Australia - 7 September 2013

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/civil-war-pm-and-opponents-braced-to-fight-20130614-2o9oq.html

If the AWU is shaky... eh, this is going to be an ugly couple of weeks... The AWU is very well controlled, this is probably one if the worst signs for the PM.

[RogueBeaver]

The Gordian knot seems no closer to being cut. One way out would be a preemptive dissolution, Samson strategy to be sure but she'd remain leader till E-Day that way. Not that it'll happen...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think there's a lot of messaging going on through the media... no one is saying 'it' but it comes down to dynamics. Early issuing of the writs would be a total panic move and make things much worse

[RogueBeaver]

Dynamics haven't changed: Rudd probably doesn't want to be a caretaker PM till E-Day, he'd only accept if he's convinced that he has a real shot instead of just saving some furniture, neither draft nor ballot. Gillard won't budge and only wants a ballot, while no one wants to pull the trigger... nothing in that equation's changed.

Also: how much worse can things get, at least polling-wise?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

As a friend who works for a Minister (Gillard-backer) said last night "it's really fluid"  - the fundamentals might not be shifting but the dynamics definitely are (they're just not settling) and yes, the polling can get worse.

[RogueBeaver]

Now Howes says that his current position is the same as 2010: he still supports Gillard but won't whip the vote. Headline aside the old Oz article didn't misrepresent his position.

[RogueBeaver]

One MP, John Murphy, has publicly called on Gillard to resign. Dunno what his factional allegiance is. I assume he's a Ruddite since presumably they'd mention if he wasn't.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

He was campaigning with Rudd in W.Sydney yesterday

[morgieb]

One MP, John Murphy, has publicly called on Gillard to resign. Dunno what his factional allegiance is. I assume he's a Ruddite since presumably they'd mention if he wasn't.

On the Right IIRC.

Few people in the NSW Labor party support Gillard IIRC.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It was the right that led to her elevation - Rudd's support base is in the left... oddly.

[Hifly]

Everyone knew Tasmania was going to be dire for the ALP but evidently it may be worse:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2013/06/15/tasmanian-and-federal-leadership-polling/

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The Nielsen Poll out tomorrow will 'apparently' be in line with current polling conventions... looks like the 58-42 Newspoll isn't alone.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Everyone knew Tasmania was going to be dire for the ALP but evidently it may be worse:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2013/06/15/tasmanian-and-federal-leadership-polling/

Things are looking bad (from an ALP point of view) in Tasmania, that's for sure! I have my doubts about Lyons falling though, Dick Adams has a strong following, although he's got a real fight on his hands from the looks of things. In my opinion, Bass and Braddon are gone at this stage, and Franklin is looking like a possible Liberal pickup as well.

The Nielsen Poll out tomorrow will 'apparently' be in line with current polling conventions... looks like the 58-42 Newspoll isn't alone.

Will be interesting to see, looking forward to the next state-by-state breakdown as well.

Never count your chickens before they hatch though, 91 days is a long time in politics.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

2001 and 2004 external circumstances saved a near-doomed government... I think it would take a pretty big external factor to change this dynamic. Howard nor Keating were this far behind 3 months out.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

2001 and 2004 external circumstances saved a near-doomed government... I think it would take a pretty big external factor to change this dynamic. Howard nor Keating were this far behind 3 months out.

Very true, how far behind was Keating anyway?

[morgieb]

My spies are estimating that the Coalition will gain 13 in NSW, 6 in VIC, 2-4 in SA, 2 in TAS, 4 in QLD and WA will break even.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

2001 and 2004 external circumstances saved a near-doomed government... I think it would take a pretty big external factor to change this dynamic. Howard nor Keating were this far behind 3 months out.

Very true, how far behind was Keating anyway?

Keating was this far back about 8 months out... I think it was about 53-46...

[morgieb]

In 1993, 2001 and 2004, all the incumbent governments got lucky.

