Australia - 7 September 2013

[RogueBeaver]

Pie Guy!

[Platypus]

I never understood the rancour over the pie thing. He was short-tempered, but compared to things like Abbott punching walls next to people's heads, it's nothing

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Shorten should only be leader in the event of a blow-out loss... that way, we can be rid of him. A smaller loss will require a leader who can take it to the Libs - considering Shorten's pretty sub-par performance this election shows, he's not a good public performer when HE'S under pressure. Had Combet not quit, I think it would have been his for the taking.

Otherwise it'll be Albo, Clare or Bowen... is it really terrible to think that Burke is out of the running purely because of the lisp?

[Platypus]

If I could choose, i'd go with Mark Dreyfus. He's not a great professional politician, but he's a very smart, very hard-working, and easily trusted man. Put him in, give him 6 years as opposition leader, and save the Labor Party.

[Hifly]

but Denison I would like to see more polling in. If the national mood wasn't for a change of government, I think it would be a lean to Labor, but as that isn't the case, I assume Wilkie will hold on. But it's all on gut, having done any proper analysis.

Polling has shown Labor coming third here and they're preferencing the Libs ahead of Wilkie. If anyone else is going to win Denison apart from Wilkie, it will be the Liberal candidate.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

but Denison I would like to see more polling in. If the national mood wasn't for a change of government, I think it would be a lean to Labor, but as that isn't the case, I assume Wilkie will hold on. But it's all on gut, having done any proper analysis.

Polling has shown Labor coming third here and they're preferencing the Libs ahead of Wilkie. If anyone else is going to win Denison apart from Wilkie, it will be the Liberal candidate.

Labor are preferencing the Liberals in Denison over Wilkie? Where'd you hear about this? And surely Wilkie is closer to them ideologically than the Liberals...

[Hifly]

but Denison I would like to see more polling in. If the national mood wasn't for a change of government, I think it would be a lean to Labor, but as that isn't the case, I assume Wilkie will hold on. But it's all on gut, having done any proper analysis.

Polling has shown Labor coming third here and they're preferencing the Libs ahead of Wilkie. If anyone else is going to win Denison apart from Wilkie, it will be the Liberal candidate.

Labor are preferencing the Liberals in Denison over Wilkie? Where'd you hear about this? And surely Wilkie is closer to them ideologically than the Liberals...

Kevin bonham

[Smid]

but Denison I would like to see more polling in. If the national mood wasn't for a change of government, I think it would be a lean to Labor, but as that isn't the case, I assume Wilkie will hold on. But it's all on gut, having done any proper analysis.

Polling has shown Labor coming third here and they're preferencing the Libs ahead of Wilkie. If anyone else is going to win Denison apart from Wilkie, it will be the Liberal candidate.

Labor are preferencing the Liberals in Denison over Wilkie? Where'd you hear about this? And surely Wilkie is closer to them ideologically than the Liberals...

I suspect Labor's thinking is: "If we preference the Liberals, and they win the seat, we'll win it off them in three years. If we preference Wilkie, we will have to contest against him again in future elections."

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Polling in Tasmania is not very reliable anyway. This is because Tasmanians are good people.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As for LaTrobe, it's in my handful of seats to keep watching before I lock in my final prediction.  It's borderline, I think.

It's the kind of seat that 'ought' to be lost (so a hold would be an 'upset') but might not be, after all.

[Platypus]

Following the good people line, undecided Victorians will break more heavily ALP than the rest of the country, which is why Deakin and LaTrobe are hard to predict - I suspect both have abnormally high levels of swinging voters, and both will break Labor relative to the nation. But the question is how big that gap will be.

[Platypus]

Absolutely a lefty bias, but SO DAMN CORRECT:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/sep/04/tony-abbott-daughters-big-brother

[Hifly]

Van Badham's probably just envious that no-one thinks that she's attractive. On the other hand, I don't think one can deny that Mr Abbott's daughters are very pretty.

[RogueBeaver]

WTF moment: some Labor strategists are suggesting an explicit concession in order to swing some tight marginals? I suspect this BS is coming from former Gillardites. Also, albeit implicitly, from Beattie. Rudd: Many v few.

Aw shucks moment: Gillard-Abbott détente.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If they aren't named, the journalist probably made it up.

[Platypus]

I hope this is geoblocked, because it is the most uncomfortable 31 minutes in history:

http://www.abc.net.au/iview/#/view/42132

[RogueBeaver]

Speaking of former Gillardites, PVO demolishes their claim that things were improving till Rudd started destabilizing again. Also, Labor could be without a permanent leader for weeks. Don't think that's a huge deal myself.

[minionofmidas]

I hope this is geoblocked, because it is the most uncomfortable 31 minutes in history:

http://www.abc.net.au/iview/#/view/42132

Be comforted, it is.

[Oakvale]

Van Badham's probably just envious that no-one thinks that she's attractive. On the other hand, I don't think one can deny that Mr Abbott's daughters are very pretty.

Jesus Christ.

[minionofmidas]

I certainly can deny that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Let's... call a halt to this line of discussion, yes?

[minionofmidas]

Speaking of former Gillardites, PVO demolishes their claim that things were improving till Rudd started destabilizing again. Also, Labor could be without a permanent leader for weeks. Don't think that's a huge deal myself.

Indeed, I fail to see much of a difference compared to the real tl.

(Sorry. This bizarre election - brought to you courtesy of the Australian electoral system which makes it really hard to punish a major party if the opposition also at least kind of sucks - is bringing out the worst in me.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Victoria - Coalition & Other

Melbourne - basically this depends on how loyal Liberal voters are to their cards. So it's basically not possible to call it with any safety, though a Labor gain from the Greens is more likely on a balance of probabilities basis. Either way, an anti-Coalition seat.

Aston - this seat is prone to absurdly large swings (back in 2004 it was the 'safest' Liberal seat in Melbourne IIRC) and, given the general tone of the election, will presumably deliver one in the general direction of the Coalition.

Dunkley - the follies of one of its state MPs can hardly be welcome for the incumbent given the tight margin here, and if there is an against-the-grain result in Victoria it would presumably be here... but I don't think such a result is likely.

McMillan - should be safe enough, given the election.

Higgins - no chance.

Indi - a safe Liberal seat under threat from a Natdependent (as part of a baroque response/revenge for the Liberals contesting Mallee?). I don't know enough to make a serious prediction, but I'll call Independent gain for the sake of hilarity (Mirabella being an objectively awful human being and all that). The result will have no impact on the wider result.

Mallee - in what the Nationals presumably regard as a dick move, the Liberals are contesting this open Nationals seat. In what the Nationals presumably regard as an act of malicious trolling, Labor are directing preferences to the Liberal. The last time Mallee was open the same thing happened and the Nationals nearly lost the seat. Will tentatively call a Nationals hold regardless, as they have a very strong candidate.

[RogueBeaver]

Teddy's predicting a 97-50-3 result.

[Hifly]

I don't like his Western Australia prediction. Maybe under Gillard, but not now.