatorial race in Texas with an enthusiastic Democratic base so the best I can look at is 2008 and 2012, never mind that 2014 will be a midterm...

1) Dallas is rapidly swinging Dem, and was one of the few urban counties in TX that swung to Obama in 2008 and 2012. I can see a good Democrat getting 60% of the vote there and maybe breaking even in Fort Worth county....maybe

2) There is no way for a Dem to win Harris County right now by more than about 5 points. Obama won there by less than 2 in 2008 and that was arguably the high water mark. Perhaps if the candidate had special appeal in Houston like Bill White then it could be possible. Flipping Fort Bend county seems more likely.

3) He or she must hit 70% in Travis county, tough but not impossible. Obama got 63% there in 2008, but a lot of anti Perry anger there could make this happen.

4) Do very very well with the Hispanic vote in San Antonio and win with 55-60% of the vote in Bexar.

5) Absolutely dominate in south Texas

6) Be competitive with dixiecrats in east Texas (piney woods region)

7) The only hope in west Texas is depressed Republican turnout. They'll get crushed there regardless but with less votes.

If all of this happens, then the Dem has a shot at a very narrow win. But it looks pretty unlikely, especially in a midterm year. I doubt 2014 will be a GOP wave, but there will probably be somewhat of a six year itch. I'd also like to hear from other Texans about all this.
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