* 1993 - Hewson's economic policies were seen as too dry, and he couldn't defend them well.
* 2001 - 9/11 and Tampa helped Howard reinforce a reputation of foreign security, Beazley played the campaign too safely.
* 2004 - Latham picked up a reputation as a thug due to the handshake and breaking taxi-drivers arms, and his key policies were too left-wing for middle Australia.

If Abbott was gonna do one of these circuit-breakers, it would've already happened.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

My spies are estimating that the Coalition will gain 13 in NSW, 6 in VIC, 2-4 in SA, 2 in TAS, 4 in QLD and WA will break even.

On these figures, assuming 2 of the Coalition gains in NSW are Lyne and New England, and Fisher in Queensland is counted as an LNP hold:
Coalition: 100-102
ALP: 45-47
Greens: 1
KAP: 1
Independent: 1 (Andrew Wilkie)

2001 and 2004 external circumstances saved a near-doomed government... I think it would take a pretty big external factor to change this dynamic. Howard nor Keating were this far behind 3 months out.

Very true, how far behind was Keating anyway?

Keating was this far back about 8 months out... I think it was about 53-46...

Thanks for that, a rabbit will need to be pulled out of a hat if Labor is to win this year.

In 1993, 2001 and 2004, all the incumbent governments got lucky.

* 1993 - Hewson's economic policies were seen as too dry, and he couldn't defend them well.
* 2001 - 9/11 and Tampa helped Howard reinforce a reputation of foreign security, Beazley played the campaign too safely.
* 2004 - Latham picked up a reputation as a thug due to the handshake and breaking taxi-drivers arms, and his key policies were too left-wing for middle Australia.

If Abbott was gonna do one of these circuit-breakers, it would've already happened.

Very true, although as I stated earlier, you can't count chickens before they hatch. Not to mention Abbott was also leader at the previous election, as opposed to the new faces of Hewson in '93 and Latham in '04. Beazley was leader in '98 as well, although the national security card, played well by Howard , was fairly last-minute in the cycle, and Labor would have had a good chance of winning in 2001, if it wasn't for Tampa and/or 9/11.

[Hifly]

Everyone knew Tasmania was going to be dire for the ALP but evidently it may be worse:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2013/06/15/tasmanian-and-federal-leadership-polling/

I have my doubts about Lyons falling though, Dick Adams has a strong following, although he's got a real fight on his hands from the looks of things.

Obviously his following is not strong enough. A 59/41 lead for the Libs technically puts the seat in an uncompetitive position for Labor. The consensus from internal polling and analysis is that the Labor vote has held up stronger in Franklin than in Lyons, and this poll only confirms that. I'm confident that the Coalition will pick up at least 3 in Tasmania.

[Platypus]

Adam Bandt won't hold Melbourne, I'd say.

[Hifly]

Adam Bandt won't hold Melbourne, I'd say.

Well this seat really represents the one and only possibility of a gain for Labor-although I have my doubts especially after polls have shown hefty swings against them in and around Melbourne. I don't see Liberal voters preferencing Labor over Bandt.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Adam Bandt won't hold Melbourne, I'd say.

Well this seat really represents the one and only possibility of a gain for Labor-although I have my doubts especially after polls have shown hefty swings against them in and around Melbourne. I don't see Liberal voters preferencing Labor over Bandt.

Melbourne comes down entirely to where the Lib preferences go...

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Adam Bandt won't hold Melbourne, I'd say.

Well this seat really represents the one and only possibility of a gain for Labor-although I have my doubts especially after polls have shown hefty swings against them in and around Melbourne. I don't see Liberal voters preferencing Labor over Bandt.

Melbourne comes down entirely to where the Lib preferences go...

It does, although Bandt, as an incumbent MP, should get an increase in his vote, for two reasons:

1. Sophomore surge
2. The electorate of Melbourne is one of the electorates in Australia where the Greens are very popular, even with the national decrease in their vote.

Whether or not this increase will be enough though is the question.

[MaxQue]

Go away, bigot.